The 49ers have a high ceiling, but how low is their floor?

It's lower than you might think.

Aug 9, 2025; Santa Clara, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan watches from the sidelines in the first quarter against the Denver Broncos at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: David Gonzales-Imagn Images | David Gonzales-Imagn Images

Every beat reporter for ESPN went through their team's win-loss record to project a potential ceiling and floor outcome for each team. For the San Francisco 49ers, Nick Wagoner put their ceiling at 12-5 and their floor at 7-10. 

Can the many young players the 49ers are counting on take a step forward and produce quickly? The Niners said goodbye to nearly 20 players via free agency, release or trade, and they didn't spend much on signing outside players to fill those gaps. Instead, the Niners are counting on an 11-player draft class and plenty of other young veterans to become full-time starters or key reserves. San Francisco is banking on star-level production from its elite players, but it could easily have as many as seven first- or second-year players starting on defense. The Niners will need at least some of those guys to make a big leap in order to return to contender status.

Nick Wagoner

San Francisco 49ers floor is lower than some think

The reasoning makes sense, and the ceiling is certainly about right. As noted, the youth movement will decide how far they go, but with Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, Trent Williams, George Kittle, Fred Warner, and Nick Bosa all on one roster, they can raise the ceiling of any roster. 

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If those six all perform like many expect and some young players take steps, the team is moving into the next era with a chance to win the one seed. However, while the ceiling is that high, the question is whether the floor is lower. 

The analysis seems to assume health at some of the key positions. This is more about looking into how low the team could sink if some of their young players do what young players do. However, the 49ers' biggest issue may be their depth, and while their six best players can carry them into the playoffs, they are overly reliant on these studs. 

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The defense could go from contending to one of the worst simply by removing just one of Bosa or Warner. We have seen the pass rush flatten when Bosa is gone and Warner does all of the communication. 

The 49ers went 1-6 without Trent Williams last year, and their left tackle situation appears to be worse. We have seen the difference Christian McCaffrey brings to an offense and how he can immediately change the confidence that Kyle Shanahan has as a playcaller. George Kittle impacts the run and the pass as much as anyone, and of course, no one can live without their top quarterback. 

It is easy to say that for every team that the floor gets low if one of their best players gets injured, but the 49ers, the sentiment seems more true this year than most. Some teams can at least limp and compete, but the 49ers simply could not afford to lose any of those players. Shanahan has won six games three times and four games once as the 49ers head coach, showing that he cannot raise the floor when his roster is not capable. 

The 49ers' ceiling is Super Bowl, but their floor may still be lower than just seven wins. Four or five wins is on the table with just one of their top six going down.