What are the Odds the Wizards Trade the First Pick

The first overall pick is an asset any team would want, and the Washington Wizards are listening to offers for it.

Mar 18, 2026; Portland, OR, USA; BYU Cougars forward AJ Dybantsa (3) passes the ball during a practice session ahead of the first round of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Moda Center. Mandatory Credit: Craig Strobeck-Imagn Images | Craig Strobeck-Imagn Images

Usually, when a team lands the first overall pick in the draft, they keep it and draft who they think will change the future of their franchise. The 2026 draft has not one, but four players with that kind of potential. So trading up into the top four would be quite difficult. The Washington Wizards, though, have reportedly made that a possibility, as they are listening to offers for the first overall pick.

Wizards Hearing Offers

In this situation, the Wizards have all the power in the world when it comes to a trade, and there are some criteria teams must meet first. The first overall pick would cost a hefty price to trade for. Baselines for it would always start with whatever the team is trying to trade with Washington owns. This means a few teams can already be ruled out, like the Golden State Warriors and Charlotte Hornets, both at the end of the lottery.

May 10, 2026; Chicago, IL, USA; Mark Tatum the NBA Deputy Commissioner and Washington Wizard (left) guard John Wall pose for photos after Wizards won the 2026 NBA Draft Lottery at Navy Pier. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-Imagn Images | David Banks-Imagn Images

Another one would be to have an abundance of draft capital to trade. Looking at some of the league's teams, only four meet this criterion. The Brooklyn Nets, Utah Jazz, Oklahoma City Thunder, and San Antonio Spurs. They have not only all their own picks but also other teams' picks that can be included in a trade.

The final criterion is having a young player or two with high upside. This means this player needs either a multi-time All-Star ceiling or the potential to make a few All-NBA or All-Defensive teams. As much young talent as the Nets have, none of their players has shown that kind of promise. This leaves three teams: the Jazz, Thunder, and Spurs.

What Each Team Could Offer

The Jazz would be the most likely team to trade with. They can offer the second overall pick and a young player like Keyonte George or Ace Bailey. A year ago, Bailey was forcing his way to the Wizards, but the Jazz ended up taking him at fifth overall, the pick right before the Wizards. The reason the Jazz would want to do this is to get AJ Dybantsa, who Jazz owner Ryan Smith wants thanks to his connections to Brigham Young University. The Wizards would see how bad Utah wants Dybantsa, and see if they could get Bailey, the second overall pick, and a few future firsts as well.

Mar 27, 2026; Denver, Colorado, USA; Utah Jazz guard Ace Bailey (19) during the first half against the Denver Nuggets at Ball Arena. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-Imagn Images | Christopher Hanewinckel-Imagn Images

The Thunder could offer both of their picks this year, the 12th and 17th. In those ranges, the Wizards could take Yaxel Lendeborg, Cameron Carr, or Allen Graves. They could also try to see if the Thunder could send young players Cason Wallace and Thomas Sorber in a deal. Wallace has All-Defensive-level talent, and Sorber, a player at Georgetown University, looked like one of the best centers from the 2025 draft class. Of course, two future firsts would also need to be included in the deal.

The Spurs are a team that can trade for the first, but now that the Wizards have that pick, it's unlikely. They have young players, but they clearly want to keep them. They have an abundance of picks, but just getting picks is not enough, especially when they do not have a lottery pick this year. This alone is going to knock them out of the race, even though they do have the assets to get a deal done.

Odds of a Trade

The odds of a trade happening are probably around five percent. Sure, there is a chance, but the deal has to be a Godfather-like one, a deal you can't refuse. The Jazz and Danny Ainge are not going to give up multiple firsts or Bailey, and the Thunder, with Sam Presti, love their draft picks. With everything we currently know from recent reports and teams' assets, it's safe to say the Wizards will still be drafting first.

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