Prediction: Trey Lance Stays, 49ers History Repeats Itself

Before the draft, the NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reported that Trey Lance could be dealt by the draft or by August, and that Sam Darnold would be the Week 1 starter. Now Rapoport says he got pushback from the Niners on all that and Lance is competing to start.

Most 49ers fans are heavily invested in Lance, to not be dealt, to get a chance to start, and they believe with that chance, Lance can earn the long term QB1 job. Let’s go through each one.

To not be dealt
A Lance trade was theoretically possible before or during the draft. After it, to quote from the “Oppenheimer” trailer, the chances are near zero.

Teams have their quarterbacks, don’t want to add a new one after OTAs, and don’t want to cut one to make room for the new guy. Therefore, they offer a half-eaten bag of Doritos in trade. In the last three years, a conditional fourth, a fifth, or a near-empty bag have been the post-draft quarterback trades. The Niners aren’t taking that for Lance.

If a quarterback gets injured what then? Then teams still don’t offer what the Niners want for Lance and they offer Darnold instead.

Could the sudden reversal on Trey be part of a “pump and dump” strategy by the Niners to jettison Lance? Maybe. But if so, it has no chance of working. What team is giving the Niners a 2nd round pick for Trey Lance after the draft? Not near zero. Zero.

Well maybe if he starts and proves his worth then? He’d have to play lights out, but if he does the Niners are better off keeping him. There is no reasonable scenario where Lance elevates his play to be worth a second-round pick and then the Niners deal him. So he stays. Through the end of his contract. Then he walks in free agency and the Niners cash him in for a comp 5th or 6th.

To get a chance to start
This depends on Brock Purdy’s recovery. The Niners will be eager to get Purdy on the field asap. Which is part of why the Niners are one of the ten most injured teams in the league every year.

Point is, as soon as Purdy is healthy and proven his arm is fine and he’s in game shape he sees the field. Until then, it’s reasonable to expect that Lance beats out Darnold for QB2. If Lance doesn’t, the Faithful that have been investing so much in Lance will need to recalibrate their hopes and expectations.

To become QB1
Under this scenario, Lance plays well when he’s given the opportunity and plays his way to QB1 and keeps the job. Sounds optimistic to me. The Niners have opened the season 3-4 and 3-5 the last two seasons and have a transition at quarterback, right tackle, and on defense with a new coordinator. Lance goes undefeated given that? A tall order.

So then what?
Lance starts to begin the season, and it's reasonable to project he plays well but not well enough to go undefeated. Purdy steps in when he’s healthy.

Then Lance sits, his market value tanks, the Niners have no shot of getting what they want and they hang on to Trey until his contract is up. History repeats. Ironic that Garoppolo and Lance would exit the team the same way.

Is it therefore worth it to get this worked up about Lance? Nope. I don’t think the Niners have given him a fair shot, I expect they’ll rush Purdy on to the field recklessly, and they’ll kick the can on a Lance trade hoping for an offer that never comes. Then Lance will walk and finally get an opportunity to show what he can do for another team.

All this hope about Lance on the Niners as QB1? I’m not seeing it. Purdy won playoff games and the team put up over 30 points a game, they’ll want him back on the field. Purdy will return and Lance will sit. There is no happy ending for Lance in Santa Clara.

I’m pro-Lance, I want what’s best for him. I’m confident he will succeed once he’s given sufficient game reps. That won’t happen in Santa Clara. In my view, Lance’s best chance to succeed is by leaving the 49ers.

He won’t be traded, he’ll just be let go for a comp pick. A common 49ers fate. An uncommon and unfortunate circumstance, though. The stories will then be written on the worst trade in NFL history and it will be placed at the feet of Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch.

So, the race for history is on. Shanahan and Lynch need to win a championship before Lance walks at the end of his contract. I have the Niners winning a ring in 2024. Just in time.