2023 NFL Season: SI’s One Prediction for All 32 Teams
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The Super Bowl is over, and the Chiefs are your new world champions. That means it’s time to stop ignoring the rest of the league, as we did so inconsiderately this week at the NFL’s season-ending circus.
Here, for you, is a batch of 32 fresh (for the most part) predictions for the upcoming season … one for every team. I think the Texans are going to be dangerous; I think the back end of this year’s draft will be fascinating, and telling. I think there will mostly be an (unsatisfying) status quo when it comes to the major players in the QB market. And I think I am glad I don’t have to count on any of these actually coming true in order to provide for my family financially.
Let’s jump in, shall we?
Matt Krohn/USA TODAY Sports (Jefferson); Katie Stratman/USA TODAY Sports (Burrow); Mitch Stringer/USA TODAY Sports (Jackson); Stephen R. Sylvanie/USA TODAY Sports (Taylor)
Arizona Cardinals
Prediction: They will have another top-five draft pick next year.
This team was always a bit of a paper tiger, even at the height of the Kliff Kingsbury era. After moving on from their last leadership circle (both coach and GM), the Cardinals have pivoted, perhaps acknowledging their lack of depth and skill-position talent across the board. The team will almost certainly have to play some games with a backup quarterback to start the season with Kyler Murry recovering from a torn ACL. The process will be a lengthy one.
Atlanta Falcons
Prediction: Tyler Allgeier will lead the NFC in rushing yards.
The second-year back out of BYU will explode in his sophomore campaign, no longer required to share so many carries after mastering the intricacies of third-down pass protection and route running. Arthur Smith continues to refine an offense that will, regardless of QB, open up massive running lanes for the powerful back.
Baltimore Ravens
Prediction: They won’t reach a long-term contract agreement with Lamar Jackson.
For the umpteenth time, I applaud Jackson; I think he deserves the money he is holding out for, and I also think the Ravens have a number in mind. However, I don’t think a fully guaranteed contract fits into that picture. Seeing Jackson in a new offense, following the departure of OC Greg Roman, will be instructive. If he continues to blossom, meeting his demands feels like less of a stretch for a franchise that is, for now, at a bit of a crossroads. Here’s the complicating factor: I think Jackson is smart (and young) enough to hold out if he is not granted that security. Le’Veon Bell 2.0? In this case, a year off makes him an even better prospect for teams concerned about his lower-body injuries.
Buffalo Bills
Prediction: Khalil Shakir will emerge as a legitimate No. 2 receiver with long-term No. 1 upside.
The fifth-round pick out of Boise State was most heavily utilized down the stretch this year and showed an ability to be where Josh Allen needed him to be. With a full offseason under his belt, Shakir will supplant Gabriel Davis, who will be a free agent in 2024.
Carolina Panthers
Prediction: They will send three defensive players to the Pro Bowl.
Such will be the magic worked by new defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero, perhaps the biggest steal of the offseason thus far. In choosing Sean Payton over their in-house candidate, the Broncos effectively chose to guarantee themselves a good offense over keeping a dominant defense, which locked in a massive advantage for Panthers coach Frank Reich. Brian Burns, Derrick Brown and Jaycee Horn are all going to be playing some meaningful flag football in Las Vegas next winter.
Chicago Bears
Prediction: They will draft a quarterback … but not in the first round.
This Bears draft will be about building stylistic compliments for Justin Fields, if the franchise is indeed committed to building around him. Like the Ravens had done for years with Lamar Jackson, the Bears need a quarterback who can step in and operate a system that is designed to accentuate the same kind of personnel they are acquiring for Fields.
Cincinnati Bengals
Prediction: They will be pleasantly surprised by the ease of the Joe Burrow contract negotiations.
Katie Blackburn, the team’s executive vice president and the daughter of owner Mike Brown, once made an entire Hard Knocks segment due to her ability to stand ground during an intense negotiation. While I have no inside knowledge of this, I have a weird feeling that Burrow will not top the market, and we will be sold publicly in some way that he took less in order to build a team around him. Either way, this milestone in his football career—the first contract extension—will barely register and will be announced by the club some time on a sleepy June afternoon.
