2023 NFL Draft Winners and Losers: Best Picks, Worst Decisions
The NFL draft is complete. And while we wait for actual game evidence to provide the basis for our second-guesses and doubts, we will fill the void with evidence-free second-guesses and doubts.
In reality, I thought there were fewer teams in 2023 that were obviously flailing. There are more teams embracing alternative building strategies, and, at least on a surface level, more teams clinging to quantifiable measures of next-level success. Sure, a few running backs were taken in the first round, but as I wrote on the night of Round 1, I find the moves defensible at the moment. While I am more willing than most to give people the benefit of the doubt at this point, it wasn’t as hard to try to understand what the Lions, for example, were trying to do, even if many of us would have given them one of the worst day-after grades.
So, at this point, we’ll parse out the winners and losers column with surprisingly little animus. Even the Cardinals, who can’t seem to go four minutes without triggering an NFL investigation, had a fairly nice weekend. That, and more, below …
Winners and losers on draft day are obviously not limited strictly to the draft picks.
Tommy Gilligan/USA TODAY Sports (Jackson); Kirby Lee/USA TODAY Sports (Richardson); Mark J. Rebilas/USA TODAY Sports (Roseman)
Winners
• Eric DeCosta: Extending things a bit beyond the scope of merely the draft, the Ravens GM secured a long-term, non-fully-guaranteed deal with Lamar Jackson and then found himself firmly positioned in the middle of the wide receiver run that eluded him a year ago. While Baltimore has endured its share of criticism for leaving the position alone, or schematically isolating the few good pass catchers the team did have, no one can deny the Ravens’ aggressiveness this offseason. First-round pick Zay Flowers in particular gives them a cost-controlled option who can learn the ropes under Odell Beckham Jr.
• Josh Allen: As I mentioned on the first-round breakdown on The MMQB Podcast, I think the Dalton Kincaid selection provides one massive boost to Allen immediately: It gives him a big slot receiver who can clear out space close to the line of scrimmage and dominate at the goal line. The reason this is a big deal? It will hopefully cut down on the number of times Allen leaves the pocket and throws himself into explosive hits like a stuntman. Allen was worn down emotionally at the end of last season, but there’s no denying that he was reeling physically, too. Defenses began to match Allen’s strength by spying him with beefier defenders who would make sneaking the ball seem like less of a good idea. Kincaid is supposedly not an elite blocker, but as a hybrid tight end—especially with the skilled Dawson Knox also in the formation—he’ll need to merely affect a defender’s path, not bury him in the grass. This was the start of a very good draft for the Bills.
• Passive aggression: One of the best parts of the Aaron Rodgers trade was the fact that the first-round pick swap put the Jets just one pick behind the Patriots in the first round—and it’s always worth examining how Bill Belichick interacts with the one team he takes the most pleasure in destroying. As it turned out, the number of solid tackles in the round was dwindling and the Patriots, knowing it may have been possible the Jets were interested in one of those players, given the uncertainty plaguing their offensive line, glady moved back from No. 14 to No. 17 so the Steelers could nab the last one at that tier. We’re taught in life that forgiveness is often the best answer, but there is also something legendary about pettiness that is harbored and grown like an intricate spice garden. Such is Belichick’s tapestry of Jets experiences. The question will now become whether the presence of Rodgers complicates his attempted erasure of the franchise.
Garoppolo will not face a challenge from a highly drafted rookie QB.
Candice Ward/USA TODAY Sports
• Jimmy Garoppolo: I’m not sure what the long-term plan is in Las Vegas. But, the Raiders were on the board with a chance to nab Will Levis and passed. Instead, the Raiders had a pretty foundational draft—quietly, I’d argue, one of the best classes. Getting edge rusher Tyree Wilson, whom I liked a little bit better than Will Anderson Jr., along with Michael Mayer in the second round, is as close to thievery as we’ll see. Mayer, especially, should not have been available early in the second round. I think a lot of teams overthought themselves and are undervaluing the benefits of an intermediate receiver who can contribute to the run game as a blocker. All of this is a long way of saying Garoppolo won’t field any pressure for his job from the draft class. He got a great target. He’ll get a happy coach in Josh McDaniels, who also got to draft Tre Tucker, satisfying McDaniels’s forever need for receivers who were great high school quarterbacks. And forward they’ll march in Vegas, all smiles.
