Sorting Out The 49ers Present and Future at Quarterback

Kyle Shanahan called Brock Purdy “the real deal” the other day and I’m left wondering why now? There was nothing from practice to prompt a statement like that. Shanahan has made clear through reps that Purdy is the starter. So why?

My take is Shanahan wanted to infuse Purdy with confidence, trying to kickstart a return to last year’s self-assured playmaking.

I wonder if Shanahan is looking at the camp performance across the board at quarterback with concern. He’s hoping to catch lightning in a bottle with Purdy again. So he tries to will it into being with “the real deal” comment.

The quarterback play in camp has been good but rarely great, and that’s a problem for a team with Super Bowl aspirations this year. Which brings it back to Shanahan. Does he truly see Purdy as the franchise or a rental? With Kirk Cousins available next year, I’d put my money on a rental.

Brock Purdy
He proved himself last year with seven straight wins and two playoff victories. The problem being Jimmy Garoppolo also had a great record and playoff wins but no rings. Learning from history, can Shanahan trust Purdy to lead the Niners to a championship with weak pass protection on the right side?

Purdy is what Shanahan wants most, an avatar executing his offense. Purdy was electric in his rookie year and brings a critical asset – the risk-taking and accuracy to score touchdowns in the red zone.

However, Purdy comes with inherent physical limitations, he lacks the arm strength to drive deep sideline passes, and being under 6-1 his instinct is to not step up in the pocket. Purdy is the processing avatar, but he can’t make every throw needed.

Kirk Cousins
Which leads to Cousins. The full trust and confidence of Shanahan, the ability to make every throw. The limitations of an offense are defined by the quarterback. Cousins gives Shanahan not just what he wants but what he needs. The ability to optimize the league’s best set of offensive weapons with Brandon Aiyuk about to hit his peak, Deebo Samuel back in 2021 shape, George Kittle healthy, and defenses preoccupied with Christian McCaffrey. The weapons will still be primed in 2024.

Cousins will have suitors though, New England will have over $80 million in cap room. The Niners can create room via contract restructuring to give Cousins market value and the only contending team. After Cousins, free agency dries up quickly with Ryan Tannehill, Jacoby Brissett, and Tyler Huntley.

Another positive with Cousins. To persuade Cousins to sign, Shanahan will finally have to address the right side of the offensive line in pass protection. He won't have a choice.

Shanahan and Cousins seem like an inevitable pairing at the moment, but Purdy can change that with his play. Brock is on the clock though. Deliver or Purdy’s looking at a future as a backup.

Cousins checks all the boxes for Shanahan, but signing him in free agency will be difficult given the extensive cap room of quarterback-needy teams in New England and Tennessee.

Trey Lance
A Purdy injury is the only way Lance becomes a starter at this point. But that’s unfortunately all too possible given the pass-rushing talent the Niners face in the first five weeks.

Sam Darnold getting the call instead is possible, but Shanahan has a strong preference for quarterbacks that know his system fully.

Lance getting and then keeping the starting job is a steep climb as he would have to win at a high percentage and then take the Niners to a championship. Otherwise, a return to Purdy, or more likely a Cousins signing, addresses the starting job.

The question is then what about trading Lance by the deadline? Seems unlikely given the recent injury history at quarterback, as well as the meager return of a post-draft trade. The league also lacks a shrewd Bill Walsh type willing to take a risk on Trey, even for pennies on the dollar.

A pre-draft trade in 2024 is the most plausible scenario, provided Lance has an opportunity to play in 2023 and prove himself. At that point, the Niners can get the highest trade value they're likely to receive. In addition, if they sign Cousins and draft new starters on the right side of the line, Shanahan may be more confident in the Niners' title chances and therefore more willing to let Lance go.