Cleveland Browns
Prediction: They will win 10 games.
It feels like their schedule is too generous for them not to come close. The Browns have dates set with future bottom-dwellers such as the Cardinals, Broncos, Texans and Colts. Though their division will get better, this is why they went out to get Deshaun Watson in the first place, no?
Dallas Cowboys
Prediction: They will participate in next year’s Super Bowl.
This will elicit massive eye rolls from podcast cohost and work better half Gary Gramling, whom I chided aggressively for his Cowboys love in 2023. Consider this a sort of purposeful tanking of a stock before purchasing at a low rate. My reasoning, however, is totally cosmic: It feels so unlikely. In fact, I have advised friends who enjoy a nice wager here or there to take a look at Dallas’s under if they were so inclined to bet on such a thing. I was gravely disappointed by the hiring of Brian Schottenheimer and of Mike McCarthy’s decision to call plays. I was befuddled by Jerry Jones’s utterances on football economics this offseason. It is precisely because of my instincts to dislike all of this that I know it will backfire on me. I am here to get ahead of it now.
Denver Broncos
Prediction: They will spend one of their five non-first-round picks on a quarterback in this year’s draft.
Sean Payton never went too many years in New Orleans without taking a look at a project pick. He is always curious at the position and should be, given the uncertainty surrounding Russell Wilson. While this prediction feels like a bit of a cop-out since drafting a QB is simply good business, I’ll double down with said prediction: That drafted player will start at least one game in 2023.
Detroit Lions
Prediction: They will win the NFC North.
On one hand, every area of my predictive brain is warning me that this is a trap. End-of-season momentum, an obvious favorite of the football media elite, a cozy coordinator-coach situation that would seem to obviously equal a successful season. The poor Lions went from delightfully plucky to absurdly overrated in a matter of weeks. Alas, I’m riding with the tide. Ben Johnson will be the hottest name in coaching next year, but during his final season with the Lions, he will put up Big 12–style numbers with Jared Goff and Jameson Williams.
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Green Bay Packers
Prediction: They will finish the 2023 season first in total defense.
I think the talent is certainly there, and some offensive tweaks this offseason will ensure that a mauling run game, the ultimate compliment to a wary defense, is functioning at a high level. Last year, we felt the same way given Green Bay’s wealth of talent. This year, the rubber finally meets the road after the Packers were humbled in a significant way.
Houston Texans
After coordinating the No. 1 defense in the NFL with the 49ers, Ryans moves to the Texans, who have the No. 1 pick in the draft.
Kyle Terada/USA TODAY Sports
Prediction: They will finish the 2023 season with a winning record.
DeMeco Ryans was that kind of coaching hire. Maybe it’s a 9–8 kind of winning season. Maybe it’s a sneak-into-the-seven-seed kind of season, but the Texans are finally going to put a sensible, long-term plan around their attempted horde of young talent. Ryans’s connections with the 49ers coaching staff will help him mine an offense that can propel their Day 1 starter (Bryce Young, perhaps?), and good fortunes will immediately ensue.
Indianapolis Colts
Prediction: They will trade Jonathan Taylor at some point during the 2023 season.
This isn’t necessarily a bold take. They’ll have a new offensive philosophy and will need to start long-term planning around a running game that potentially suits a different back. Taylor is hitting free agency next year and, like Christian McCaffrey with the Panthers in 2022, can only do so much for the franchise before it’s senseless to hold onto him without recouping value.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Prediction: Calvin Ridley will have a career-best season in all major categories with the Jaguars.
Trent Baalke continues his act as a GM Lazarus of sorts, first making us look foolish with the Christian Kirk deal and next by swooping in early ahead of the market on Ridley. Before his suspension for gambling, Ridley was a legitimate, 140-plus target, 1,200-plus-yard receiver for a declining Falcons team. His high upside is an understatement.
