49ers Schedule: Projecting the Playoff Seeds

The 49ers' schedule is more difficult than last year with six long road trips including late-season travel. The team also faces no margin for error as they open the year with a light schedule and must avoid going in a hole early.

For the rest of the NFC, Philadelphia faces the most brutal stretch in the league in the middle of their season. Detroit faces a difficult start with the NFL opener at Arrowhead against the Chiefs followed by a key early matchup against Seattle.

Tiebreakers could be vital as the Niners, New Orleans, Detroit, Seattle, and Dallas may all finish in a 10-7 to 12-5 window.

49ers
The Niners need to open 4-0, any early loss may knock them down to a No. 5 seed or lower. An early Thursday night game against the Giants could lead to injuries that hurt the team for the critical Sunday night matchup against Dallas. The winner of that game will own a key tiebreaker. The Niners will need a healthy George Kittle and his penchant for big games in prime time to win the biggest game of the first half of the year in Week 5.

The next three games are dangerous, particularly if the games against the Giants and Cowboys lead to injury trouble. A long trip to Cleveland, return home, and out to Minnesota for a Monday Night game. Then back home on a short week to play Cincinnati. The bye then falls at a needed time to recover.

Another long trip to Jacksonville, but making it tougher, a 10 AM start time, which typically proves difficult for teams coming out from the west coast. Could be a reel-in game where the Niners come on in the second half to win it.

Tampa to recover then the three games that will define the regular season. Thanksgiving in Seattle, the next week in Philly, then back home for the Seattle rematch. Injuries may be a concern coming out of those three games.

The Niners closed the season well in last year’s final stretch, but every game was within a time zone. This year, a trip across the country to Washington in Week 17 carries another high injury risk.

Wrap up at home against the Rams but the NFC records are likely to be so tight that the Niners will not be able to rest starters.

Predicted Record: 12-5, No. 2 seed. Losing to Cleveland, another 10 AM start game, Cincinnati on short rest, in Seattle for Thanksgiving, Philadelphia in the rematch, and Baltimore on Christmas night. The danger is the Niners record could easily drop to 10-7, there is no margin for error, and the injury risk with the long travel and short rest is high.

1. Philadelphia 13-4
The Eagles should have the league’s best record at their week 10 bye. Then the ultimate five-game gauntlet: at Kansas City, Buffalo, the 49ers, at Dallas Sunday night, and at Seattle in consecutive weeks. The injury risk of that brutal stretch against the best in the league is high, particularly when it ends with the long trip to Seattle. If they beat the Niners, Philly will have the tiebreaker for the No. 1 seed and can afford to drop to 12-5.

3. New Orleans 11-6
On talent, the Saints aren’t a consideration for a high seed, but the schedule is Our Lady of Cupcake fluffy. Their toughest opponents are Jacksonville, Minnesota, and Detroit, and only the Vikings game is on the road. Provided the Saints don't play down to their competition, they could unexpectedly walk into the No. 2 or 3 seed in the NFC.

4. Detroit 10-7
The Lions have to be ready early, opening against the champion Chiefs and then a crucial tiebreaker game with Seattle at home in a 10 AM game. Week 12 at New Orleans will be big and they close with at Minnesota, at Dallas, and Minnesota.

5. Seattle 10-7
31,000 road air miles, good thing the Seahawks are young. The Thanksgiving game at home against the Niners kicks off their toughest stretch of games with Niners, at Dallas, at Niners, Philadelphia. Ouch. If the Niners drop to 11-6 or 10-7 and finish tied with Seattle, then the common opponent games with the Seahawks probably break the tie, the Dallas and Philly games will be key.

6. Dallas 10-7
The Cowboys have upgraded but their schedule is tough with an improved division, and games against the Niners, Seattle, Buffalo, Miami, and the Chargers.

7. Minnesota 9-8
The Vikings edge out New York for the final playoff spot.

Playoff tiebreakers
1. Head-to-Head.
2. Winning percentage in the division.
3. Winning percentage vs. common opponents.
4. Winning percentage in the conference.
5. Strength of victory in all games.

The key 49er games for tiebreakers:
Week 5 vs. Dallas – To beat the Cowboys head-to-head and keep pace with the Seahawks on common opponents.
Week 7 vs. Minnesota and Week 10 vs. Jacksonville - In the common opponent tiebreaker with the Saints.

Way too early playoffs:

7 Minnesota at 2 San Francisco
6 Dallas at 3 New Orleans
5 Seattle at 4 Detroit

6 Dallas at 1 Philadelphia
4 Detroit at 2 San Francisco

2 San Francisco at 1 Philadelphia

Super Bowl Philadelphia over Cincinnati (AFC No. 1 seed, easier schedule than Buffalo or Kansas City).