Inside The Warriors

How Kristaps Porzingis Will Help Improve 3 Warriors' Weaknesses

If healthy, Porzingis can have a big impact for Golden State
Kristaps Porzingis
Kristaps Porzingis | Brett Davis-Imagn Images

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Kristaps Porzingis is expected to make his Warriors debut soon after the All-Star break and possibly in Golden State's next game against the Boston Celtics.

Most of the conversation about Porzingis since the trade has been focused on his injury/illness history, which is understandable. After all, he's played just 17 games this season, and if he misses extended time with the Warriors, they could miss the playoffs.

But let's look past that and focus on what Porzingis will bring to the court.

There are three ways in which he'll make the Warriors much better.

Team Defensive Rebounding

Porzingis has never put up elite rebounding numbers, but his teams have consistently grabbed a high percentage of defensive rebounds when he's on the floor.

DREB% w/ KP on

DREB% w/ KP off

KP's Impact

25-26 Hawks

70.2

69.1

+1.1 percent

24-25 Celtics

74.4

70.5

+3.9 percent

23-24 Celtics

72.9

72.3

+0.6 percent

22-23 Wizards

73.7

70.9

+2.8 percent

21-22 Wizards

78.0

71.3

+6.7 percent

21-22 Mavs

75.8

72.9

+2.9 percent

Of course one factor is that Porzingis is 7'2", but this speaks to something bigger than just "tall man gets more rebounds than not as tall man."

Part of it is simply that Porzingis is such a good three-pointer shooter that his teams can get away with playing bigger teammates around him. Normally if you have a 7'2" shot-blocking presence on the floor, that player comes with no outside shot, which limits how a coach can deploy players around him.

But with Porzingis, you can play double-big lineups that will defensive-rebound well. That was the case in Washington and Dallas when Porzingis played with Daniel Gafford (in Washington) and Dwight Powell (in Dallas).

But another part of it is he's a good team defender who is usually in the right spot, which will help any team get a higher percentage of the defensive rebounds.

The Warriors are grabbing just 68.7 percent of their opponents' misses, which ranks in the bottom 10 in the league. They are grabbing just 66.9 percent of the available defensive rebounds when Draymond Green is off the court.

Putting Porzingis and Green on the court together should fix this weakness and possibly even make it a strength.

Porzingis should help Golden State's defense in general, as he's had a positive defensive net rating in nine of his 10 seasons, per Cleaning the Glass. The one major downside is he can get taken advantage of in pick-and-roll coverage, but that doesn't overshadow all the good he does on the less glamorous end.

Limiting Turnovers on Offense

Porzingis has never been a high-volume passer, and his career assist-to-turnover ratio is not much better than 1-to-1, so this might come as a surprise on the surface. But the stats tell a convincing story.

TOV% with KP on

TOV% with KP off

KP's Impact

25-26 Hawks

11.8

14.3

2.5% better

24-25 Celtics

11.5

12.4

0.9% better

23-24 Celtics

11.9

12.1

0.2% better

22-23 Wizards

13.8

14.3

0.5% better

21-22 Wizards

11.1

13.9

2.8% better

21-22 Mavs

11.8

13.6

1.8% better

The main reason for this is that bigs have to guard Porzingis at three-point line, opening driving lanes that lead to more turnover-averse offense. But especially in the Warriors' case, Porzingis' ability to be an offensive hub out of the mid-post will also lead to fewer turnovers.

The Warriors' most popular offensive play is throwing the ball to a big in the mid-post and running split-action with the hope of freeing up a shooter for a wing three.

The problem is when this action is defended correctly, the ball is often left in the hands of a big, such as Green, with no good option and the shot clock running down. This can lead to turnovers.

With Porzingis, the split-action will be a better play for the Warriors in two ways. First, just getting the entry pass to him will be much easier. The Warriors have had a number of turnovers making the pass, but with Porzingis, you can throw it high and elminate almost any chance of a turnover.

Second, when the play is defended correctly, Porzingis can face up and score.

The last time the Warriors had a great option to face up and score from the mid-post was Kevin Durant. Though Porzingis is not on KD's level, he's one of the best in the league at it. Having Porzingis attempt to score from the mid-post certainly beats the alternative of a player making a wild drive late in the shot clock that often results in a turnover.

Overall, the Warriors have a 15.5 percent turnover rate, which is sixth-worst in the NBA. Any improvement here would do wonders for this team.

Free-Throw Differential

Let's be clear right off the bat: The Warriors will struggle with free-throw differential for the rest of the season. They don't have the personnel to consistently put pressure on defenses off the dribble, and outside of Porzingis, they don't have anyone on the interior who puts pressure on the rim.

Still, Porzingis should take this huge weakness and make it not as big of a weakness.

Per Cleaning the Glass, Porzingis' teams have had a better free-throw rate on offense in seven of his 10 seasons, including a significant rate improvement in the last three seasons.

Porzingis' teams have also had a lower free-throw rate on defense with him on the court in eight of his 10 seasons, though he's actually had some fouling issues this year.

Still, it's likely that he'll do more good than harm here.

On offense, he's averaging 7.1 free-throw attempts per 36 minutes. Among healthy Golden State players, Stephen Curry (5.0) is the only other Warrior averaging more than 4.0 free-throw attempts per 36 minutes.

And on defense, Porzingis can use his height to contest shots in the paint without fouling. He's averaging 1.9 blocks per 36 minutes, which makes him Golden State's team leader, but just having him there in the paint will allow other Warriors defenders to avoid fouling because they finally have a true shot-block presence. That is arguably even more important than whatever Porzingis' shot-blocking average will be with the Warriors.

Of course, Porzingis will help the Warriors in a variety of other ways, especially offensively. He'll be Golden State's No. 2 scorer and give Stephen Curry help he desperately needs. But make sure to pay extra attention to how he's impacting the team's defensive rebounding, turnover and free-throw rates.


Published
Joey Akeley
JOEY AKELEY

Joey was a writer and editor at Bleacher Report for 13 years. He's a Bay Area sports expert and a huge NBA fan.

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