Kansas City Chiefs
Prediction: They will sign either Josh Jacobs or Saquon Barkley.
Both of them are going to cost about as much next year ($10 million) as the Chiefs currently have cap space. I don’t care. The Chiefs have seen what even a very middling, somewhat punishing run game can do to this offense. Jacobs, who excels with eight-plus defenders in the box and is used to pace-setting for his offense, has been watched plenty of times by his division rivals.
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Las Vegas Raiders
Prediction: They will inevitably disappoint with their quarterback choice from a “juice” standpoint.
Derek Carr is out. Patriot Way West has a wide range of options, and while they have shown a willingness to operate as a kind of polar opposite of their Belichickian roots in the past, this will be a scenario in which they send us through a familiar series of emotions: First, confusion, then acceptance as a fleet of insiders and anonymous team executives tell us that we don’t understand that this player is actually good. Finally, after a speculative month wondering whether Davante Adams will be traded or whether he wants to be, the Raiders will go 10–7.
Los Angeles Chargers
Prediction: They will win the AFC West and take the No. 1 seed in the AFC.
I think there is something noble and powerful about what the Chargers did, standing behind Brandon Staley after the team’s second-half collapse against the Jaguars in the playoffs. It would have been easy to rely on the optics, but there is a reason Los Angeles fell in love with Staley in the first place. Now, with Kellen Moore as his offensive coordinator, we’ll find out why.
Los Angeles Rams
Prediction: They will try to buttress themselves against a mass exodus at season’s end.
Aaron Donald, Matthew Stafford, Sean McVay … this was a wonderful experiment that yielded a Super Bowl trophy but is now coming to a close. While Stafford’s deal keeps him in Los Angeles for the foreseeable future, we don’t know what another year of physicality and grind will bring. Donald, too, has more incentive to walk away after this season, perhaps one in which he can cement himself as the greatest defensive tackle of all time. McVay, who has talked so frequently about burnout, will go explore life a bit before recharging his batteries.
Miami Dolphins
Prediction: They will make one of the biggest QB signings of the offseason.
That offense, in its current, very narrow window, will be incredibly sought-after. I would imagine Miami will represent a safe haven for a big-name quarterback who gets left out of the carousel or is unfazed by any of his options. Who would not want to play in this system and improve their prospects of another megadeal before their playing days are over?
Minnesota Vikings
Prediction: They are going to have their hands full with the idea of a new contract for Justin Jefferson.
As I predicted in SI’s 2023 look across all sports, Jefferson is entering the final year of his deal—unless Minnesota picks up his fifth-year option, which we expect it will do. With receiver pay at an all-time high, Jefferson cannot and should not entertain the idea of playing as a lame duck, or even as a fifth-year option player in 2024. With pressure on the Vikings to recover from a deflated ’22 season, they’ll want to have their most important offensive player on board and engaged, despite what it may do to their rebuilding efforts on defense.
New England Patriots
O'Brien returns to the Patriots as offensive coordinator after serving in the same role with Alabama.
IMAGO/Jonathan Mailhes
Prediction: They will win the AFC East.
Now we’re talking. The return of Bill O’Brien stabilizes an offense that, at times, circled around complete disarray. Mac Jones is poised, confident and efficient and, somewhere along the line, the Patriots will score an elite weapon this offseason, be it a pass-catching satellite back, a dual-threat tight end or a game-breaking wide receiver that puts the rest of the conference on notice. A brilliant defensive season from Belichick will seal the deal.
New Orleans Saints
Prediction: They will trade up to draft a quarterback.
I think Dennis Allen, now on his second go-round as a head coach, will realize that the Saints are not going to be able to tread water for much longer. There is only so much they can do sifting through the ShopRite Bowl and Basket shelf for not-quite-name-brand passers. Now that they have a late-first-round pick from the Sean Payton trade, they can use that as a building block for a bigger package that is backloaded with picks. New Orleans has no other choice if it wants to nurse this roster back to health. The team in place, full of veterans, able pass catchers and a developing offensive line in spots, can help break in a rookie faster.
