Assessing Whether Derek Carr Makes The Saints Super Bowl Contenders
Derek Carr provided a reminder for why Saints fans deserve the best when he tweeted a video Monday morning of Tyrann Mathieu standing at midfield at the Superdome.
After Mathieu dropped his right fist, the Superdome crowd erupted to chant … Who dat? Who dat? Who dat say dey gonna beat dem Saints?
It’s the type of video that gives fans chills and makes them miss football. It was also a unique way for Carr to announce he’s concluding his free-agency tour and joining the Saints.
Carr will reportedly get $100 million fully guaranteed on the four-year, $150 million deal he agreed to with the Saints, which was structured to help with their cap issues—the Saints were $18.1 million over the cap as of Monday morning, according to OvertheCap.com.
Carr has 100 million reasons for why this deal makes sense for him. (Among them: He got a no-trade clause, and he will get to throw to wide receiver Chris Olave.) But it’s hard to find reasons for why this makes sense for New Orleans, aside from two obvious ones.
Reason No. 1: Saints fans deserving the best includes a competitive team annually.
Reason No. 2: The Saints are now the best team in the lackluster NFC South, at least on paper.
There’s not much after those two reasons, although fielding a competitive team should always be enough for expressing interest in quality players who are available. But there are different ways to stay competitive while also addressing a messy salary cap.
The Saints are again delaying the debt by adding Carr, with the hopes of winning the NFC South and ultimately the Super Bowl. But even with Carr, this Saints roster doesn’t appear to be a Super Bowl contender, and good luck making upgrades in free agency when the franchise already had to create cap space to add Carr’s new deal.
Carr was released by Las Vegas on Feb. 14 after he declined to waive the no-trade clause in his contract.
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Sure, the NFL is unpredictable and you never know who’s going to ascend—take the 2022 Eagles or the ’21 Bengals, for example. You stay competitive to potentially be one of the five or six teams that advance to the playoffs after not making it the year before. But, again, there are better ways to do so.
The Saints are better with Carr, but maybe not drastically more so than if the team had gone a different route, such as signing quarterback Jacoby Brissett on a bargain deal to pair with a rookie quarterback. (Tennessee’s Hendon Hooker could be available for the Saints at pick No. 29.)
But the Saints have made their decision, and GM Mickey Loomis will now need to stick with it, a.k.a. create cap space by cutting a few veterans and restructuring contracts to fit Carr onto their payroll.
The Rams are in a similar position as the Saints with their cap space problems—and they, too, have said they want to remain competitive—but they are no longer delaying the debt. Los Angeles will soon release Bobby Wagner and has Jalen Ramsey, Allen Robinson and Leonard Floyd on the trading block. The Rams reportedly are willing to cut Floyd to eat $19 million in dead money this year and could take on another $11 million in dead money if they manage to trade Robinson before June 1.
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The Rams are paying quality players to leave so they can have a healthy salary cap in 2024, but it’s easier to acknowledge the debt after winning a recent Super Bowl and having Stan-Kroenke-level money.
The Saints haven’t won the Super Bowl since the 2009 season and declined to alter their all-in philosophy after Drew Brees retired and Sean Payton left. The iceberg of debt was coming, and yet New Orleans hasn’t stirred in a different direction.
Carr will have Olave, the dynamic wideout coming off a memorable rookie season, but it’s uncertain whether he’ll have running back Alvin Kamara, who has legal troubles following a fight in Las Vegas, or wide receiver Michael Thomas, who might be on the move after another injury-riddled season.
Olave played in 15 games for the Saints in 2022, totally 1,042 yards, 72 receptions and four touchdowns.
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Also, Saints coach Dennis Allen might be on the hot seat after a rocky first season with the franchise. He hasn’t had much success overall in his career as a head coach, either, which includes a three-year stint in Oakland where he coached Carr as a rookie in 2014.
The Steelers and Ravens, on the other hand, can afford to stay competitive annually because they have proven coaches in Mike Tomlin and John Harbaugh, respectively.
It’s admirable that the Saints have a win-now mindset and refuse to go the full tear-down route (such as the Bears and Texans have in recent years). The approach, however, is difficult to understand.
If the Carr signing goes wrong, the Saints might find themselves in the Colts’ futile cycle of trying to revive veteran quarterbacks in need of a fresh start. (Indianapolis will probably shift its approach by drafting a quarterback in the first-round next month.)
On one hand, the Seahawks got results from Geno Smith, and so did the Lions with Jared Goff. But those two teams have a healthy salary cap. Adding Carr and paying him $100 million over the next three years with a messy salary cap is a gamble for the Saints, but at least they’re aiming for a Super Bowl. Making the playoffs and being competitive is nice, but it’s not the end game.
Only time will tell if Saints fans are truly getting the best from this all-gas, no-brakes approach from the organization.
