2023 NFL Franchise Tag Deadline Predictions: Four Players Face Uphill Battles

Running backs Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs and Tony Pollard are fighting for multiyear contracts, while Evan Engram is hoping to get paid in Jacksonville.

The clock is ticking for the four remaining franchise-tagged players to strike multiyear contract commitments from their respective teams before Monday’s 4 p.m. ET deadline.

Without new deals, tight end Evan Engram and running backs Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs and Tony Pollard would have to play on one-year franchise tags and wouldn’t be allowed to negotiate contract extensions until after the 2023 season. From this group, only Pollard has signed his franchise-tagged contract, but he’s still allowed to negotiate a long-term contract before Monday’s deadline.

Six players were initially tagged in March, but quarterback Lamar Jackson and defensive tackle Daron Payne signed lucrative extensions this offseason. A few more players could possibly ditch the franchise tag ahead of Monday’s deadline, but it won’t be easy for the running backs.

Barkley and Jacobs have until 4 p.m. ET to sign their franchise tags unless they negotiate an extension.

Bill Streicher/USA TODAY Sports (Barkley); Gary A. Vasquez/USA TODAY Sports (Jacobs)

We examined the four franchise-tagged players’ situations and made predictions for whether they’ll get an extension, hold in or practice and play on the one-year tag. 

Saquon Barkley, RB, Giants

Prediction: Extension

This might be the toughest prediction from the four franchise-tagged players, but it’s a good sign that the Giants reportedly put the offer of $13 million per year back on the table after pulling it in March. Given how devalued the running back position has become, it’s a bit surprising that Barkley hasn’t accepted the offer, but perhaps the team lowballed him with how the contract was structured when it comes to guarantees. If Barkley is not looking to top Christian McCaffrey’s $16 million per year salary, perhaps a guaranteed contract around $25 million is enough to avoid a hold-in situation (in lieu of holding out at the start of training camp, players show up but don’t practice to avoid $50,000 per day fines) this summer.

Also, the Giants have invested in their core group this offseason by re-signing quarterback Daniel Jones and defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence. Barkley, 26, was instrumental in the Giants’ returning to the postseason last year. He had a bounce-back 2022 season, rushing for 1,312 yards and 10 touchdowns. But banking on Barkley to remain healthy is risky: The two-time Pro Bowler missed a combined 20 games between ’19 and ’21.

Perhaps the Giants do a front-loaded contract with an out after two seasons, similar to how the team structured Jones’s four-year, $160 million contract. This Giants regime seems set on committing to this core group for at least two more seasons, and they’re known for getting deals done at the buzzer. Jones agreed to his contract extension hours before the deadline to franchise tag players. 

Evan Engram, TE, Jaguars

Prediction: Extension

After a tumultuous five-year stint with the Giants, Engram had a smooth first season with the Jaguars, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he starts his second season in Jacksonville with a multiyear contract extension. Engram quickly won over Doug Pederson and Trevor Lawrence with his leadership and clutch plays on the field. Engram had a career year in 2022 with 73 catches for 766 yards and four touchdowns. The ’17 first-round pick also stepped up in the postseason, recording 12 catches for 124 yards and one touchdown in the two playoff games against the Chargers and Chiefs.

The Jaguars have two top priorities currently: ensuring they have enough money-cap space to re-sign Lawrence next offseason and retaining his valuable weapons. With the way Engram played last season, he definitely falls under the valuable weapons category. If Engram, 28, doesn’t agree to a multiyear extension before Monday’s deadline, he would be set to make about $11 million in 2023 under the one-year franchise tag.

Josh Jacobs, RB, Raiders

Prediction: Hold In

Jacobs’s cryptic tweet last month might have given us the answer to this prediction: “Sometimes it’s not about you. We gotta do it for the ones after us.” That sure sounds like a running back willing to miss training camp, and maybe even regular-season games, to move up the pay scale for the position. With most teams looking to pay their top backs under $10 million annually, it might be on Jacobs, Barkley and Pollard to stop the trend. Jacobs proved his worth last season by running for 1,653 yards to win the rushing title, and was efficient with his carries, averaging 4.9 yards per attempt. From the three running backs on this list, it appears Barkley will command the most money, but Jacobs has a strong case to get more or at least come close. He’s been durable for most of his career and doesn’t have wear and tear on his legs, with fewer than 273 carries during each of his first three seasons. (He recorded a career-high 340 carries in 2022.)

Jacobs, 25, probably wouldn’t be open to the Raiders’ giving him another heavy workload—which is possible with Jimmy Garoppolo as the starting quarterback—without a multiyear contract commitment. Jacobs looking to improve salaries for running backs is admirable, but he will have an uphill battle with teams consistently finding star running backs in the draft, such as 2022 second-round picks Kenneth Walker III and Breece Hall.

Tony Pollard, RB, Cowboys

Prediction: Plays on the tag

Pollard didn’t waste time signing his one-year, $10 million franchise-tagged contract, putting pen to paper in March. It was a smart move for Pollard to sign, because it’s guaranteed money and he’s coming off ankle surgery. Also, the eight-figure salary for the 2019 fourth-round pick is drastically more than his entire rookie contract: four years, $3.18 million. But Pollard does have some leverage and could see a multiyear contract extension before Monday’s deadline. For starters, a new contract for Pollard would create more cap space this year to add another veteran or two (Ezekiel Elliott reunion?), and a smaller cap hit would be beneficial down the line with the Cowboys’ needing to pay Micah Parsons, CeeDee Lamb and Trevon Diggs. Also, Dak Prescott is due for another extension.

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But more important for Pollard, he’s a top playmaker for the Cowboys after delivering a career year with 1,007 rushing yards and 11 total touchdowns. At age 26, Pollard is in the prime of his career, with low usage in his first four seasons, and likely won’t command as much as Barkley. A three-year, $27 million contract extension along with a void year could be enough to get it done in Dallas. Perhaps he’ll surpass $10 million annually, especially if Barkley gets more than $13 million per year. But as always, it’s all about the guaranteed money in the NFL.

Pollard has a strong shot to get paid, but the Cowboys might prioritize the new deals for Lamb and Diggs this summer.