New York Giants
Prediction: The Giants will re-sign Daniel Jones, and not just franchise tag him.
I think there is a great deal of love for Jones in the Giants’ building. The kind of love that pushes an owner to go out of his way to provide some short-term security. The Jones negotiations will be complex, but he’s smart enough to maximize his value in the present moment.
New York Jets
Prediction: They will not trade for Aaron Rodgers.
I know it feels like the stars are lining up, but I cannot see Rodgers opting to finish his career outside of Green Bay. Unless his slow amble off the turf in Green Bay against the Lions in Week 18 was a sign to come (I, for one, thought it was a sort of ceremonial goodbye to long-time friend Randall Cobb), I feel like we are destined for another Rodgers-ian slog through the hot-take swamplands this offseason, ending in a half-hearted embrace of quarterback and franchise.
Philadelphia Eagles
Prediction: They will finish no better than second in the NFC East next year.
I think one of the aspects of their recent run of success we overlook is just how dominant Lane Johnson and Jason Kelce have been. On a down-by-down basis, they can alter the course of a game by simply doing their jobs. Both should be considered for the Hall of Fame. If Kelce retires, it would throw a few domino pieces for a loop, despite the retention of legendary offensive line coach Jeff Stoutland. The Eagles will also have to pay Jalen Hurts (in theory), which hampers their ability to be as freewheeling with the cap.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Prediction: Kenny Pickett will make the Pro Bowl.
And while the wide breadth of what is considered a “Pro Bowl” player serves to help me achieve predictive success here, let’s make it more specific: 22 touchdowns, eight interceptions, 500 rushing yards, 3,300 yards passing and a completion percentage of 66%.
San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers gave up multiple first-round picks to draft Lance, who hasn't seen much playing time in two years due to injuries.
Kyle Terada/USA TODAY Sports
Prediction: Trey Lance will start the season opener.
Lance told reporters he feels like he’ll be ready for the team’s offseason program. And while Brock Purdy recovers from a serious elbow injury, Lance will be the best possible option, as long as Jimmy Garoppolo doesn’t completely alter the deck again. Kyle Shanahan told reporters Garoppolo would not be a factor, though we’ve obviously heard that before.
Seattle Seahawks
Prediction: They will fall back to earth in 2023.
This prediction brings me no joy, and I am sure I will end up on one of the fan base’s artfully produced videos that dunk on their legion of haters. I will deserve it and I will be proud to serve as kindling for their brilliance. All that said, Seattle’s 2023 opponent slate is pretty merciless. The Rams will be better, and they get an NFC East that pushed three teams into the playoffs in 2022. The Bengals, Ravens, Steelers and Lions are also on the slate and make for a difficult, uphill climb.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Prediction: They will “go for it” again in 2023.
There is a good quarterback market, and while the idea of replacing Tom Brady will be daunting for some, replacing him in Tampa will be a far less intimidating prospect than replacing Brady in New England. Sure, there will be an inclination to prepare as doggedly as Brady did, but the Buccaneers may find a new offensive balance and an ability to maximize the remaining years of a talented core.
Tennessee Titans
Prediction: They will win 12 games in 2023.
How? I don’t know. With whom at quarterback? Don’t ask. Will it be pretty? Of course not. Will Derrick Henry somehow still be good? You bet. Some things, like Mike Vrabel’s ability to overcoach a roster, are a constant in this universe. One just has to accept it.
Washington Commanders
Prediction: They will finally achieve some modicum of stability at the quarterback position.
While their draft position (16th) makes them look like a team out of striking distance, and Washington may certainly be gun shy after trading so much capital for Robert Griffin III a decade back, this is a year where four or possibly five first-round quarterbacks are in the pool. Washington realizes what its counterpart in Philadelphia has with Hurts: draft, develop and spend big on the rookie deal. Otherwise, the Commanders are not luring anyone of stature to D.C.
