Buyout Market Predictions for Warriors, Other Contenders After Highsmith Deal

The buyout market tends to heat up right at the end of February. That's because players must be bought out or waived by March 1 to be eligible for the postseason with their new teams.

Understandably, most contenders who have an open roster are waiting until at least late February to see who will be available before filling it.

That's exactly where the Golden State Warriors find themselves.

They would have been justified signing wing Haywood Highsmith before knowing who else would become available. But he ended up going to the Suns, which leaves the current wing market dry.

Here are some predictions for which players get bought out and where they land. Note that I'm loosely defining "contender" as any team with a record over .500.

Roster Spots Available for Contenders

Contenders with Full Rosters: Cavaliers, Pistons, Lakers, Knicks, 76ers, Suns, Thunder

All of these teams will likely stay out of the buyout market sweepstakes. They could enter the sweepstakes by releasing someone under contract.

Contenders with 1 Open Roster Spot: Spurs, Rockets, Timberwolves, Heat, Magic, Raptors, Warriors

Note that teams are allowed to leave their 15th roster open, which means none of these teams have to sign a player. But expect all of them to be active on the buyout market.

Contender with 2 Open Roster Spots: Nuggets

One of these spots will go to two-way standout Spencer Jones unless the Nuggets and Jones can't agree to contract terms. They will likely come to an agreement soon, which would make them the eighth over-.500 with one roster spot.

Contender with 3 Open Roster Spots Looking to Duck the Tax: Celtics

In my previous buyout market prediction, I had the Celtics signing Khris Middleton. But after reading an article from The Third Apron's Yossi Gozlan about how they are trying to stay under the tax, it's clear that they will not be players on the buyout market. The two spots to get to the 14-player minimum will go to Max Shulga and Jon Tonje.

Contender with Major Buyout Market Signing Restriction: Warriors

The Warriors, Knicks and Cavaliers are the only three teams that can't sign a player making over $14.1 million this season. That's because they are the only teams over the first apron.

The Knicks and Cavs already have full rosters. The Warriors will not be able to sign Middleton, Klay Thompson or Bogdan Bogdanovic if they hit the market.

Notes on Teams Likely to Buy Out Players

Clippers Looking to Duck Tax

The Clippers are $1.5 million over the luxury tax line, which is why they will almost assuredly have buyout conversations with veterans Bogdan Bogdanovic, Nicolas Batum and Brook Lopez. The easiest solution is for Bogdanovic to accept a buyout that gets them under the tax. But if he doesn't agree to it or he simply doesn't want to give up enough money to get LA under the tax line, the Clips could look to buy out Batum, who was a healthy DNP the last two games. I'm predicting they buy out both Bogdanovic and Batum.

Mavericks Need to Cut 2 Players for Cisse, Nembhard

The Mavs will want to convert two-way players Mousa Cisse and Ryan Nembhard soon, which means their veterans are especially likely buyout candidates. Middleton is the most likely to get bought because he's a free agent after this season. Klay Thompson is under contract for $17.5 million next season, which complicates buyout discussions, but I'm betting on him hitting the market.

Predictions

Middleton to Denver

Middleton would fit well anywhere, but he'd especially intriguing as a bench scorer in Denver. The Nuggets have a minus-4.8 net rating with Nikola Jokic off the court, so they should be looking into any possible solution to that issue.

Thompson to San Antonio

I'll stick with my original prediction here. Of the true title contenders, the Spurs are arguably most in need of a three-point shooter, and Thompson is making 37.5 percent of his 7.6 three-point attempts per game.

Batum Spurns Warriors, Signs with Rockets

I've speculated that Batum would be the Warriors' biggest buyout target, and they'd have a decent chance at getting him if he's looking for consistent playing time. But if he's more interested in joining a team with better title chances, he could prefer the Rockets, who would love another reliable shooter off the bench.

Warriors Pivot to Kyle Anderson

The Grizzlies have one open roster spot and three two-way players they could look to convert in Javon Small, Olivier-Maxence Prosper and Jahmai Mashack. That means Anderson is a strong buyout candidate, and the Warriors would be a likely destination for the 32-year-old forward.

Anderson needs to play with a stretch 5 to be at his best, and the Warriors have three of them in Kristaps Porzingis, Al Horford and Quinten Post.