Four Questions: The 49ers Big Picture

The Niners are stuck in a loop. Will they get out of it, can they get out of it?

Jan 9, 2022; Inglewood, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers president Jed York before the game / Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

At the NFL Annual Meeting in Orlando, 49ers Owner and CEO Jed York shared his perspective on the team’s past and future. A look at that and the upcoming draft in this edition of four questions.

1. York attributed the past success of Eddie DeBartolo to no salary cap and placed the current Niners at the vanguard of the league in achieving optimal success for a team without the league’s best quarterback. Truth or fiction?

Fiction. DeBartolo won a Super Bowl in the first year of the salary cap in 1994. Prior to that, every team in the league had no cap, DeBartolo was willing to spend to win – and won five rings.

York would have you believe Eddie D’s willingness to write checks was why the Niners won. That was part of it, but they also had Bill Walsh’s innovation, an excellent group of coaches, and the primary separation between then and now, a creative and aggressive front office led by Walsh and John McVay.

Are Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch even capable of devoting a draft to one position group? If ever there was a time, it’s now at offensive line. They’ll draft linemen but three of the first four as Walsh and McVay did in the secondary in 1980? No.

Dealing up from the end of the first to land the impact playmaker they needed in Jerry Rice? Nope.

To trade down and keep trading down in the 1986 draft and landing eight starters and contributors including a Hall of Famer in Charles Haley in the fourth? No.

The Lemonade Stand was willing to take risks, to challenge their own thinking, and correct mistakes. York points to not having the league’s best quarterback while failing to mention Kyle Shanahan chose not to scout Patrick Mahomes and had an early pick to select him.

2.      The current 49ers seem to be unable to correct their own mistakes, the same issues surfaced in both Super Bowl defeats to Kansas City. Are York’s 49ers stuck jn a loop?

Yes. This is where York has to learn from the Lemonade Stand and make necessary changes. Until he does, the 49ers will repeat the same mistakes and are trapped in a closed loop.

Here is the essence of the 49ers problem:

York is unwilling to enact needed changes on the football side because Shanahan is the franchise cash cow.

Shanahan leads a contender that packs the house and delivers a pure profit home playoff game or two annually. The franchise is optimized financially. York’s priorities are filled. So not wanting to disrupt the cash cow, York empowers Shanahan and leaves him alone.

Shanahan doesn’t know the new overtime rules in the Super Bowl and there are no repercussions. Freezes in Philly when DeVonta Smith traps the ball and Kyle doesn’t throw a challenge flag. Forgets about Deebo Samuel of the final 10 minutes of the NFC Championship against the Rams.

Baltimore hires an Assistant Game Manager for John Harbaugh, the Rams do the same for Sean McVay, both coaches have won rings. Yet in Santa Clara, nothing. Can’t disrupt the cash cow.

Multiple #1s are traded for Trey Lance, one of the worst deals in NFL history. Yet no repercussions. Shanahan remains the true GM as Lynch answers to him.

York is the only one in the organization who can tell Shanahan no. Yet he chooses not to. Money over football. The Marketing Machine vs. the Lemonade Stand. No rings vs. five. You are your priorities.

The 49ers lose championship games because playoff games are won on matchups and the Niners lose on the offensive line. Shanahan refuses to prioritize it. He speaks t the value of continuity and praises Colton McKivitz after giving up a league high 13 sacks. No one is there to tell Shanahan no, no one is there to strip him of final personnel control.

The cash cow’s financial success literally buys him immunity.

3.      What will the 49ers do at 31 in the draft?

I think they will be focused on who drops not need. Three players are mocked in the late 1st round that I believe the 49ers are hoping will fall to them: Jer’Zhan Newton, the 3-tech defensive tackle from Illinois, Cooper DeJean, the free safety/defensive back/returner from Iowa, and Kool-Aid McKinstry, the top-three cover corner from Alabama.

If one of them falls to 31, I think they would be the pick. If none do, then it’s a scramble, and possibly a trade down.

What I would do, trade up for Amarius Mims using a 1st and 3rd, and take Christian Haynes in the 2nd, get your offensive line nucleus of the next decade, your eventual starting left tackle and center. Chances of that, zero. Would Walsh and McVay consider that, yes.

4.      Any surprise hot take for the draft?

It’s no longer a surprise that quarterbacks go 1-4 via trade, but pay attention to the late 1st and potential moves for Michael Penix Jr. and Bo Nix. The Niners may be involved in one of those deals to move down.

An unexpected move up may come from Kansas City. I think Chiefs GM Brett Veach will be hoping to move up from 32, searching for a pick that can get him LSU’s Brian Thomas Jr., the draft’s consensus #4 wide receiver.