Knowing that football is as fluid a game as there is when it comes to information, here is a compendium of 25 thoughts as we enter the heart of draft season.
1. Despite what you might read elsewhere, there is no slam-dunk No. 1 pick but there are three who are distinct from the pack. They are Baltimore's Ray Rice, Philly's LeSean McCoy and Houston's Arian Foster. It's difficult to find any real fault with the first two, while Foster, despite a history of hamstring injuries and an overqualified backup in Ben Tate, is far too talented to let go past the first few picks of any draft. And nobody will bat an eye if you decide to take a quarterback because...
2. ... for the first time in fantasy football there are as many first-round-worthy quarterbacks as running backs. Due to the proliferation of passing, there are at least five quarterbacks -- Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Matthew Stafford and Cam Newton -- all worthy of the first round. Outside of the aforementioned elite running back trio, there is a group either coming off major injuries (Jamaal Charles, Matt Forte, Adrian Peterson, Darren McFadden, DeMarco Murray, Fred Jackson, Ryan Mathews), getting long in the tooth (Steven Jackson, Michael Turner, Frank Gore, Willis McGahee) or dealing with other extenuating circumstance (Maurice Jones-Drew, Marshawn Lynch) that should make you hesitate before staking your entire season's fortunes on them. If you take a gamble on one of the question-mark backs be sure to load up on those in stable situations.
3. Adjust your running back expectations. In the past owners could expect both starting backs to rush for 1,200 yards and score 12 TDs. The number of those who are even given the opportunity to do so now has diminished to the point that the likelihood of you getting two or three is greatly reduced. Instead of trying to draft a perfect team, you need to find players who produce points, no matter how, to fill out your regular lineup. Get creative. It's OK to have a touchdown vulture (say, Michael Bush) or third-down back (Jacquizz Rodgers) as a weekly starter as long as you have fattened up on the passing game.
4. Having said that, the timeshare I'm buying into is the league's latest thunder (Peyton Hillis) and lightning (Jamaal Charles) backfield in Kansas City. Charles, a top pick last year before tearing his ACL, is a monster in career yards-per-attempt, while in leagues that skew heavier toward touchdowns, the bruising Hillis will rehabilitate his bruised reputation by having significant value.
5. A tip not only for the draft but also for team management during the season: Don't always listen to the word on the street. You're bombarded with information from writers and coaches that after a while becomes soup. Before long the fantasy football players take the resulting noise as fact. Trust your own eyes and mind. If you think someone is being overhyped, then chances are they are. Go with your instincts. The worst feeling is realizing that you should've trusted your gut yet didn't.
6. But also make sure you have the best and most current information. Have a Twitter account? If not, get one now because you're putting yourself at a disadvantage. Nearly every NFL player of note has an account and it's incredible the amount of things they share. In addition to following the players, local beat writers are an incredible source of breaking news both throughout the week and before game time when you're setting your lineups. It's an invaluable resource.
7. Not since the days of Barry Sanders and Herman Moore have the Detroit Lions featured two first-round fantasy talents like they have in Calvin Johnson and Matthew Stafford. As good as the passing game is with those two, plus Brandon Pettigrew, Titus Young, Tony Scheffler and rookie Ryan Broyles, the running game is the opposite and worthy of the nickname "Moantown." The top two talents, Jahvid Best (precaution following a concussion) and Mikel Leshoure (hamstring, two-game suspension) can't play, leaving Kevin Smith, who was a street free agent at this time last year, or Joique Bell, a Colts, Eagles and Saints refugee, as the team's potential opening day starter.
8. The longer MJD holds out the harder it is for him to be drafted in the first round with a clear conscience. However, if he somehow avoids injury -- and given history, that's a big if -- he'll be worth that first round pick because he'll step right back into his role as Jacksonville's No. 1 (once he signs). I'd temper expectations for the other two draftable Jags, Justin Blackmon and Laurent Robinson. Don't look for more than WR depth from them while playing with Blaine Gabbert, a vestige of the past administration.
