Why Warriors Veteran Could Be Close to Getting Benched

The Buddy Hield experiment is not going well.

The veteran guard is averaging career lows in minutes (16.7), points (6.6) and three-point percentage (31.6).

But a closer look at the on/off numbers suggests it's much worse than a shooting slump. Hield could play even fewer minutes or be benched entirely.

Alarming On/Off Numbers

When Hield is on the floor, the Warriors allow 124.8 points per possession, which ranks in the 8th percentile.

When Hield is off the floor, the Warriors allow 107.4 points per possession, which ranks in the 92nd percentile.

That 17.4-point swing in defensive net rating is the third-worst in the NBA, per Cleaning the Glass.

Hield has always struggled defensively, but it's worse than ever this season.

For example, last year the Warriors allowed 1.7 points per possession more with Hield on the floor, and he made up for it by improving the offense by 2.5 points per possession.

This year, the offense is slightly worse with Hield on the floor, and the defense, as noted above, is a disaster.

It's Not Just Hield Struggling

Before we can fix the problem, we need to identify the problem.

Though the three stars aren't perfect, Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler and Draymond Green are the most consistent players, and they are the least of the team's problems.

Moses Moody and Brandin Podziemski are not as consistent, but they are giving the Warriors quality minutes most nights. And Quinten Post has cooled off from a hot start, but he's filling the stretch-5 bench role well enough.

The issue is the rest of the roster.

Here are the Warriors' on/off numbers from Cleaning the Glass:

Player	Efficiency Differential
Gary Payton II	-8.6
Jonathan Kuminga	-9.8
Gui Santos	-12.2
Will Richard	-12.7
Al Horford	-15.6
Trayce Jackson-Davis	-17.1
Buddy Hield	-18.4
Pat Spencer	-21.1

Woof.

We can all agree Will Richard is playing better than this stat suggests, but outside of that, there's no surprise here. The Warriors need three or four of these players to play much better going forward.

Kuminga and Horford will continue to have key rotation roles. The Warriors simply need Kuminga's scoring and athleticism and Horford's size. The roles for the rest are up for debate.

What Kerr Can Do with the Rotation

If Hield is benched, what could Steve Kerr do with his 16.7 wing minutes per game?

First, Will Richard could get a bit more run. He's averaging 19.4 minutes per game on this road trip, and going into the low 20s could help.

Next, he could give Gui Santos a consistent role for the first time this season. Santos is more of a 3 or 4 than a 2, which is probably why he hasn't taken any of Hield's minutes to this point. But Santos can shoot, and you know he'll be engaged defensively. So even if the lineup construction is a bit clunky, the Warriors might be better off.

We don't know exactly when Seth Curry will join the team, but he could take some of Hield's minutes as well.

Any leftover minutes could be absorbed by Moody and Podz.

The Argument for Riding It Out with Hield

The Warriors offense (22nd-ranked O rating) has been a bigger issue than the defense (12th-ranked D rating), and Hield has the highest potential to help the offense of the Warriors' deeper bench players.

His career three-point percentage is 39.6. He's made the second-most three-pointers in the league since the beginning of the 2020-21 season. He's consistently had a positive net-rating split, which suggests his offense makes up for his defense.

Hield gives Golden State bench units a legitimate scoring option. He's a threat coming off split-action screens, and his gravity creates driving lanes. The ideal short-term solution is having the veteran guard break out of his shooting slump while getting his defense back to last year's levels.

Kerr Shouldn't Hold Out Much Longer

Kerr said Tuesday that De'Anthony Melton is "not very close" to returning from the ACL injury he suffered last season.

When he returns, it will be much easier for Kerr to play Hield less.

Melton is a two-way force. If Hield were in a shooting slump while Melton were healthy, it would be reasonable for Melton to take all of his minutes.

But right now, the Warriors don't have an obvious solution for the Hield problem.

And the frustration is becoming evident.

On Tuesday, Butler threw a pass to Hield as he was cutting into the lane. Hield wasn't even looking, allowing the Magic to steal the pass. Butler was furious.

The margins are so thin in the Western Conference standings. The Warriors need a winning record on their five-game homestand starting Friday. If Hield isn't giving them anything, it'll be time for a change.