The Eagles’ Pattern That Says They Won’t Take This Top Prospect Thursday
Three days to go. Let’s dive in …
• I said Monday morning that I doubt the Eagles take Bijan Robinson at No. 10. I feel that way because so much of their history says they won’t: Over Howie Roseman’s 23 drafts in Philadelphia, they’ve taken five backs in the top 100 picks, and none in the top 50. Since he became GM in 2010, there’s been one back taken in the top 100 by the Eagles—and Roseman just let that back, Miles Sanders, walk without incident in free agency.
My gut tells me they’re going to stick to their guns on that.
That said, over the weekend, I was told, and later confirmed, a story about them from 2017. The Eagles were prepared to take Christian McCaffrey with the 14th pick (the pick they got from the Vikings for Sam Bradford), had the ex–Stanford star fallen to them. McCaffrey didn’t, and Philadelphia wound up with Tennessee pass rusher Derek Barnett instead. The Eagles won the Super Bowl nine months later, Barnett was just O.K., and McCaffrey became, and remains, a big star in the pros.
So why were the Eagles willing to break their pattern of passing on running backs for McCaffrey? My understanding is that it was because of the value he brought to the passing game: McCaffrey was considered a good enough receiver coming out of school to be a high draft pick purely as a slot.
Robinson is widely considered the top back in the draft.
Darron Cummings, File/AP
The question, to me, becomes whether you see Robinson that way. And I think, in the end, he’s not quite that as a pass catcher. “He’s an every-down grinder, really good in protection, too,” said one coach. “But you’re not gonna be calling plays for him in the pass game that aren’t screen or flat routes.” Which is to say he’s good in that area, like, say, Ezekiel Elliott was. Robinson’s just not special there, like McCaffrey was.
Either way, the McCaffrey story at least got me thinking a little more on Philly and Robinson.
• Bengals OT La’el Collins updated his status with the Cincinnati media on Monday, telling reporters that he won’t put a timetable on his recovery, but that he feels good enough to where he could probably slap a brace on his surgically-repaired knee and go tomorrow, if the Bengals were playing a game.
That, of course, is a tad aggressive. Collins is less than five months removed from tearing his ACL, an injury that happened in Week 16. That said, positive signs on his progress could, potentially, make the Bengals a little more amenable to trading Jonah Williams, who they’d hoped to flip to right tackle after signing Orlando Brown Jr. (and who requested a trade because he didn’t want to make that switch).
Another thing that helps Cincinnati here is the fervor for tackles in the top 20 of the draft. We’re going to get to a point in the teens where there will be a tackle-hungry team that’s left without one, which, obviously, could generate a trade partner for the Bengals.
• Another name to watch as a potential trade target this weekend would be Dalvin Cook. The Vikings have been communicative with their star tailback—and receptive to the idea of bringing him back—but it just won’t happen at the rate of $11 million he’s due this fall.
Minnesota hasn’t shopped Cook, but if it comes away with a back in the first three rounds, I’d bet the Vikings will be open to the idea of moving him on Saturday.
Cook could be on the move if Minnesota doesn’t
Matt Krohn/USA TODAY Sports
Of course, I’d imagine a team trading for him would want to amend his contract too.
• We mentioned the Steelers (for an offensive lineman) and Chiefs (for a skill player) as potential trade-up teams in the Monday column. I’d put the Saints in that category as well, with their history being that they identify guys and aren’t afraid to make moves up for them (last year, they went up for Chris Olave), even if costs them future capital.
• There certainly could be teams, along those lines, looking for capital for 2024, particularly ones that may pass on this year’s quarterback class—with USC’s Caleb Williams and UNC’s Drake Maye looming as perhaps the two best prospects at the position since Trevor Lawrence came into the NFL in ’21.
• Just because Derrick Henry’s name comes up in trade talk doesn’t mean someone will be willing to part with what it’d take to pry him from the Titans. And there are a couple reasons for that. One, not many teams value the type of back Henry is the way Tennessee does, so, from their perspective, they would be taking nickels on the dollar for him. Then, there’s his mileage. He was in the same draft class as Elliott, has recorded 1,750 career carries, has gotten nicked up the last couple years and turns 30 in eight months.
Add his contract to the mix, and it’s hard to imagine new Titans GM Ran Carthon will come across a trade package that’s better for his team than just holding on to Henry.
• I love 49ers GM John Lynch’s response to the concept of taking trade calls on Nick Bosa: “That hotline is closed. That never opened.” Of course, Lynch knows why the question’s being asked, and he also knows he’s going to have make Bosa an even wealthier man before he takes another snap for the Niners. (Lynch also said, for what it’s worth, that he expects Trey Lance to be a Niner in 2023. We’ll see if they take a QB this weekend.)
• There are two guys I mentioned that the NFL is higher on than your mock-draft website thinks: I could see Ohio State’s Paris Johnson Jr. going third to the Cardinals, seventh to the Raiders or ninth to the Bears; and I could see Illinois’ Devon Witherspoon going to the Cards, Raiders, or Lions at No. 6. Both have made very strong impressions through the pre-draft process.
• As much as the S2 test is getting dumped on now, I’d tell you there are a good amount of NFL folks who are putting real stock in it. And it could affect a few things in the first round on Thursday night.
