Game Preview: 49ers at Jacksonville Jaguars

The 49ers travel to Jacksonville as three-point favorites in a game that may prove fateful in determining if San Francisco wins the division or drops to a wild card team.

After losing three straight the Niners face a near must-win game that sets the tone for the second half of the season. A win and they are on the path for 11-6 and an NFC West title, a loss and they could end the season 10-7 as a wild card team with the six or seven seed.

Trent Williams has had difficulty recovering from a sprained ankle and is a game-time decision. Even if he does play, he’ll be limited, and that can limit the 49ers rushing game and turn the offense one-dimensional.

WHEN JACKSONVILLE HAS THE BALL

Trevor Lawrence leads a short to intermediate passing attack, focused on getting the ball out quickly to negate the pass rush. Tight end Evan Engram is the top target playing outside far more than inside. Running back Travis Etienne Jr. is a dual threat. The Jags have split Etienne out wide and used him in the slot this year.

The Jaguars will go hunting for Etienne in the slot against Isaiah Oliver, and that speed mismatch could be carnage for the Niners. Moving Deommodore Lenoir inside could be necessary.

With the Niners investing so heavily in the defensive line and not coming up with sacks, and Lawrence being the league’s best against zone coverage, the 49ers may choose to go with press-man coverage throughout.

Jacksonville’s offensive line is vulnerable, though they dealt for Minnesota’s Ezra Cleveland at the deadline. The Vikings did an excellent job of denying the 49ers pass rush a few weeks ago.

With the Niners in press-man, Lawrence will have an opportunity to test the secondary deep with receivers Christian Kirk and Calvin Ridley. The Niners have to choose, press- man to help the pass rush or zone to stop the big play. They’ll be helped by both Lawrence and his receivers being inconsistent deep.

Jacksonville is ineffective in 3rd down conversions, ranking 27th in the league, they also struggle to score touchdowns in the red zone. Etienne is 6th in the league in rushing at 583 yards, but he only averages 3.9 yards per carry with seven touchdowns and a long of 35. He has their longest reception of the year at 56 yards.

Lawrence has thrown for 100 fewer yards than Brock Purdy, he completes 68.3% of his passes but only has nine touchdowns and four picks. He’s a scrambling threat with over 200 yards rushing at over five yards a carry. The Niners will need to maintain rush lanes on 3rd or Lawrence can run for the first consistently.

The Jaguars need to succeed in the early downs to move the chains, going through Etienne and Engram, who both have nearly 300 yards after the catch. The Niners' goal is to earn the opportunity through the early downs to rush Lawrence on 3rd and long. Quick tackles to deny Etienne and Engram YAC will be key.

WHEN THE NINERS HAVE THE BALL

Jacksonville prefers to play zone coverage, creating an opportunity for Brock Purdy to go to his anticipatory passing game. Then it’s Purdy and the Niners receivers against the Jags ball-hawking secondary jumping routes. The Jaguars are tied with the Niners for second in the league in interceptions, even though both teams struggle to create sacks.

The Niners and Jags rank near each other in pressures, hurries, and quarterback hits.

Jacksonville has the league’s 4th ranked run defense giving up 3.6 yards per carry. Their defense is led by linebacker Foye Oluokon, who has led the league in tackles over the last two years. He and Devin Lloyd and the Warner and Greenlaw of the Jags defense, they're quick to fill lanes and outside pursuit to the ball.

Given the Jags rushing defense, and the Niners either without Trent Williams or a gimpy version, the 49ers will likely struggle to run the ball.

As he did in San Francisco, Jaguars general manager Trent Baalke has emphasized speed on defense. Jacksonville plays cohesively, executing roles and swarming to the ball.

Over the bye week, I expect that Kyle Shanahan has been working on counters to what has stopped his offense, particularly five-man fronts.

With Jacksonville’s penchant for slow starts, the Niners should take an early lead, but it will be difficult to protect without being able to run effectively.

STAT OF THE GAME

Etienne’s total yards from scrimmage. If he has a solid day they’ll move the chains, break off some chunk plays, and control the game. If Etienne draws Oliver in coverage it can get ugly.

PREDICTION (MY RECORD 6-2)

The Niners should bring urgency to this game after losing three straight. Purdy will face zone coverage but the running game will likely struggle. So I can see the Niners moving the ball in the passing game, but more pass attempts against one of the best ball-hawking secondaries carries a lot of risk. Purdy will have to be cautious, and that may lead to field goals and not touchdowns on some drives.

For Jacksonville’s offense, they can have problems on 3rd and long, so they need to succeed in the early downs and should with Etienne and Engram. If the Niners play press-man as expected, and possibly bench Oliver and move Lenoir inside, then they can be beaten deep and that creates an opportunity for the Jags receivers. The Niners' secondary problems are tied to personnel, not scheme or the location of the defensive coordinator.

I think this game will ultimately be decided on defense even though it’s high scoring. Jacksonville will stop the Niners' running game and generate a pick. The 49ers defense will struggle to stop Etienne as a receiver, and will probably give up a deep score. That’s enough to decide it.

Jaguars 27 49ers 20