Assessing How Likely the 49ers are to Win the NFC West

Are they sleepers?

Eric Hartline-Imagn Images

If the San Francisco 49ers want to be the champions in 2026 the are going to need to beat the champions in 2025. According to Kevin Patra of NFL Network, it is more likely than not that the Seattle Seahawks repeat as division champions, meaning that San Francisco will be dueling for a Wild Card again in 2026. 

The San Francisco 49ers are not projected to unseat the Seattle Seahawks

Patra ranked the eight division champions from last season based on how vulnerable they are entering the 2026 season. The Seahawks came in fifth, meaning there are four teams more likely to fall off and lose the division crown. 

While fifth is not a strong proclamation that Seattle will win the division, it is a strong sign of faith, as they are above average in their ability to repeat. 

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When you break down the divisions, it is hard to argue. Most will see the Pittsburgh Steelers and Carolina Panthers as the easy two teams to choose to lose the division lead. Both titles seemed fluky, and neither team is drastically improved. 

Patra went with the Chicago Bears and Denver Broncos as the two teams ahead of Seattle. This seems to be a bet on Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert in the AFC West, which is fair. It is also signaling that Seattle is a touch stronger than Denver, which might also be true. 

With Chicago, the Packers, and Lions all good, but San Francisco and the Rams are widely viewed as bigger Super Bowl contenders. So, putting Chicago as the more vulnerable team than Seattle is strictly about the belief that Chicago was not as good last year, and their core will not take a step this year. Seattle does deserve a bit more grace than Chicago, considering they did win a Super Bowl.

The 49ers do pose as a more threatening team to the Seahawks than the Buffalo Bills pose to the New England Patriots based on this ranking. This might be fair with the Bills' new coaching staff being questionable. 

The Philadelphia Eagles and Jacksonville Jaguars are the two division winners most likely to repeat based on this ranking. Philadelphia does not have strong competition, and if Houston cannot beat the Jaguars, it is hard to see the other two AFC South teams making a run next year. 

Usually, three or four division winners fall off, so Seattle is right in the mix to be that team.