9. The other most prominent holdout, Mike Wallace of the Steelers, may have a little tougher time getting back into the swing of a new offense. With Antonio Brown, Emmanuel Sanders and Jerricho Cotchery more than ably occupying Mike Tomlin's top three wideout spots, Pittsburgh's front office can afford to play hardball longer with Wallace, who could have trouble picking up the new system brought in by new offensive coordinator Todd Haley.
10. Speaking of Pittsburgh, Isaac Redman should have a solid season. (Assuming, that is, an MRI for a groin injury does not reveal bad news.) I don't think anyone can say for sure when Rashard Mendenhall will be back at full strength (if at all) this season, and Jonathan Dwyer has shown so far that he's better suited as a backup. One player to watch is quicksilver rookie Chris Rainey, who is replacing Mewelde Moore (now a Colt) and could be a PPR monster if Haley and Ben Roethlisberger can get him the ball in space.
11. Having Rob Gronkowski or Jimmy Graham on your team could mean the difference between winning and losing. The yardage and scoring both offer are like adding the production of another RB1 to your squad. If either of them is sitting there in the second round you'd be foolish not to swoop in and grab them. That said, if they're gone by the time you can get your paws on them, don't fret. There's an ample supply of tight ends to go around, even in leagues that allow two TEs. Vernon Davis is the best of the rest but you can't go wrong with rising stars like Fred Davis, Aaron Hernandez and Jermaine Gresham. Or, if you feel really lucky, use a discretionary pick on one of the Colts rookies, Dwyane Allen or Coby Fleener.
12. What keeps fantasy football fresh is that it's difficult to make the jump from good team to great but it's fairly easy -- due to scheduling, the draft and free agency -- to transform an inept squad team into a decent quickly. This is especially true when a coaching change is involved. So don't write off teams that were awful last year such as the Rams, Colts, Bucs, Browns and Dolphins because all have new systems and many new players.
13. Get in on the fun in Denver.Peyton Manning looked a little rusty but enough like his 40-touchdown self early in the preseason to have fantasy drafters feeling he's back to form. Not only does a healthy Manning mean huge numbers for Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker, but also quality contributions from the likes of Andre Caldwell, Jacob Tamme, Joel Dreessen, Willis McGahee and Ronnie Hillman. Or you can make a bold statement and draft No. 18 himself.
14. Clearly the better Manning to take this season and beyond is Eli. It's amazing how someone who comes from such a prominent football family, was a top overall draft pick and plays in the world's biggest media market can sneak up on everyone in the discussion for the era's best quarterback, but "Little Brother" is making a charge. Helping him out considerably is perhaps the league's best young receiving duo in Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks. Sprinkle in some Rueben Randle and Marcellus Bennett with Ahmad Bradshaw and David Wilson in the backfield, and Manning's Giants could become an offensive juggernaut similar to Peyton's in Indy. As it is, Eli narrowly missed becoming a 5,000-yard passer last season.
15. He may not or may not be able to unseat Mark Sanchez at quarterback, but Tim Tebow is the Jets' best runner. In what seems to be a marriage made in (you know where all of you devout Tebowmaniacs) the NFL's most polarizing player has joined forces with the NFL's resident Wildcat expert, offensive coordinator Tony Sparano. The two of them will do wonders around the goal line together, but barring a shocking decline by Sanchez, Tebow will bring little to the fantasy table unless he gains running back eligibility. Unfortunately, the same can't be said for plodding starting halfback, Shonn Greene, who is at a crossroads. If he can't make it in Sparano's attack -- and early returns indicate that he's struggling -- then he's of little use in fantasy or to the Jets.
16. From 2006 through 2009 Georgia Tech averaged the fourth-fewest passing yards per game of all FBS teams, yet they will have two of fantasy football's top producing receivers. Megatron is a given, but since Peyton Manning's receivers have always been Pro Bowl regulars, Demaryius Thomas, one of Calvin Johnson's offseason training buddies, will join him in Honolulu. It'll take some time for another member of the Rambling Wreck family, Stephen Hill, to get there.
