Jonathan Kuminga's Current and Future Value from a Warriors Writer's POV

My take on how Kuminga should be valued after turbulent 4.5 years with Warriors

Jonathan Kuminga | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Jonathan Kuminga continues to be a lightning rod for opinions.

As a Warriors writer, I haven't shied away from sharing mine, which have included some positive and some negative.

Among the opinions I've shared recently are:

- The opportunity cost of the Kuminga dream was crushing for the Warriors
- His defense was very valuable in the Hawks' series against the Knicks
- The Dubs were reckless to have offered Kuminga a three-year, $75.2 million contract
- Kuminga's agent is doing him no favors with his media tour

There's a lot of noise here, but lost in most of it is what Kuminga is actually worth.

Kuminga played over 300 games with the Warriors, and I watched almost every single one of them. He's had enough big games to give fans belief he'll put it all together, but he's had enough poor stretches that could make fans conclude he can't be trusted.

Here's where I land. He probably won't reach a superstar ceiling, but he's a legitimate rotation player who has arguably become underrated amid the discourse of the last few days.

Kuminga's Offensive Value

Offensively, Kuminga is a conundrum.

His drives to the basket can look effortless with his quickness and strength. That makes him a great transition player as well as a weapon when attacking a defense that's either in rotation or lacking rim protection.

Against a set defense, Kuminga's perimeter shooting issues work against him. Defenders often give him a few feet to dare him to shoot, and that's normally a good strategy considering Kuminga's career field goal-percentage is 39.0 percent from 10-16 feet; 31.4 percent from 16 feet to the three-point line; and 33.2 percent on threes.

Sometimes he turns down those semi-open perimeter shots to drive anyway, but it's a lot harder to drive when a defender is waiting for you and not playing for the jump shot at all. That's when Kuminga often gets cut off on his drive before rocking into his turnaround jumper, which is an inefficient shot.

The best version of Kuminga isn't having to create much in the half-court. He's best used as a screener and cutter. But that role might mean he doesn't get any touches for several possessions in a row, which isn't easy for anyone to embrace.

There were times with the Warriors when Kuminga got frustrated with this exact issue. He was out of rhythm, so when he did get the ball, he'd force something to try to get himself going.

The Timberwolves have more ball-handling talent than the Warriors, so Kuminga should expect to not get lots of offensive touches. But he seems ready to embrace this role, and if so he'll be good at it as someone who can score in double digits efficiently without needing the ball much.

My guess is Kuminga won't always be happy with his lack of usage, but he's not gonna take down the whole offense to try to score 20 PPG like someone people think he will.

Kuminga's Defensive Value

Kuminga is a versatile defender who doesn't back down from anyone.

In the Knicks series, he battled 7-footer Karl-Anthony Towns for position possession after possession, often keeping the ball out of his hands. In many Warriors games, he was tasked with defending the other team's best ball-handler.

Kuminga has never been good at racking up steals and blocks, but his Defensive EPM has ranked in the 60th percentile or better in four consecutive years. When he's been on the floor, opposing teams have shot the ball worse, which speaks mostly to how his on-ball defense makes things difficult for opponents.

In the playoffs, Kuminga had the second-best defensive rating swing on the Hawks, and the third-best net rating swing overall, per Cleaning the Glass.

That was a huge contrast to his playoff runs with the Warriors, which featured terrible net ratings. During the 2025 playoffs, the Warriors were 9.9 points worse on defense with Kuminga on the floor.

I wouldn't say that Kuminga has graduated to the class of "great defender," but I'd expect him to do more good than harm with the Timberwolves.

Current and Future Value

I recently had this thought experiment when trying to pinpoint Kuminga's value.

I imagined that the Warriors signed a 23-year-old, athletic forward who provides quality rim pressure and defends several positions well. I imagined that the Dubs got this player for a two-year, $12.4 million contract.

In this dream, I was giving the Warriors an A+ grade because he'd likely outplay that contract in 2026-27 with the potential of outplaying it by a lot.

This is my way of saying the Wolves got a steal.

That Kuminga and Steve Kerr butted heads might have some people thinking Kuminga will have issues taking coaching from Chris Finch and future head coaches.

Instead of going into who was at fault for all that drama, I'll just say I think Kuminga is past that and ready to help his teams win however he can.

Kuminga may never be worth $25 million, as that type of money is usually reserved for players with more offensive creation skills. But I'd bet on him being worth at least the non-taxpayer mid-level exception, which will be about $16 million next year.