• Jim Irsay: I’ve spent my five-year career at Sports Illustrated writing ridiculous stuff and tweeting inane nonsense while my more talented colleagues keep the brand afloat with actual hard work. And, boy, has that been nice for me. So I can uniquely understand what it must be like to be the suddenly caramel-haired owner of the Colts, who was tweeting engagement-grabbing nonsense about selecting Levis in the second round while his GM was doing some absolute work. I know many of us in the media have spent a lot of time hyping up Chris Ballard, and ultimately the Colts ended up with a good guard and middle linebacker for all the spilled ink. But how can you not drop jaws over a class that includes Anthony Richardson, Josh Downs and Julius Brents? I thought Brents and Downs were potential first-round talents, especially Brents, the Kansas State cornerback. It’s not good that the Colts had so many needs, but it’s pretty impressive to see how strategically they attacked them.
• Anthony Richardson’s little brother: No jokes here, simply respect. Have you ever seen a cooler person?
• Life after Rodgers: I think people may be sleeping a bit on the strength of the Packers’ draft class. My favorite part was doubling down on the tight end position with the Day 2 additions of Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft, who will truly diversify this front while helping Matt LaFleur reinvest in the running game. These are big, rangy pass catchers who can block, stretch the field and increase the yardage after the catch in the quick game. I don’t know whether this is necessarily the kind of formational feel Rodgers would have liked. But now that he’s gone, the Packers can fortify Jordan Love and hand him the pieces on offense that can force opposing defenses into base looks.
• Ron Rivera: Man, do I applaud his restraint. The Commanders are, essentially, ownerless for the moment while they work through the sale of the franchise. If Sports Illustrated had no leadership and I had the green light to make massive decisions, I think we’d have three consecutive Guy Fieri covers, each celebrating a different era of his life. Amid relative chaos, the Commanders could have traded up to draft a quarterback, selected Bijan Robinson and Jamyr Gibbs back to back or compiled four picks in the early twenties to draft the entire year’s receiving class. Instead, they selected a pair of cornerbacks and a center out of Arkansas. In front of Rivera was an entire ice cream bar of limitless toppings. Sometimes, you have to appreciate the man who leaves with just one scoop of vanilla.
Losers
• Some obscure, small-school player whom Belichick would have taken in the first round had Christian Gonzalez not fallen to him: Most seasons, it would not be surprising to see Belichick enter into the draft room and slap: Hunter Luepke, fullback, North Dakota State on the board and walk away. This year, Belichick got arguably the best cornerback prospect in the draft kicked to him at No. 17. Gonzalez was a player whom most of us had heard of before the draft started, which represents a major turning point for the coach who would prefer his Alaskan Klee-Kai phone in some hybrid safety from Endicott College. No offense to either Luepke or Endicott, neither of which are obscure in the grand scheme of things. Also, fear not, Belichick drafted a kicker in the fourth round to make us feel normal again.
• Executives holding firm on Arizona’s draconian take-home container policy: I’m going to try what an old boss referred to as a “compliment sandwich” here. This is the managerial technique where you bury the bad news in between two pieces of less horrendous news. I think the Cardinals had one of the best drafts of the year. They acknowledged the fact that they are very thin at multiple spots and kept searching for opportunities to trade back while still finding value. Because of Kyler Murray’s health, 2023 is going to be a bit of a lost season, anyway. Getting some young players repetitions will help mitigate the length of Arizona’s inevitable struggle curve. The bad news, obviously, is the Cardinals have to change their policy of deducting take-home meals from paychecks now. The tidbit, revealed in an NFLPA survey that declared the franchise one of the worst in the NFL, flies in the face of what most incoming college players experience at dining halls across the country. With Arizona bringing in so many rookies, it has effectively set the stage for cafeteria mutiny.