17. Sticking with the Mile High theme, it's a tossup when it comes to best reunion, and both involve former Broncos. The first takes place in Chicago, where Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall are playing together for the first time since 2008, when Marshall had 1,265 receiving yards and six of Cutler's 25 touchdowns. The other is in Foxborough, where Josh McDaniels is back in the fold as the Patriots offensive coordinator and Tom Brady's personal tutor, reprising his role from 2007, when they collaborated for the greatest touchdown-producing season in NFL history. McDaniel brought with him Brandon Lloyd, a journeyman who became an offensive force under McDaniels' tutelage with the 2010 Broncos. His presence gives Brady the outside threat he's lacked since Randy Moss' implosion.
18. Returning to sea level, Miami is the subject of this year's Hard Knocks, offering an inside view of Joe Philbin's first camp as an NFL head coach. The Dolphins promise to be a little more dynamic on offense with Aaron Rodgers' ex-coach at the helm, which could mean better fortunes for Davone Bess and (if he can get back on the field) Brian Hartline, who Philbin raved about during OTAs. For the first time, I'm pretty high on Reggie Bush, who should be among the league's busiest backs. Also, keep an eye on former Hurricane Lamar Miller, who like many products of the U, is a threat to score every time he touches the ball.
19. I completely whiffed on the Bucs last year but I'm sticking with them again, with Doug Martin on board for Greg Schiano and offensive coordinator Mike Sullivan, late of two Super Bowl wins with the Giants. Most people see Josh Freeman as someone who'll bring down Vincent Jackson, but it's really the opposite. Jackson is exactly the kind of leader Freeman needs to help him become a quality quarterback, and Sullivan is exactly the coach to help bring the best out of this offense. I draft VJax and Martin in the early rounds, and take a chance on LeGarrette Blount and Mike Williams later on with Freeman a solid backup/bye week replacement for one of the top guys.
20. Don't be tempted to take one of the trio of old receivers -- Randy Moss, Terrell Owens or Plaxico Burress. At this point in their careers you're better off using the pick on the next Victor Cruz or the next Jimmy Graham than on a graybeard with a checkered past who will likely find himself on the sidelines as much as he's on the field. Chad Johnson was originally part of this item but it's unlikely he'll ever have an NFL helmet on again.
21. Cam Newton and Andy Dalton showed that rookie quarterbacks can produce in the NFL, especially when their teams have nowhere else to turn. That's why it's a good play to take Robert Griffin III or Andrew Luck as your QB2 -- not that you bank your whole season on a rookie -- but they'll have a better chance to generate quality trade value than someone like Carson Palmer, Ryan Fitzpatrick or even Matt Schaub.
22. Fantasy kickers are usually hit-and miss. All you can ask for is someone who plays: a) with an offense that will score ample points; b) with a defense that keeps games close in a competitive division; and c) in a favorable kicking environment. David Akers set the gold standard last year, and his counterpart across the Bay, Sebastian Janikowski also fits the mold.
23. Green is a good color for defense. The Packers, Jets and Eagles should all be start-worthy on a weekly basis. Red, white, and blue aren't bad either as the Patriots, Giants, Texans and Bills all should be among the league's highest scoring fantasy D's.
24. Players who worry me (and those comparable who I'd rather now have)
Greg Jennings, Packers (Jordy Nelson, Packers)Trent Richardson, Browns (Fred Jackson, Bills)Michael Vick, Eagles (Matt Ryan, Falcons)Frank Gore, 49ers">49ers (Willis McGahee, Broncos)Ryan Mathews, Chargers (Chris Johnson, Titans)
25. Remember that drafting is just part of the fun. Be active and manipulate your team throughout the year to get it where you want and need it to be. There's virtually zero chance that everything you think will happen, actually will. Anything can happen on every given Sunday and that's what has made fantasy football the wild success that it has become.
David Sabino will be answering your fantasy football questions all season. Follow him on Twitter @SI_DavidSabino and send in your requests.