This Stat is Concerning for Christian McCaffrey in 2026

The backup running back position should be a need for the San Francisco 49ers this season. Christian McCaffrey is coming off one of the most impressive seasons of his career, but the odds of repeating that level of production are difficult for any player. Because of that, the 49ers may need to be prepared for some regression or potential injury.

Are the San Francisco 49ers concerned about Christian McCaffrey in 2026?

Mike Clay of ESPN analyzed every team during the offseason and highlighted several notable statistical trends. One of his observations was that McCaffrey would be a major outlier if he were able to replicate a season similar to the one he just had.

Since 2011, there have now been 16 instances of a back reaching 400 touches (including the playoffs). Excluding Le'Veon Bell (who infamously skipped the 2018 season), our sample of 14 RBs went on to average 12.6 games and 18.0 fantasy PPG the following regular season... only five repeated as top-five fantasy scorers. Perhaps most concerning is age. Of the five who repeated as top-five scorers, four were 26 years old or younger (Ezekiel Elliott 24, Ray Rice 25, Derrick Henry 26, Bell 25). The exception is Marshawn Lynch (28), who was younger than the age McCaffrey will be next season (30), and Lynch barely hit the 400-touch threshold (403).
Mike Clay

Among the players Clay examined, only five out of 14 were able to play every game the following season after handling a similar workload. Even more telling, just four of those 14 players were able to perform at a comparable level the next year. None of those players were as old as McCaffrey is entering the 2026 season, which adds another layer of concern.

If McCaffrey were still in the early stages of his prime, it might be easier to expect him to handle another season with a heavy workload. However, asking a veteran running back to repeat that level of production after such a high number of touches is historically difficult.

There is also McCaffrey’s own injury history to consider. The two seasons in which he handled the most touches during his career were followed by injury-filled seasons. That pattern raises questions about how sustainable a massive workload can be for him. Running backs who accumulate that many carries and touches in a single year often experience setbacks the following season, making the situation something the 49ers must monitor carefully.

What makes the situation more notable is that the 49ers’ depth chart appears thinner than it did a year ago. Brian Robinson Jr. is no longer on the roster, removing a player who previously helped handle carries behind McCaffrey. Jordan James did see action late in the season, but he did not record a single carry until the team’s playoff game. That limited usage leaves questions about how large of a role he could handle over a full season.

Another player in the backfield, Isaac Guerendo, has primarily been used on special teams. If James cannot absorb the workload that Robinson previously handled—and possibly more—the 49ers could find themselves short on reliable options at running back.

This situation also creates an interesting discussion for fantasy football players. McCaffrey’s role within the offense has historically required a large share of touches, especially with the current depth chart. If the roster remains unchanged, the 49ers may have little choice but to continue feeding him a similar workload.

However, that approach carries risk. If McCaffrey were to miss time, it is unclear whether James would immediately step into the same type of bell-cow role. The lack of proven depth behind McCaffrey means there is uncertainty surrounding how the backfield would be handled in that scenario.

Because of these factors, it will be interesting to see how the 49ers address the position moving forward. The team could look to add another running back in the 2026 NFL Draft, or it may decide to continue placing its trust in James to take on a larger role. Either way, the situation in the backfield will be one to watch as the 2026 season approaches.