How Trey Lance's Tenure With the 49ers Will Play out

Lance is no longer protected by the heavy investment and draft status that the 49ers made in him, which potentially foreshadows how his tenure with the 49ers will play out.

The plan at quarterback is set for the San Francisco 49ers.

Brock Purdy is the starter despite being on the mend from UCL surgery. Until then, the 49ers will be deciding the next four to five months between Trey Lance and Sam Darnold. When OTAs commence, they will have Lance and Darnold battle for the starting role all the way through training camp. 

A pretty cut and dry plan I would say, but it gets interesting regarding the perspective of the 49ers. Albert Breer of The MMQB dropped an interesting note regarding Lance as he gets set to battle as the quarterback placeholder.

"They’re hoping Lance will turn a corner, but with the roster they have, and the presence of Purdy, they can no longer sacrifice in-season reps to facilitate his development—as they’d planned last year. Meanwhile, there’s some hope that Darnold, seen as a strong system fit, could turn a corner," said Breer.

This sounds like the 49ers are indifferent with Lance. If he is good and can win the starting job -- great. If he falters and/or can't stay healthy, then oh well because they still have Purdy returning and Darnold who can act as the placeholder for now. Lance is no longer protected by the heavy investment and draft status that the 49ers made in him, which potentially foreshadows how his tenure with the 49ers will play out.

With the way things stand, Lance is bound to be traded. It won't happen anytime soon as the 49ers would be incompetent to let him go already without giving him one last look. Plus, his value is no better than a Day 2 draft pick, and that is a major stretch. The earliest I could foresee is close to the trade deadline in 2023, but I bet it occurs after the season. Lance is bound to be traded because of the uphill battle staring him dead in the face. He is essentially setup to lose beause he is still a developing player. 

Lance is battling to essentially be the backup against a seasoned veteran in Darnold, while trying to get back up to speed from his injury along with maintaining his health. Then, he has to actually prove himself in a slew of regular season games in efficient, but most importantly, winning fashion. That is a lot to ask for a guy who is still developing coming off a severe injury. It makes it more likely than not that Lance will fail to regain his starting spot back given the plethora of obstacles in his way. 

Given what is in front of him and how indifferent the 49ers are about it, the arrow is pointing towards him exiting sooner rather than later. Of course, it isn't impossible for him to look solid from now through training camp. That is step one for him to accomplish as well as two other things he needs to do in order to solidify himself as the indefinite starter over Purdy. And if he does leapfrog Purdy, then he will have done so in a special way given all the adversity and challenges he had to overcome.

I'm just not confident he will be able to do it. Maybe if he was able to get some more games under his belt the last two seasons, then he could have seen sooner what he needs to improve on and what he excels at. But it just feels like the 49ers coaches and core players are all in on Purdy, which is another factor against him. So much is against Lance that it looks overwhelming. It almost feels inevitable that he will he find himself on another team within the next two years.