Warriors Opening Night Roster and Rotation Prediction: Who's In, Who's Out, Analysis

I go over who will make the roster and how minutes will be distributed for opening night

Georges Niang | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Golden State Warriors are six days away from their regular-season opener, and there doesn't project to be much roster drama in that time.

But the rotation decisions don't appear set in stone.

Let's go over what the opening roster—all 15 standard contract spots and three two-way spots—will look like before getting into the rotation questions.

Opening Night Roster Prediction

Going into preseason, I was among many who wondered if the Warriors would shake up their two-way roster spots. But that appears very unlikely now.

LJ Cryer, Graham Ike and Malevy Leons will keep their two-way spots. Leons hasn't had a great preseason, but Kerr backed him a few days ago, ending any possible two-way roster spot drama.

As for the 15 standard contract roster spots, a change now is very unlikely as well. Brandon Williams will earn $1.4 million on his $2.6 million contract if he's on the roster on opening night, which is a lock after Kerr said "he is the backup point guard."

Here is what the opening night depth chart should look like:

PG: Stephen Curry (starter), Brandon Williams, LJ Cryer (two-way)
SG: Brandin Podziemski (starter), De'Anthony Melton, Gary Payton II, Will Richard
SF: Gui Santos (starter)
PF: Yaxel Lendeborg (starter), Georges Niang, Malevy Leons (two-way)
C: Draymond Green (starter), Al Horford, Charles Bassey, Graham Ike (two-way)
Out with Injury/Illness: Kristaps Porzingis, Jimmy Butler, Moses Moody

Opening Night Rotation Prediction

Point guard

Either Curry or Williams will likely be on the court for all 48 minutes. If Williams is struggling, the Warriors could go to Podz or Melton as the de facto point guard in the non-Curry minutes. At least for the first game, Williams should be the 1 for all non-Curry minutes.

Minutes distribution: Curry 32, Williams 16

Shooting guard

Either Podz or Melton will likely be on the court for all 48 minutes, but Podz will likely play some of his minutes at the 3. Having Podz at the 3 will give Will Richard a chance to get some run at the 2.

Minutes distribution: Melton 22, Podz 18, Richard 8

Small forward

As noted above, the Warriors have just one true small forward who is currently healthy. That's Santos, who of course won't be playing all 48 minutes. So the Dubs will give small forward minutes to Podz and Payton when Santos is on the bench.

Minutes distribution: Santos 26, Podz 12, Payton 10

Power forward

Steve Kerr has experimented with Lendeborg at center, and those experiments have not gone well on the defensive end. So at least when Green and Horford are both active, Kerr figures to have Lendeborg play exclusively power forward. Niang will be his primary replacement, while Green projects to play some of his minutes at the 4.

Minutes distribution: Lendeborg 32, Niang 10, Green 6

Center

Green figures to start and close the game at center, and Horford should play most of the center minutes when Green is either on the bench or at power forward. Bassey has had a strong training camp/preseason, and I suspect he'll have a role even when Green and Horford are active.

Minutes distribution: Green 20, Horford 20, Bassey 8