Why the 49ers are in Danger of Falling Short of the Super Bowl Again

Brock Purdy, who was sweet and elevated the 49ers offense in his eight starts last year, has been nursing a ruptured UCL in his throwing arm. He’s been missing a lot of time throwing and being out there with the team. There’s also a chance his arm could be worse following the injury, so a lot of momentum that Purdy had from last year will have dissipated.

But what ultimately is the most concerning with Purdy, is that he has spent all offseason recovering and rehabbing, which means he hasn’t had a chance to work on his faults. Everything with him has been spent to get back to normal since he got injured with zero time to spend on polishing up areas he’s weak in. When he faces defenses this year, there is a fair chance he won’t look as good as he did last year. Players always get figured out once there is tape on them. It happened most recently with Deebo Samuel when the formations Kyle Shanahan developed to free him up no longer had the same efficiency.

If you want to delve into quarterback specifically with the 49ers, Colin Kaepernick is one off the top of my head. His vaunted read option plays and scrambling no longer were as dominant as his first year. And he was a player with unique physical traits. Purdy on the other hand doesn’t have any of that. Sure, he can move pretty well against pressure, but he’s not someone who’s going to take off and gain a ton of yards. Defenses eventually will key in and account for that. I don’t think we will see the same Purdy that was on display last year because he will be the same without any improvement, which usually means he’s getting worse. You’re either getting better or worse in the NFL, and if a player is the same it defaults as worse.

As for the other quarterbacks, Trey Lance still is a very raw player who needs to play to develop, but I doubt he gets that opportunity. He would need to start a full season to hopefully be solid as the season nears its end. So much time has been wasted with Lance with injuries playing a significant role. If Purdy ends up missing time or goes down for the season, especially mid to late season, the 49ers will not make a Super Bowl with Lance. He’ll need to somehow elevate exponentially and I don’t see that happening by any stretch of the imagination. It’s all or nothing really with Lance. He can’t just be thrown into the fire midseason or later and expected to lead the team to a Super Bowl. He’s bound to fail.

Lastly is Sam Darnold, who I really have zero hope for. He is who he is. He’ll probably be a serviceable quarterback for the 49ers should he have to be the guy that leads the team, but he’s not striking fear in anyone. If he has to start, it’ll be enough to keep the 49ers in contention and maybe even win a playoff game, considering the first opponent likely will be a weak wild card opponent. But Darnold is bound to lose a game for the 49ers. He’s basically Jimmy Garoppolo 2.0 with his decision making. That is something I don’t think the 49ers can improve.

2023 has a chance to prove that the 49ers are a routine franchise. They’ll always be a playoff contender because they have a great defense, an excellent offense loaded with stars and a great offensive play caller. But what always kills them is the variable at quarterback. That variable is why this team always falls short whether it’s losing in an NFC Championship game or in the Super Bowl. This year feels like it will happen again given Purdy’s injury and lack of time to improve, the rawness of Lance and Darnold being a basic game manager at best.