Projecting a Jauan Jennings Extension with 49ers Before Free Agency

The 49ers have to be smart.

Eric Hartline-Imagn Images

The San Francisco 49ers have a tough decision to make when it comes to Jauan Jennings and his contract. The two tried to work out a deal this offseason but only came up with a revised salary for the one season. Now, he is set to hit free agency.

What contract will Jauan Jennings get in free agency?

Some recent projections have Jennings set to get as much as $22M per year. This would be great for Jennings, whose salary is just under $5M and was projected to get closer to $13M this offseason. However, that is just one projection and may not be what he actually receives. What would a fair contract look like for Jennings?

Below is a comparison of Jennings stats to other receivers in the $22M per year range. When you just look at his last two years, which is when Jennings has broken out, he is in the conversation with them.

Name	Age	AAV	Catches	Yards	TDS
Jauan Jennings	28	?	132	1618	15
*Calvin Ridley	31	$23	81	1320	4
Michael Pittman	28	$23.3	149	1592	10
Davante Adams	33	$22	145	1852	22
Courtland Sutton	30	$23	155	2098	15
*Chris Godwin	29	$22	83	936	7

However, the only receivers he has more catches than are Godwin and Ridley and they missed sigificant time with injuires over this span. His stats are very similar to Michael Pittman, and that is likely what his agent will show teams.

Still, most of these names signed the deals that they did because they have a longer track record. Jennings only has two strong seasons out of his five. When compared to these other receivers past five years, he is nowhere close.

Name	Catches	Yards	TDs
Jauan Jennings	210	2581	22
Calvin Ridley	188	2617	14
Michael Pittman	445	4751	24
Davante Adams	471	6065	55
Courtland Sutton	336	4475	29
Chris Godwin	368	4086	17

Ridley nearly missed two full seasons and his stats are tight with Jennings. Pittman has over 2,000 more yards when we zoom out to a larger sample. They are the same age and even if the past two years are close, Pittman has an edge and has a much longer track record. Is this too high to aim for Jennings?

A more realistic salary for Jauan Jennings

If we move just one tier down the salary cap hits for wide receivers, we see a group that maybe more in line with Jennings. Jerry Jeudy, Khalil Shakir, Christian Watson, Jakobi Meyers, and Darnell Mooney all signed deals in recent years and are closer to Jennings in production.

Name	Age	AAV	Catches	Yards	TDs
Jauan Jennings	28	?	132	1618	15
Jerry Jeudy	26	$17.5	140	1831	6
Khalil Shakir	25	$13.25	148	1540	8
Christian Watson	26	$11	64	1231	8
Jakobi Meyers	29	$20	162	1862	7
Darnell Mooney	28	$13M	96	1435	6

Jennings has a lot more touchdowns than these names, but the rest of the production looks close. More than that, Jennings is older than a lot of these players, so he cannot make the youth claim like he can when comparing him to Davante Adams.

Even more, when you expand the sample a bit more, it gets even more clear that this is his group.

Name	Catches	Yards	TDs
Jauan Jennings	186	2299	17
Jerry Jeudy	261	3561	14
Khalil Shakir	197	2312	11
Christian Watson	133	2264	20
Jakobi Meyers	300	3473	21
Darnell Mooney	167	2342	9

Jennings is still not quite as productive as some, but it is not as overwhelming as the other receivers. The issuse is that these recevers ranged from $13-$20M in salary.

Still, it is hard see him get more than Meyers, who joined a new team in the middle of the year, produced more than Jennings this year and has a better track record.

Something in the $17-$18M range may be better. It is more than a lot of his peers who signed before him but not more than players with much stronger track records. This is still a strong increase for Jennings, so would that get the job done? The 49ers should not offer more than $18M per year, and if Jennings does want $22M, he may have to wait for a free agency bidding war to get it.