Assessing the 49ers' Super Bowl chances after losing to the Rams

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Through ten games, it is easy to divide the San Francisco 49ers' season into two. The team lost Nick Bosa in Week 4 and Fred Warner shortly after in Week 6.

So, there is the first five games of the season, during which the defense was relatively healthy, and then there has been the five weeks since then without Bosa and Warner. Over that time, the 49ers went from contenders to pretenders.

The San Francisco 49ers are not good enough to compete for a Super Bowl

In the first five games of the season, the 49ers were 4-1, and in the last five, they are 2-3. The offense is relatively the same; the issue has come down to the defense. In the first five games, the defense was allowing 19.6 points per game. In the past five that has shot up to 26.2. They are allowing a touchdown per game more in the last five weeks. The offense was able to win at its current rate, but could not overcome that difference. 

According to RBSDM.com, their EPA per play also jumped from 0.007 to .191. That is the difference between 14th in the NFL and 30th in the NFL. Their success rate allowed jump from 47.2 to 51.4. The defense is worth it in both areas.

Against the pass, their success rate allowed went from 50% to 53.6%. Even worse, their EPA went from .124 to .315. On the ground, the success rate went from 42.7% to 48%. The EPA per play is still awful, but it went from -.178 to -.004. They went from great against the run to slightly below average in this area. 

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The team was aided a bit by playing the New Orleans Saints early, and Arizona has proven to be pretender. Still, the Houston Texans' offense was not firing on all cylinders before they put up 26 on San Francisco, and a good performance against Atlanta is mixed in as well. 

The 49ers declined to make a move at the trade deadline. This is the roster that they are going to make a playoff push with. It is hard to see the talent that can overcome the type of losses that they suffered on that side of the football. 

When people see the 6-4 they may think this is a team that can put something together. However, if you just examine the last five, they will have to survive just to make the playoffs despite their head start.