Game Preview: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 49ers

Coming off an impressive rout over Jacksonville, the challenge for the 49ers is to maintain their focus while favored by 12 at home against Tampa Bay. Kyle Shanahan has said keeping the team focused is his job this week and Fred Warner says the team now realizes the need to play a game at a time.

This game is a test of whether the Niners can keep the light switch on.

WHEN TAMPA BAY HAS THE BALL

The Bucs depend heavily on their passing game, which is three-quarters of their yardage. Baker Mayfield has been hot lately throwing seven touchdowns and two interceptions in his last four games with a passer rating above 96.

Mayfield throws primarily to four targets, receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, running back Rachaad White, and tight end Cade Otton. The running game is anemic with White only averaging 3.3 yards per carry with a long of just 16 yards.

Evans has a mismatch edge, he can beat Ambry Thomas deep or draw penalties, and has a size advantage over Deommodore Lenoir and Charvarius Ward. Evans had his first game of the season over 100 yards last week with six catches for 143 yards and a touchdown. He caught six first downs, he’ll need to be the focus of Niner coverage on 3rd down.

If 49ers defensive coordinator Steve Wilks calls press-man coverage he’s betting on the defensive line getting home, but Mayfield has only been sacked on 5% of his dropbacks. If Wilks chooses safety help on Evans, then the short passing game is open. This is a week where Wilks getting creative on the blitz and deploying five-man lines could be key to getting off the field.

WHEN THE NINERS HAVE THE BALL

Tampa’s defense anchored by Pro Bowl defensive tackle Vita Vea ranks 4th in the league in rushing giving up 3.7 yards per carry and 87.2 yards per game. With Trent Williams saying his ankle is much healthier this week, the Niners will look to run Christian McCaffrey wide behind him.

In the passing game, the Bucs prefer to play man, but may not have right cornerback Carlton Davis III, who’s questionable with a toe injury. Brandon Aiyuk should win his matchup frequently.

The Bucs rely on their safeties to make plays but they’ll be occupied by George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey. Shanahan will look to set up the 49ers weapons in space as the Buccaneers rank 27th in YAC allowed, giving up nearly 140 yards per game.

Tampa blitzes frequently, they’re 3rd in the league at 37.9%. Vea is the Bucs leading pass rusher with 4.5 sacks and they’ll move him across the line looking for mismatches. Shaq Barrett is their primary outside rusher with four sacks.

The Buccaneers are the league’s best red zone defense at preventing touchdowns, with Vea and the linebackers making it difficult to run. Brock Purdy should move the ball consistently on this defense while being mindful of the blitz and going to check down targets.

PREDICTION (MY RECORD 6-3)

I completely shanked my prediction last week and underestimated the Niners' resolve. That win would be rendered meaningless with a letdown against Tampa, and the team knows it. I expect a focused and ready Niner team to jump out to an early lead with a script looking more like the first five wins.

The 49ers would be helped by an easy win to get starters rest in the 4th headed into a short week with the Thanksgiving night game in Seattle.

The game plan should be vintage Shanahan, outside runs, and setting up the weapons in the short passing game against a Tampa defense vulnerable against YAC. Purdy should have a steady diet of short to Deebo, McCaffrey, and Kittle and intermediate to Aiyuk, who should have a productive day, particularly if Davis is out.

The Niners will need YAC in the red zone, where Tampa is the league’s best. Purdy will need to draw a balance between aggressive playmaking and protecting the ball. With Tampa’s defensive success inside the 20, that will probably lead to multiple opportunities for Jake Moody.

On defense, it’s about containing Mayfield and Evans, who are coming off their best game of the year as a tandem. Wilks faces a pick-your-poison choice on who plays corner and nickel. Evans will get his, I expect Wilks will give safety help on 3rd.

The Niners need to build momentum off the Jacksonville game, refining execution and staying healthy entering the most important stretch of the year, playing Seattle, Philadelphia, and Seattle in their next three games.

49ers 30 Buccaneers 17