49ers at the Crossroads: What's at Stake in 2023

Either the Niners win a Super Bowl and stay the course, or lose in the playoffs and pivot to a new blueprint around the older core.

As the Niners put on pads at training camp, the preparation for this year gets more intense. The upcoming season carries an intensity of its own, the weight of Super Bowl expectations, and a ticking clock for the older core of the team.

As George Kittle said recently, “That’s something our team is highly aware of. There are a lot of highly-paid players on the team that have earned that money, can only pay so many guys…We understand that the window, whatever that is, could be closing.”

Trent Williams, Kyle Juszczyk, Javon Hargrave, Arik Armstead, and George Kittle will all be in their thirties this season. For Kyle Shanahan intriguing new options emerge in 2024. Minnesota quarterback Kirk Cousins hits free agency and the Niners have 11 picks in the 2024 draft. The opportunity to address the team’s biggest holes will be available.

This season leads to a crossroads, either the Niners win a Super Bowl and stay the course, or lose in the playoffs and pivot to a new blueprint around the older core.

My prediction is the Niners come up short for the same reason as last year, they can’t protect the quarterback against the top defensive lines of the league. If that’s how it goes down, I expect Shanahan to prioritize signing Cousins and using the draft aggressively.

Kirk Cousins
The endless debate of Brock Purdy vs. Trey Lance could be rendered irrelevant if the Niners don’t win the Super Bowl this year. The Niners could go all out to sign Cousins and trade Lance for a pick with Purdy becoming the backup.

If Shanahan wants to sign Cousins, doing so won’t be easy. While Cousins would likely be Kyle’s first choice with a bullet, the reverse may not be true. Their time together in Washington wasn’t always smooth. 

In addition, three quarterback-needy teams will each have over $60 million in cap room: New England (80), Washington (64), and Tennessee (62). The Niners do have an advantage though in being the only title contender among the four.

They can create space by reworking Deebo Samuel’s deal, will have some room with Nick Bosa’s impending extension, and a new deal next year for Brandon Aiyuk. Juszczyk has a $7.6 million contract on the books next year, but a dead cap hit of just 2.6 million. It’s unlikely they release him, but it is an available option if that’s what it takes to get who Shanahan has coveted for years. Plus, Lance’s contract would be dealt away. Cap room could be made to sign Cousins.

Would Cousins’ age stop Shanahan’s interest? Unlikely in an era where Tom Brady proved production can go into the 40s and Cousins has remained healthy. However, keeping Cousins healthy in Santa Clara would require further changes….

Right Tackle
The Niners passed on drafting or signing a starting right tackle this year, my speculation is threefold: they wanted to see what they had in Colton McKivitz, they didn’t like the options in the draft and free agency, and they’re planning to resolve the position in next year’s draft with McKivitz then becoming the backup.

The 2023 draft had one tackle the Niners were rumored to be interested in, Oklahoma’s Wanya Morris, but he was selected just five picks after Ji’Ayir Brown by Kansas City. Shanahan said the Niners wanted someone who had time at right tackle and the physical profile they want at the position, so they passed on the remaining tackles.

The 2024 draft addresses those concerns. Several of the top tackles in the draft will have spent at least a season at right tackle, one has played each year of his college career at right tackle in Notre Dame’s Blake Fisher, projected to go in the late first round to early second. The Niners' need for a cap-friendly contract and impact talent at the position will finally be available when they pick in the first. If Shanahan doesn’t take a right tackle, he’ll have some explaining to do.

Much will depend on addressing the quarterback situation. If the Niners fail to sign Cousins but still want a new talent at quarterback, they could look at the position in the late first, potentially led by Washington’s Michael Penix Jr.

Cornerback
In my view, this is the third roster hole, a shutdown corner opposite Charvarius Ward. Deommodore Lenoir has played well, but at his size, he may be best suited for nickel. The Niners are high on Darrell Luter Jr., and with defensive coordinator Steve Wilks developing him, Luter Jr. may emerge as the player to fill this need.

The 2023 draft was particularly deep at corner but draft analysts predict that won’t be the case in 2024, which will depend in part on players emerging in their second year as a starter. As of now, the talent tiers dry up after the mid-2nd round followed by a significant drop into the third round.

The key point for Shanahan is at the two greatest positions of need, he will have attractive options in 2024. At the very least, an upgrade at right tackle seems likely. At quarterback, that will depend on how this season plays out.