Assessing the 49ers' chances to make the playoffs this season

Can they do it?

San Francisco 49ers quarterback Mac Jones (10) looks to throw a pass during a week 9 game between New York Giants and San Francisco 49ers at MetLife Stadium on Sunday, Nov. 2, 2025. | Julian Leshay Guadalupe/NorthJersey.com / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The 49ers have had a roller-coaster of a season so far.

There have been numerous injuries to key players, including Brock Purdy, Fred Warner, and Nick Bosa, as well as tough battles against decent teams, and a backup quarterback for most of the season.

However, through it all, this team has consistently been one of the top teams in the NFL. The Niners currently sit with a record of 6-3, being one of the higher record teams in the NFC. With all of that turmoil, the Red and Gold are still positioned to be a playoff team, but can they do it?

Julian Leshay Guadalupe/NorthJersey.com / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Recently, The Athletic released its 2025 NFL Playoff Simulator. This Simulator can give you countless different odds, such as winning division percentage, 1st round bye Week percentage, and making the playoffs percentage.

According to this simulator, the Niners are projected to end at a 10-7 record, sitting at the 7-seed. That, for what this season has been, would be amazing. It gives the 49ers 81% to make the playoffs, 17% to win the division, 5% to get a 1st round bye, and 19% to miss the playoffs.

This clearly shows the great potential the 49ers have to make the playoffs, but there is a caveat. Some of the teams that they will play in the coming weeks are fighting for the Niners' spot. The Bears and Panthers are both projected to be the 8 & 9 seeds, missing the playoffs just behind the Niners. Those two games will be must-wins.

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If the 49ers manage to win these two games, their odds shoot up to 95%. However, if they lose to the Panthers, their odds drop to 64%, and lose to the Bears, it's at 65%, but if they manage to lose to both teams, their odds drop to 40%. Add that to what easily could be a loss to the Rams or Seahawks, and their odds drop all the way down to 30-21%.

This puts the Niners in a tough situation. They have had one of, if not the easiest, schedules in all of the NFL this season. Now the pressure is on them to win those easy games. Any losses to bad teams or teams in the hunt could mean the end of their playoff hopes, and those teams in the hunt will be circling their matchups with the Red and Gold. It is now must-win time for the Niners.