History Suggests Jordan James Faces Long Odds with 49ers

The San Francisco 49ers are hoping for Jordan James to bounce back after a disappointing rookie season. While there is always room for optimism, history suggests that running backs who are drafted late and do not produce early end up getting limited chances in the NFL.

The San Francisco 49ers might see the writing on the wall for Jordan James

Since 2000, there have been 221 running backs drafted after the 100th pick to have 30 carries or fewer in their rookie season. That is much higher than James, but gives us a bigger sample. Of that group, only four of them ended up having a 1,000-yard rushing season in their career. There are some pass catchers in the group that turned out solid, such as Darren Sproles, Theo Reddick, and James White. However, the true running backs to get drafted late and find success in the NFL are Rudi Johnson, Michael Turner, Ahmad Bradshaw, and Justin Forsett.

Turner and Johnson had three seasons over 1,000 yards, Bradshaw had two, and Forsett had one. So, even if James did have a big year, there is a chance that it will be a flash rather than a sustained success. There are just a few other names worth mentioning who have come into being role players in the NFL.

The best other names from the list include Boston Scott, Bilal Powell, Dion Lewis, James Starks, and Rex Burkhead. The reality is that these are the highest upside names; the rest of the names on the list are much more unknown.

Recent names include Eric Gray, Isaiah Spiller, Mark Walton, and Brian Hill. These are the names that he is mostly going to be clumped in with heading into his second year.

So, the odds of being a legitimate starter are very low due to recent history, and the odds of even catching on as a competent backup are not high.

This is why the 49ers drafted Kaelon Black in the third round. They took a swing at James, and they likely saw in one year that the odds of him working out are low. He can compete with Black, but there is no sure thing he wins a backup role, and he might be in line for another season with fewer than 30 carries. Once Black proves he can get on the field, James might lose all of his chances.

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