Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (-3.5)
Sun. 11/25, 8:20 p.m. ET
Three things you need to know before betting on Packers-Vikings:
1. While Minnesota enters Sunday night’s game with two losses in its past three games, NFC North rival Green Bay has dropped three of its past four. The Packers’ 27-24 loss in Seattle last Thursday dropped Green Bay to 0-5 on the road (1-3-1 against the spread), and the team has yet to string together back-to-back victories in 2018. Green Bay’s defense is allowing 29.8 points and 375.4 total yards per game outside of Lambeau Field this year, in part because the Packers have a total of only two forced turnovers over those five road games. Although the Vikings’ run game struggled with only 22 yards on 14 carries in a 25-20 loss in Chicago this past Sunday, Minnesota should have far more success on the ground against Green Bay. The Packers have allowed 120 or more rushing yards in five straight games, surrendering 147.2 yards per game on 4.8 yards per carry during the stretch.
2. Although Minnesota's performance this season failed to meet the high expectations the team had going into the season, the Vikings’ 17-6-1 straight-up record over their past 24 games includes a 9-2 mark over their past 11 home games. And while Minnesota has gone 17-7-1 against the spread over the team’s past 25 home games, Green Bay is 4-8-1 (both straight up and against the spread) over its past 13 games regardless of location. In head-to-head meetings, Minnesota is 4-1-1 straight up over the past six games between these teams, and Green Bay is 2-5 against the spread over its past seven visits to Minneapolis. The Vikings are also 5-0-1 against the spread when favored by between 4 and 10 points in a regular season game over the past two calendar years.
3. Minnesota has shown an ability to bounce back after losses in recent seasons, going 19-8 against the spread when coming off a straight-up loss since Mike Zimmer took over as the team’s head coach prior to the 2014 season. The Vikings are 13-4 against the spread over that same time frame when coming off a road loss, and they’re 16-7 against the spread under Zimmer following a division game. When facing an opponent that’s averaging at least 350 total yards per game, Minnesota is 18-8 against the spread in the Zimmer era; the team is also 13-4 against the spread under Zimmer when facing an offense that throws for an average of at least 260 yards per game.
Pick: Minnesota Vikings -3.5
Confidence Level: Moderate (on a scale of Low/Moderate/High/Very High/Extremely High)