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By Scott Gramling
October 17, 2018

Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs (-6)

Sun. 10/21, 8:20 p.m. ET

Three things you need to know before betting on Cincinnati-Kansas City:

1. The Sunday night game features a pair of teams coming off last-minute defeats in Week 6. After taking a one-point lead over rival Pittsburgh with 78 seconds remaining on Sunday, the Bengals failed to hang on as Antonio Brown scored on a 31-yard catch-and-run with 10 seconds left on the clock. The Chiefs, meanwhile, suffered their first defeat of the season, losing 43-40 in New England on a last-second field goal. Although Kansas City fell for the first time in its last 10 games in the regular season, the Chiefs ran their ATS unbeaten streak to 10. Kansas City enters this one having gone 8-1 against the spread since the start of last season when coming off a game in which it scored 30 or more points, and 13-1 against the spread since the start of 2016 when coming off a game in which the team allowed 400 or more total yards.

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2. The total Vegas has posted for this game is the highest of any on the board in Week 7, and Kansas City would appear to be far better suited to winning a high-scoring affair. While the Chiefs have the best offense in the AFC with 418.5 total yards per game, the Bengals rank 12th in the conference with an average of 352.2 yards per game. While Kansas City has scored 38 or more points in four of its six games this season, Cincinnati has yet to reach 38 in any one of its six games. On the other side of the ball, the Chiefs have limited opponents to an average of 20.5 points per game at home while the Bengals are surrendering an average of 30 points per game on the road. Kansas City is 4-1 both straight up and against the spread in regular season games since the start of 2017 when favored by six points or more, with the last three of those games resulting in double-digit victories.

3. Andy Reid has been one of the NFL’s winningest coaches in recent years, compiling a .674 win percentage over his six-plus regular seasons with the Chiefs. Cincinnati’s Marvin Lewis sits at .530 with the Bengals, which does not include his underwhelming 0-7 postseason mark. Reid's offense appears as if it’s continuing to pick up steam with the maturation of second-year quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who had a productive second half in nearly leading Kansas City to a 15-point comeback in New England. The Chiefs gained an average of 7.2 yards per play in the loss—in the 20 previous times that Kansas City has been coming off a game under Reid in which it gained an average of at least 6.5 yards per play, the Chiefs have gone 15-5 both straight up and against the spread.

Pick: Kansas City -6

Confidence Level: High (on a scale of Low/Moderate/High/Very High/Extremely High)

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