Game Preview: 49ers at Minnesota Vikings

Coming off their first loss of the season, the 49ers will be short-handed on Monday night against Minnesota. Deebo Samuel has a hairline fracture in his shoulder and will miss at least the next two games. Trent Williams hasn’t practiced this week because of a sore ankle and is listed as doubtful.

Christian McCaffrey and Dre Greenlaw are coming off injuries, both are listed as questionable but practiced on Saturday, which leans toward them playing against the Vikings.

It would be risky for Williams to play with a bad ankle on this surface. NFL Players Association President J.C. Tretter has called for slit-film turf to be banned. The turf is notorious for causing non-contact and lower-body injuries. The Niners had five players hurt on this type of turf when they faced the New York Jets at MetLife Stadium in 2020, including a season-ending injury to Nick Bosa.

This game on slit-film turf may be the highest injury risk the Niners will face all year. They have one more regular season game on turf at Seattle on Thanksgiving night.

WHEN MINNESOTA HAS THE BALL
The Vikings scored 19 points against Chicago last week without All-Pro wide receiver Justin Jefferson. Kirk Cousins threw for only 181 yards, focusing on tight end T.J. Hockenson, who had six catches for 50 yards. The running game was anemic with Alexander Mattison running 18 times for just 44 yards. Minnesota put up 19 points thanks to three Bears turnovers.

On defense, the Niners have opened games by preventing the big play deep. In this game, they may not need to as the Vikings' longest pass play last week was a 21-yard gain for Hockenson. If the Niners bring the safeties closer to the line of scrimmage and play press-man coverage on the receivers, they may be able to shut down Cousins and the Minnesota offense.

Key matchup
T.J. Hockenson vs. Fred Warner – Cousins has the accuracy to get the ball to Hockenson in tight coverage and will look to challenge Warner, as well as Isaiah Oliver.

WHEN THE NINERS HAVE THE BALL
The likely loss of Williams will make the Niners running game less effective and pass protection far more vulnerable. Backup Jaylon Moore allowed two sacks on 184 snaps last year, Williams allowed one in 871 and hasn’t given up a sack this year. Moore goes up against the NFL sack leader Danielle Hunter.

The Niners running game prefers to go left behind the power and speed of Williams, Moore is more of a hybrid tackle/guard.

After his worst game as a pro facing the historically great Cleveland defense, the rain, and the wind, Brock Purdy goes indoors and avoids all of that. He can return to the anticipatory passing game but without Samuel and Williams.

Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores loves to blitz. His defense blitzes on 57.9% of dropbacks, the NFL leader well ahead of New England in 2nd at 43.4%. Purdy showed against the Giants that he can make the reads and quick throws to beat the blitz.

The question is if Flores will need to blitz if Hunter beats Moore consistently. Purdy’s escapability will be put to the test. Look for Kyle Shanahan to use McCaffrey more in the short passing game than he has in recent weeks. Jauan Jennings and Ronnie Bell will get more opportunities.

Key matchup
Jaylon Moore vs. Danielle Hunter – Hunter lines up left on the clear majority of his snaps. Shanahan will need to give Moore chip help, double teams, and pass-pro support from the backs. Running at Hunter won’t be as effective with Moore instead of Williams.

STAT OF THE GAME
Small picture, Purdy’s completion percentage against the blitz and pressure. He’ll need to get the ball out quickly and avoid turnovers. Big picture, injuries. Will this suspect surface claim more Niners?

PREDICTION (My record 5-1)
The drop from perennial All-Pro Trent Williams to backup Jaylon Moore is the steepest of any position on the team. Moore faces baptism by fire against sack leader Hunter.

Purdy’s time to throw will be a question all game long. He’ll have to get the ball out very quickly, which suggests a horizontal passing game and timing routes. Fortunately, this week in a dome there’s no weather to disrupt that.

Without Williams, the running game could sputter. Shanahan can address that by leaning on a short passing attack, but the lack of balance could create more third and long passing situations - which puts the tackles at greater risk.

On defense, Cousins’ accuracy is a concern, but Minnesota not having Jefferson should allow the Niners to be more aggressive in their coverage schemes.

Provided the Niners can counter the Vikings pass rush and frequent blitzing they should win this relatively easily, and the defense should control the game.

Niners 27 Vikings 13