49ers Offseason Preview: What I Would Do vs. What I Expect to Happen

Facing the most important offseason of the Kyle Shanahan era, the 49ers decisions will determine if they return to contention or continue to struggle.

BROCK PURDY

What I’d Do – Tennessee is debating whether to take a quarterback with the No. 1 pick or select Penn State edge rusher Abdul Carter. Make their choice easier, trade them Purdy and a pick for former All-Pro defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons, or their 2nd rounder, pick No. 35.

The Niners were interested in dealing for Simmons at the deadline. The Titans 2nd rounder is in the sweet spot of the draft loaded with impact talent. Purdy gives Tennessee a starting QB and he’d be a popular cultural fit in Nashville.

To replace Purdy, I’d make a 2nd round tender offer to Jordan Mason and then trade him to Cincinnati for Jake Browning and a 5th. Browning is a Purdy-style QB, efficient and accurate, with one year left on his contract at $1 million. He would save the Niners about $13 million in cap room over a Purdy extension. Shanahan isn’t Mason’s biggest fan and is expected to draft a back in this loaded RB class.

I’d also draft Ohio State quarterback Will Howard, a skilled QB that can make all the throws, and let him compete with Browning for the job.

The Niners limit pass attempts so the quarterback doesn’t need to be all-world. However, they also don’t invest in the offensive line significantly so a player like Purdy, markedly better when protected, isn’t optimized. Spending big on Purdy while not investing multiple high picks in the offensive line makes no sense, but it’s the likely outcome under Shanahan.

What I Expect – The Niners sign Purdy to a five-year extension of around $285 million with an out after the third season. The Yorks want him as the face of the franchise. Kyle Shanahan believes in Purdy and also doesn’t want to start over at quarterback.

If I were the Yorks, I’d make it clear to Shanahan, we’re investing this much in Purdy you need to finally make a significant draft investment in the offensive line. Unfortunately, I don’t expect that conversation to happen or for Shanahan to move off his ill-conceived offensive line philosophy.

COORDINATORS

Waiting for Saleh - I would wait as long as it takes and the Niners agree. Robert Saleh is a creative and exceptional defensive coordinator who knows the Niners vets and fills a need as an energetic leader on the sideline. He’s capable of running the Wide 9 or making scheme changes to optimize the roster. Fans are worried he’d leave in a year, but that’s the NFL, the Now Football League.

What I’d Do – If Saleh lands another job, I would ask to interview Baltimore’s Chris Hewitt. He’s the assistant head coach and passing game coordinator for the Ravens, their DB coach for a decade. Hewitt has developed All-Pros and Pro Bowlers in the secondary, helped build top-ranked defenses, and is well-versed in masking coverages, blitz packages, and simulated pressure. I like the idea of Hewitt elevating Deommodore Lenoir, Renardo Green, Malik Mustapha, and the upcoming draft picks, to the next level. Could it happen, not a chance.

What I Expect – Saleh lands the job in Jacksonville or comes back to the Bay. If he goes elsewhere, Jeff Ulbrich is the rumored backup option. Some like the idea of Dennis Allen, makes sense strategically, great defensive mind. However, he and Shanahan on the sideline would form the personality equivalent of a power outage. Don’t do that. Or Brandon Staley. Just say no.

A mandate that the DC serve as a hype man may seem enabling and over the top. That said, the players requested it of Steve Wilks and have played their best when the sideline feeds them energy.

Special Teams – It appears the Niners have asked Nick Sorensen if he wants the special teams gig. In Sorensen’s place, I don’t want to hitch my wagon to something I’m bad at, his special teams group in Jacksonville was 24th in the Gosselin rankings in 2021. I would look to move on as a DB coach elsewhere.

If Sorensen says no, the guy to hire is John Fassel, formerly of the Cowboys. His special teams groups are consistently in the league top-five and he was the top rated special teams coordinator in this year’s NFLPA poll. If Fassel can’t be had, the Niners interviewed Jett Modkins, Detroit assistant coordinator, and he’s been part of solid special teams groups, hire him.

FREE AGENCY

First, what do they have to spend? I turned to cap guru Jason Hurley of 49erscap.com. The Niners carry $63.3 million in cap room into 2025, including $5 million added to the cap in adjustments, veteran credits and unmet incentives. Add the McCaffrey extension for George Kittle and Fred Warner and the Niners save another $23.7 million in 2025. That puts them at $87 million. Javon Hargrave will be a post June 1 cut, saving another $2.3 million, but not until June 2nd.

The Niners have the $15.6 million dead cap hit from Arik Armstead. Hurley estimates the cap hit of a Purdy extension would vary by the signing bonus amount and is likely to fall between $13-$15 million. Then add these extensions: Jauan Jennings between $12-18 million, a 2nd round tender for Jordan Mason at $4.9 million, Dre Greenlaw around $14M, and Talanoa Hufanga $10-12 million. Add smaller extensions, futures contracts, and the draft, and Hurley projects the available cap room for outside signings at $30-35 million, maybe as high as $40 million.

What I’d Do: Defensive tackle Poona Ford of the Chargers as the most expensive big swing. DeMarcus Lawrence of Dallas as a run stuffing edge. Then small moves for depth.

What I Expect: The Niners bring back D.J. Jones as the run-stuffing DT and the rest are small to medium contracts for depth.

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