As an aside, can we just appreciate for one second how wild the Cardinals have been? First, that survey came out declaring them one of the least enjoyable places to play in the league. Then, a lawsuit alleged their owner was handing out burner phones (on top of a few other more unsavory actions). Then, they got nabbed for tampering in the hiring of their new coach Jonathan Gannon. Good luck, rookies!
More speed in Miami ... good luck, defenders!
Jerome Miron/USA TODAY Sports
• Old and slow defenders in the AFC East: The Dolphins used their second draft pick on RB Devon Achane out of Texas A&M. And, if you have not seen this person run in the open field, I highly suggest you log onto YouTube, clear out all your suggested Andrew Huberman content and give this highlight reel a ride. Speed is the great destabilizing factor for a modern defense, and the Dolphins are hoarding players with fast 40 times like a reincarnated ghost of Al Davis. Opponents are going to have maybe one or two defenders fast enough to keep up with Achane. Then, they’ll just have to rustle up someone to mark Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. No problem, right?
• GMs who cannot be as enthusiastic about their picks as Brad Holmes: Take a look at this. The Lions select the second-best running back in the draft in the top 15, and Holmes, alongside Dan Campbell, freaked out like they got Pearl Jam tickets without paying the Ticketmaster surcharge. I don’t know what percentage of this is simply a performance, but if excitement level equates to conviction in the eyes of anyone, how can most assume they had a better draft than the Lions? Remember the Penei Sewell pick? Holmes looked like he and Campbell were about to clear chairs out of the room and start Jell-O wrestling. His energy is quickly becoming more than just contagious; it has to be threatening to every other GM on a war room camera who has to pretend to be just as happy. Let’s see a backflip, Brian Gutekunst.
• Self-awareness in Cleveland: Not only did the Browns get pummeled in the comments section for bragging about the Deshaun Watson trade as their would-be first-round pick scrolled by, but their quarterback rolled onto Twitter spaces to talk about what a “toxic” situation Elijah Moore came from with the Jets. This experiment may very well pan out for the Browns, and I hope they enjoy a wild-card berth every handful of seasons while paying more for a quarterback—both in the court of public opinion and through his actual paychecks—than any team in NFL history. But, boy, will this be a bumpy ride when it appears there is such a pronounced inability to read a room.
• Executives who aren’t Howie Roseman: My fascination with Roseman is nearing Robert Caro–LBJ levels, and there is no doubt that he has outmaneuvered the rest of the NFL in recent years when it comes to manipulating draft capital and putting the Eagles in position to draft premium talent. But, it is also enjoyable to think about explaining their plan to a fifth-grader.
Child: How did the Eagles get so good?
Parent: Well son/daughter, they traded for one of the best receivers in the NFL, traded for a bunch of good cornerbacks that other teams were getting rid of for no reason, then the Lions handed them a perfectly good dual-threat running back on Day 3 of the draft. Then, the Eagles drafted almost the entirety of Georgia’s historically good defense, since no one could quite figure out which of the players made the team so good.
Child: Why doesn’t every GM do this?
Parent: That’s enough questions. Go to bed.
The Eagles are coming off their second Super Bowl appearance in six seasons, have Jalen Hurts signed long-term and remain loaded.
• Teams trying to stop Joe Burrow: When I look across the NFL and see how the Bengals’ roster is currently built, I wonder which defenses are consistently good enough to stop Burrow from carving them up. The only one I think is built the right way is the one Burrow practices against every afternoon. I thought the Bengals made one of my favorite picks by nabbing DJ Turner II out of Michigan in the second round at No. 60. I had heard through the rumor mill that Turner was creeping up into first-round status, which is why I had the speedy cornerback out of Michigan going to the Bengals in the first round of my mock. In addition to Turner, the Bengals managed a high-upside edge rusher, Myles Murphy, in the first round.
