NFL Expert Makes a Wild 2026 Brock Purdy Projection

It’s not unusual for there to be wild projections or predictions during the NFL offseason. But there was one made recently about 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy.

ESPN’s NFL expert Mike Clay is projecting Purdy to be the passing yards leader in 2026 with 4,284. He has him ahead of elite quarterbacks, like Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, and Matthew Stafford. Simply wild.

Why it’s a wild projection

.@mikeclaynfl projects Brock Purdy to lead the NFL in passing yards 🔥 pic.twitter.com/rIfTS3fVjK
— ESPN Fantasy Sports (@ESPNFantasy) May 6, 2026

Projecting Purdy to have 4,284 passing yards isn’t crazy. He had 4,280 in 2023, the year he was an MVP finalist en route to the Super Bowl. If he’s done it before, he’s capable of doing it again.

What is wild is projecting him to be the passing yards leader. It’s not the number that’s wild. It’s anticipating him to be No. 1 in passing yards. There’s zero chance that will happen.

For starters, is Purdy even going to play all 17 games next year? He’s not an injury-prone player, but he’s also not Mr. Durable either. That’s why Kyle Shanahan wanted to keep Mac Jones.

He knows Purdy can go down and out for a few games at a moment’s notice, like with his turf toe injury last year. If Purdy can’t play all 17 games, then he definitely won’t be the top passing yards leader.

Another factor is that the 49ers aren’t a passing-heavy team. They want to run the football. It’s been their M.O. under Shanahan. Even if they’re inefficient doing so, they’ll still run it, like last season.

Jan 17, 2026; Seattle, WA, USA; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy (13) is pressured by Seattle Seahawks defensive end DeMarcus Lawrence (0) during the first half in an NFC Divisional Round game at Lumen Field. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-Imagn Images | Steven Bisig-Imagn Images

Signing Mike Evans won’t change that for the 49ers either. What also gets forgotten about Purdy’s career-high in passing yards in 2023 was that he had help with yards after the catch.

Christian McCaffrey was great at that, and so was Deebo Samuel. George Kittle would contribute there, too. Purdy doesn’t have any lethal after-the-catch skill players this year.

Maybe someone will surprise, like rookie De’Zhaun Stribling, but I’d say the odds aren’t great on that. At that point, you’re looking at Purdy to gain his yards with a bunch of chunk plays.

He’s just not going to give the 49ers that in a heavy dose. And if he does, it’s still not going to be enough to compete with the likes of Allen, Burrow, Stafford, and even Dak Prescott.

If Purdy somehow leads the league in passing yards, that will mean the 49ers’ defense was flimsy. They needed Purdy to pass more often to chase points. I don’t see their defense being that low-level.

Eclipsing 4,000 passing yards isn’t wild. That’s normal in this day and age of the NFL. Purdy can do it, but leading the league for it? Not a chance.

Follow Jose on X (Twitter) @JS3sanchezz to interact with him on the 49ers and more.

Add us as a preferred source on Google