How Warriors Can Win NBA Cup Group C Despite 25-Point Loss to Nuggets

The Golden State Warriors have their final two NBA Cup group-stage games coming up in the next week. So far, they are 1-1 with a loss to the Denver Nuggets and a win over the San Antonio Spurs.

Below, I break down what the Warriors need to happen to win Group C and advance to the knockout stages.

With a 25-point loss to Denver, Golden State doesn't control its destiny.

Current Standings

All five Group C teams are 1-1. Here is a table that shows who've they've played and who they have left.

Denver	Houston	San Antonio	Portland	Golden State
L @ POR (-2)	L @ SA (-11)	W vs. HOU (+11)	W vs. DEN (+2)	L @ DEN (-25)
W vs. GSW (+25)	W vs. POR (+24)	L vs. GSW (-1)	L @ HOU (-24)	W @ SA (+1)
@ HOU (11/21)	vs. DEN (11/21)	@ POR (11/26)	@ GSW (11/21)	vs. POR (11/21)
vs. SA (11/28)	@ GSW (11/26)	@ DEN (11/28)	vs. SA (11/26)	vs. HOU (11/26)
+23	+13	+10	-22	-24

Step 1: Beat Portland and Houston

This is obvious. No 2-2 team has ever advanced to the NBA Cup quarterfinals. And if one ever did, it would have to have a great point differential, which the Warriors likely won't have due to the blowout loss to the Nuggets.

The good news for the Warriors is both of these games are at home, where they are 5-0 this season.

The Trail Blazers have lost four in a row, and the Warriors are expected to have Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler and Draymond Green for the game. However, it must be noted that Portland beat Golden State 139-119 earlier this season.

The Rockets (10-3) have the NBA's fourth-best record and third-best point differential. They look like a title contender. In theory, this will be a much more difficult game to win.

Step 2: Hope Houston Beats Denver

The Warriors need the Nuggets to lose one of their final two group-stage games to win Group C. With Victor Wembanyama expected to miss the next few weeks with a calf injury, it would be stunning if Denver lost to San Antonio. So it really comes down to the Rockets beating the Nuggets on Friday.

Houston has won 10 of its last 11 games after starting 0-2. Denver (11-3) has won 11 of 13 since its season-opening loss to the Warriors.

This one could go either way, but it doesn't hurt that the Rockets are at home.

If a) the Warriors win out and b) Houston beats Denver, the Warriors will be guaranteed to advance. They'd likely end up being the only 3-1 team in the group, but even if the Spurs surprisingly won their last two games to also be 3-1, the Warriors would hold the head-to-head tiebreaker.

Can the Warriors Make the Quarterfinals as a Wild Card?

Each conference sends three division winners to the quarterfinals. But each also sends one wild-card team, which is the second-place team that has the best record and best point differential.

If both the Nuggets and Warriors win out, the Nuggets will win the group and the Warriors will finish second.

To get the last spot, Golden State would need the best point differential of the 3-1 second-place teams.

The problem is the other groups have at least two uncompetitive teams, meaning their better teams will have excellent point differentials.

For example, in Group A, the Minnesota Timberwolves (2-0) have a plus-54 point differential, the Oklahoma City Thunder (1-0) have a plus-31 differential, and the Phoenix Suns (1-0) have a plus-22 differential. They have all beaten up on the Sacramento Kings and Utah Jazz.

As long as two of the Wolves, Thunder and Suns finish 3-1 or better, the Warriors will have almost no chance to get in.

This is why the Warriors need the Nuggets to lose. Otherwise, Golden State will likely need to blow out the Blazers and Rockets by 20-plus points, and even that might not be enough if, for example, the Wolves and Thunder play a close game against each other and beat the rest of their opponents.