Warriors' History of 1st-Round Picks in Joe Lacob Era Reveals 2 Trends

Since Joe Lacob became the Golden State Warriors owner in 2010, the Dubs have made 12 first-round picks.

Their hit rate on these picks has been inconsistent to say the least.

It hasn't all been bad, mind you. The James Wiseman gaffe stands out, but on the positive end, so does taking Klay Thompson. And since 2019, they've gotten good results from Jordan Poole, Moses Moody and Brandin Podziemski.

I set out to find some trends about the prospects the Warriors have taken, with an extra emphasis on their picks in the last seven years. I revealed those findings below.

1st-Round Picks in Lacob Era Reveal 2 Trends

The following table has the age of the prospect on draft night, whether he played NCAA basketball, his BPM in his last season and his effective field-goal percentage in his last season.

Player	Pick	Age	NCAA	BPM	EFG%
K. Thompson	No. 11	21	Yes	9.8	.525
H. Barnes	No. 7	20	Yes	6.8	.487
F. Ezeli	No. 30	22	Yes	3.7	.539
K. Looney	No. 30	19	Yes	7.0	.505
D. Jones	No. 30	20	Yes	6.2	.590
J. Evans	No. 28	21	Yes	9.9	.507
J. Poole	No. 28	20	Yes	7.2	.538
J. Wiseman	No. 2	19	Yes	18.0	.769
J. Kuminga	No. 7	18	No	N/A	.430
M. Moody	No. 14	19	Yes	7.4	.503
P. Baldwin	No. 28	19	Yes	-1.8	.408
Podziemski	No. 19	20	Yes	10.6	.571

There is lots to take from this.

The first thing is that the Warriors have not targeted international prospects. Jonathan Kuminga was the only one who didn't play college basketball, but he did play for the G League Ignite, so it wasn't difficult to scout him.

Next, it's easy to see that the Warriors have taken younger prospects recently. They took four prospects in a row under 20, and that doesn't include Jordan Poole, who turned 20 a day before the 2019 draft.

Brandin Podziemski broke the streak of taking young prospects in 2023, but even he was just 20 years and four months.

As for Box Plus/Minus, the numbers are all over the place. James Wiseman played just three collegiate games, so his wild BPM should have never been given much weight.

Throwing out his results, the Warriors might have stumbled upon a formula to get a solid prospect.

Two of their most successful picks (Klay Thompson and Brandin Podziemski) had a) at least a .525 effective field-goal percentage and b) a BPM of at least 9.8 in their final season.

Prospects Who Would Go Against Recent Trends

The two major recent trends for the Warriors are taking prospects under 21 years old and taking prospects who played college basketball.

The age limit would eliminate Yaxel Lendeborg (23), Cameron Carr (21), Aday Mara (21) and Bennett Stirtz (22).

Ignoring players from international leagues would eliminate Karim Lopez.

No other prospect in the Warriors' draft range would be eliminated, but if the inefficient offense of Kuminga and Patrick Baldwin scares them, I could see the Golden State front office passing on Nate Ament (.452 eFG%).

Prospects Who Fit Most Successful Lacob Picks

Based on the factors discussed above, here are the 2026 draft prospects in the Warriors' first-round draft range who have the most similarities to the most successful picks in the Lacob era.

Player	Age	BPM	EFG%
L. Philon	20.6	11.3	.585
B. Burries	20.8	11.7	.572
H. Steinbach	20.1	10.1	.602
E. Okorie	19.2	10.6	.528
A. Graves	19.9	13.4	.580
M. Johnson	20.4	11.8	.642
D. Swain	20.9	10.5	.582

It's anyone's guess whether Labaron Philon Jr. and Brayden Burries will be available when the Warriors are on the clock. If they are both off the board, Washington center Hannes Steinbach could intrigue Golden State's front office enough for him to be the 11th pick.

Regardless of who the Warriors take at 11, this list shows they should be trying to get a second first-round pick.

Allen Graves has some athletic limitations that suggest he won't be a star, but he has "great NBA role player" written all over him. What Ebuka Okorie did as a freshman should have a team in the teens betting on him despite his height (6'1.25").

Morez Johnson is limited offensively, but he's already ready to defend and rebound at a high level. Dailyn Swain won't blow you away with his scoring arsenal, but he has a good combination of size (6'6.5") and skill.

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