Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints (-8)
Sun. 11/18, 4:25 p.m. EST
Three things you need to know before betting on Eagles-Saints:
1. The NFL’s hottest team looks to extend its win streak at the Superdome on Sunday when the Saints host the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles. Not only has New Orleans won eight consecutive games straight up, but the team has also prevailed in seven straight against the spread. Five of the last six wins have been by double digits, with each of the past four double-digit victories coming against teams that currently have records above .500. The Saints pummeled the 6-3 Redskins by 24 points before beating the 5-3-1 Vikings and 9-1 Rams each by 10 points prior to this past Sunday’s 51-14 beatdown on the road against a Bengals team that now sits at 5-4. Philadelphia's four wins this season have all come against teams that currently sit below .500 this season (Atlanta, Indianapolis, New York Giants and Jacksonville).
2. One of the primary reasons for Philadelphia’s disappointing season thus far has been a defense that ranks 23rd in the NFL against the pass. Injuries are partly to blame, although the team benefited from the services of Ronald Darby prior to him suffering a torn ACL late in the game against Dallas this past Sunday night. Now the Eagles are faced with the prospect of having to stop New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees, the frontrunner to win the first NFL MVP award of his career. Brees has thrown 21 touchdown passes and just one interception all season, and his 77.3 percent completion rate is on pace to shatter his own NFL record of 72.0% that he set last season. Since the start of the 2016 season, New Orleans is 18-6 against the spread when facing a pass defense that allows a completion rate of at least 61%. Brees is even more effective in the ideal-throwing conditions in the Superdome: He has won 10 of his last 11 home games, with the one loss being no fault of his, a 48-40 defeat to Tampa Bay in the 2018 season opener. Brees threw for 439 yards and three touchdowns that day and has continued to post remarkable numbers in the Big Easy this season with 1,391 passing yards (348 per game) on an 80% completion rate with 12 touchdowns and zero interceptions over four home games.
3. The following betting system gives reason to believe that a Philadelphia bounce back from the Sunday night home loss to Dallas is unlikely: NFL teams coming off an upset loss to a division rival are 16-40 against the spread (29%) in November games since the start of the 2009 season, which includes a 2-8 ATS mark since the start of 2016. Although the Saints’ defense ranks among the bottom third of the league in total yards allowed, Philly has struggled to cover the spread in games against subpar defenses, going 0-9 against the spread since the start of 2016 when facing a team that’s allowing an average of at least six yards per play. The Saints’ ability to stay hot once they’ve gotten hot is also nothing new, as New Orleans is now 20-8 against the spread after the first month of the season since the start of 2016.
Pick: New Orleans -8
Confidence Level: High (on a scale of Low/Moderate/High/Very High/Extremely High)