The 49ers Subtle Improvements and the Path Ahead

The 5-0 Niners have elevated their play this year through a few subtle but important developments. Growth in leadership, Brock Purdy's play, the combination of Christian McCaffrey and Brandon Aiyuk, and a physical, smart defense have paved the way.

MINDSET

Recognizing the importance of the number one seed, the Niners entered the year with a focus they haven’t shown early in the season since 2019.

The coaching staff and team leaders will be tested this week after an emotional blowout over the Cowboys, playing a Cleveland team without Nick Chubb and possibly Deshaun Watson in a 10 a.m. start.

BROCK PURDY

The expectation going into the season was that Purdy might be limited coming off elbow surgery, but he has improved steadily. Purdy leads the league in efficiency both inside and outside the numbers. His air yards per completion have jumped 22% to 7.3 and his completion percentage is up from 67% to 72%, ranking 2nd in the league.

Purdy has excelled at throwing with anticipation before the receiver makes his break, he’s top-three in the least amount of time before the pass. According to Pro Football Focus, against Dallas, Purdy got the ball out at an average of 2.26 seconds, the Cowboys pass rush didn’t have enough time to sack him.

Another key change from last year is Purdy is more effective when pressured. In last year’s playoff game against Dallas, Purdy completed 33% of his passes against pressure. In this year’s game, 57%. Purdy is now comfortable stepping up in the pocket and moving right, as he did on the first touchdown in the Dallas game to George Kittle.

Purdy is the only quarterback in the league with a positive EPA (expected points added) per play into tight coverage at 0.3. Compared to former Niner Jimmy Garoppolo, who is among the league’s worst near -0.6.

Purdy’s ability to improvise out of pressure and throw with anticipation, combined with his willingness to go further down the field with success against tight coverage, are key reasons why the 49ers offense has improved compared to Garoppolo. This applies to consistent drives that avoid third down and greater success in the red zone.

SHIFT IN PASS RUSH PHILOSOPHY

In recent years the Niner strategy on the defensive line was to release the hounds. An all-out pursuit of the quarterback including rushing past the QB to then attack from behind him.

Defensive coordinator Steve Wilks has changed that, choosing to form a containment bubble around the quarterback and deny scramble lanes. Sacks have gone down while pressures have gone up.

Wilks’ scheme has worked in limiting quarterback runs. This year just one QB run of at least ten yards, a 12-yard gain by Arizona’s Josh Dobbs. Last year the Niners gave up ten quarterback runs of 10 yards or more, led by a 20-yarder from Atlanta’s Marcus Mariota.

NEEDED REPS PAYING OFF ON THE OFFENSIVE LINE

Aaron Banks and Jake Brendel have both shown improvement this year in the run game and pass pro. More time in the system and on the field has helped them make a jump in execution.

WINNING ONE ON ONE

A key driver of the offensive success is that it forces a defense to pick its poison. Sell out to stop Christian McCaffrey and Brandon Aiyuk will beat you. Defend them man up and lose.

That concept will be tested by the league’s top-ranked defense in Cleveland, providing a playoff-style matchup for the Niner offense. The Browns have team speed at all three levels, can stop the run, and have the corners to potentially match up with Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel. It will be interesting to see how that plays out. If Cleveland can’t hold the Niners under 30, who can?

CLEVELAND

The Browns' offense is so weak their defense will eventually be on the field too long and wear down. The Niners should stay unbeaten provided they protect the ball.

MINNESOTA

The overriding concern here isn’t the Vikings but the field. U.S. Bank Stadium uses slit film turf, the same surface as MetLife Stadium in New York, which is notorious for injuries. Last week in Minnesota, the Chiefs’ Travis Kelce had a non-contact ankle injury but returned later in the game.

The Niners will be at high injury risk on this surface, Minnesota is replacing it next year. Fortunately for San Francisco, it’s their next-to-last game on turf. Seattle on Thanksgiving night will be the final turf game and then the Niners close out the year with six straight games on grass fields.

CINCINNATI

Joe Burrow’s health is the key question as the Niners secondary will be tested by Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. In 2021, The Niners beat a better Bengals team in Cincinnati 26-23 in OT. Now the Niners have improved and the Bengals have regressed.

The Niners should go into their bye week undefeated if they maintain their current level of execution. If they can avoid injuries in Minnesota, they’ll be well-positioned for the tougher second half of the year.