The Fall of the Warriors Dynasty Part 3: Opportunity Cost of the Kuminga Dream

There are several reasons for the fall of the Golden State Warriors dynasty over the last four seasons.

I explored their mistakes with James Wiseman in Part 1 of this four-part series. I did a deep dive into their decision to lose Chris Paul for nothing in Part 2.

In Part 3, it's time to get into what happened with Jonathan Kuminga.

Drafting Kuminga

The Warriors acquired a 2021 first-round pick as part of the D'Angelo Russell for Andrew Wiggins swap. This was quite a coup. Wiggins proved to be a better player than Russell anyway, and that 2021 first-round pick ended up being the seventh selection of the draft.

Just like in the 2020 draft, Lacob got his guy.

"I thought there was no chance we were ever going to get Jonathan Kuminga,” Lacob told Anthony Slater after the draft. “To me, he was one of—certainly the top five prospects in the draft—but, for me, probably higher. When it looked like he could drop, I couldn’t believe it and neither could Bob (Myers)."

Kuminga was more raw than Franz Wagner, a player Steve Kerr reportedly wanted who ended up going eighth overall. But Lacob was valuing future star potential over someone who could help more in the present.

The Warriors winning the title in 2021-22 supported Lacob's plan, which was that the established stars would do the heavy lifting until the young core of James Wiseman, Kuminga, Moses Moody and Jordan Poole was ready to take over.

Kuminga Plan Hits Major Bump

The 2022-23 season was a mess for the Warriors. Poole regressed, and Wiseman struggled so much that Golden State traded him at the trade deadline.

The Dubs limped to a sixth-place finish. It was clear throughout the year that the established stars needed help that the young core wasn't ready or able to provide.

Though Kuminga was showing flashes of potential, there were warning signs that he was not going to become a high-end starter, let alone a star who could lead the next generation of Warriors basketball.

His three-point shooting had improved (37 percent), but he hadn't increased his low three-point volume, and his free-throw shooting (65.2 percent) was still poor. His ball-handling and playmaking hadn't improved much, which led to a lackluster assist-to-turnover ratio.

The Warriors were better on both offense and defense with him off the court, per Cleaning the Glass.

In hindsight, the Dubs should have traded Kuminga at the 2023 trade deadline. The Raptors were reportedly targeting Kuminga in a trade for OG Anunoby, but the Warriors were either too high on Kuminga's potential or unwilling to face the scrutiny of trading both of their recent top-10 draft picks in the same transaction cycle.

Things turned sour when Kuminga lost playing time in the first-round series against the Kings. Stephen Curry could sense that the locker room was not united, so he had a pre-Game 7 speech to galvanize the team.

Marcus Thompson and Shams Charania reported that "sources with knowledge of the locker room felt was messaging directed at Poole, Jonathan Kuminga and other guys who might’ve been unhappy for reasons such as playing time and role."

This should have been the last straw for Kuminga, but it wasn't.

Warriors Pass on Trading Kuminga for 5 More Transaction Cycles

Summer 2023

The Warriors traded Poole for Chris Paul, but they held on to Kuminga despite having a need for one more impactful player.

During the 2023-24 season, Kuminga was given his biggest role and he put up career-high scoring numbers, but his shooting, ball-handling and playmaking didn't progress.

2024 Trade Deadline

After showing interest in Kuminga the previous trade deadline, the Raptors were reportedly targeting him again as part of a package for Pascal Siakam.

The Bulls were also reportedly targeting Kuminga in a trade for Alex Caruso.

The Warriors turned them both down, not letting go of their dream of Kuminga becoming a star one day.

Summer 2024

The Dubs lost Klay Thompson and Paul, potentially giving Kuminga an even bigger runway for star-level scoring and impact. Suffice to say, the Warriors didn't try to trade him.

Kuminga's field-goal, three-point and free-throw percentages fell off in the first half of the 2024-25 season. There's no doubt his trade value went down, and it was time to move him before his trade value fell even more.

2025 Trade Deadline

Finally, the Warriors seriously entertained trading Kuminga, as he was reportedly part of their package for Kevin Durant. When that deal fell through, the Dubs pivoted to a Jimmy Butler trade in which they didn't need to include Kuminga.

Lineups with Butler, Draymond Green and Kuminga were going to have major spacing issues, so the Dubs should have traded Kuminga right after acquiring Butler. But they once again held on to Kuminga.

The Warriors went 23-8 down the stretch. Kuminga missed 16 of those games, and he had a smaller role in the other 15.

Summer 2025

Following Kuminga's surprisingly strong second-round playoff series against the Timberwolves, the Warriors entered the summer with sign-and-trade offers for the restricted free agent. Most notably, the Kings were reportedly willing to give up a protected first-round pick and Malik Monk for him.

After months of contract standoffs and negotiations, Kuminga and the Dubs agreed to a two-year, $48.5 million contract with a team option in the second season.

Hostage Situation and Trade

It's not clear if the Warriors re-signed Kuminga just to trade him later or they actually believed a star turn could be imminent.

Whatever the case, bringing him back led to a disastrous few months.

Kuminga, whose restricted-free-agency status likely killed his market, probably never wanted to be back with the Warriors. Steve Kerr probably didn't want him back either, but the front office must have incorrectly calculated that having to wait until Kuminga's trade restriction lifted in mid-January wouldn't be an issue.

Once Kuminga got pulled from the starting lineup in mid-November, he became a huge distraction. He eventually demanded a trade.

Kuminga's trade value had never been lower, and it was even worse because rival teams believed the Dubs had no leverage.

At least Kuminga had a tradable contract that could return a star if the Warriors attached some high-value draft capital to their package.

Instead, the Dubs traded Kuminga and Buddy Hield for Kristaps Porzingis, who had missed 75 of his last 134 games with injuries and illnesses.

It was the most anticlimatic ending to 4.5 years of drama and star dreaming.

The Opportunity Cost of Holding onto Kuminga

Kuminga played 6,148 regular-season minutes with the Warriors. He spent over 6,000 possessions on the court with Curry.

Kerr could have given him more freedom to make mistakes, no doubt. But there's no denying that the Warriors invested a ton in his development.

There were several players they could have drafted instead of him, several players they could have traded for him, and several players they could have given more minutes to instead of him.

So many of those roads would have led to more team success.

I'd argue holding onto Kuminga for as long as the Dubs did was the team's biggest front office blunder.

But some of the Warriors' demise wasn't as directly the front office's doing as the Wiseman, Paul and Kuminga mistakes were. I'll get into that for Friday's Part 4.

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