Albert Breer’s NFL Mailbag: Exploring Matt LaFleur’s Trade Value

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Matt LaFleur
State of quarterbacks
Jesse Minter
Jacksonville Jaguars
NFL draft
QB carousel
Los Angeles Chargers
Klint Kubiak/Vance Joseph
College coaches
Tennessee Titans
Cleveland Browns
Philadelphia Eagles
Las Vegas Raiders
OC and DC candidates
Eagles OC

We’re gonna fire through the questions in this week’s NFL mailbag because of everything that’s going on, from the coaching carousel to the divisional round set to kick off. Let’s go!

Matt LaFleur

From Marcus Zahn (@Dolphini2): What do you think Matt LaFleur’s trade price would be if it comes to that? More than a second?

Marcus, this is tricky, and could be a little drawn out—but it’s not impossible.

I’ve said from the start that the Packers want to extend Matt LaFleur. But sometimes, if talks stall, eyes (on both sides of the table) wander. And on a wide-open coaching market that’s requiring some creativity, rather than chasing prominent names, you don’t have to twist yourself into a pretzel mentally to find executives in Atlanta and Miami that might throw their hats into that ring if things play out a certain way.

First things first: I think it’d take an impasse in those talks to open up this discussion. We may get there. Ben Johnson got $13 million per year, and Liam Coen got $12 million per year in January of 2024. Those two guys brought a combined zero games of experience as head coaches to the proverbial negotiating table. Logically, that gives LaFleur, who’s been to two NFC title games, and is 16th all-time in winning percentage (.654), plenty of room to ask for between $15 million and $20 million. Will the Packers go there?

If they won’t, and next week comes, could someone like Atlanta’s Matt Ryan or Miami’s Jon-Eric Sullivan, with their ties to LaFleur, call? Sure. And at that point, I’d think we’d be talking about maybe a top-60 pick, and something else (worth mentioning here, by the way, that the Falcons don’t have a first-rounder).

State of quarterbacks

From Crunch Time Sports Advantage Network (@CrunchTimeVIP): We have all said that the NFL is a QB-driven league. The current state of the position may be the worst we have seen in decades. A team either has an elite or top-tier QB 10-12 in the league, a rookie/QB within his first three seasons, or just a guy. There doesn’t seem to be a second.

Crunch Time, I’d strongly disagree. I think that quarterbacking has never been better.

So I looked at it, trying to come up with an objective measure. I cooked this up: 11 quarterbacks either played in a Super Bowl or made first- or second-team All-Pro: Patrick Mahomes, Jared Goff, Joe Burrow, Aaron Rodgers, Jalen Hurts, Matthew Stafford, Brock Purdy, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Drake Maye and Dak Prescott. Nine more have made a Pro Bowl roster: Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert, Sam Darnold, C.J. Stroud, Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, Jayden Daniels, Geno Smith and Trevor Lawrence.

That’s 20 quarterbacks, and outside of that group you can still come up with names like Jordan Love, Bo Nix and Bryce Young.

Now, my formative years were the 1980s and ’90s. Can anyone name the 20th-best quarterback in football from those years? I went back and looked at 1986, and I eliminated 17 quarterbacks, including Joe Montana, Dan Marino, John Elway and Jim Kelly, as well as good-not-great guys such as Dave Krieg, Ken O’Brien and Tony Eason. Who’s left? Quarterbacks like Tommy Kramer and Neil Lomax.

Do the same thing with 17 guys in 1996, and I had to take names like Jeff Hostetler, Jeff Blake, an older Krieg and Boomer Esiason out, and now you’re on guys such as Ty Detmer, Chris Chandler (who did make a Super Bowl) and Scott Mitchell.

To me, the idea that there aren’t enough quarterbacks lacks historical context.

The position’s never been deeper.

Jesse Minter

From Tucker Powell (@TuckerrPowell9): If you had to guess, if (Jesse) Minter gets a HC job, where would it be?

Tucker, Vegas is the one that flashes a bit to me because of his connections there. GM John Spytek and minority owner Tom Brady, both former Michigan football players, are well acquainted with Minter, and have ties to him through the school. And Spytek and Brady’s history tells you that neither will be afraid to hire a defensive-minded head coach.

There are links to the Ravens, too, where Minter worked for four years (2017 to ’20). My guess, at this point, and I feel the same way about Pittsburgh, is that Baltimore may lean a little more toward bringing in a new voice, rather than someone from its family of coaches. And that wouldn’t necessarily be a bad thing for Minter. Mike Macdonald’s success in Seattle is part of how Minter’s name has gotten so hot, and it’s happened in a place where Macdonald was the new guy implementing his program.

The Raiders, whose search is wide open, would give him that, but with guys who are well aware of what a Harbaugh-influenced program would look like.

Jacksonville Jaguars

From slingin_sammy07 (@slingin_sammy07): What’s your take on the Jags reporter giving Coen a heartfelt congratulations? Big J Journalists are overreacting right?

Sammy! First, I have nothing against Lynn Jones. I’ve told coaches before that I thought they had a fantastic season, or that their staff did a great job. Now, those are sentiments I’d share privately, under the premise that everyone’s time in a press conference, especially postgame, is limited, and I wouldn’t want to waste anyone else’s. Everyone who’s said the purpose of a press conference is to get the necessary questions asked is correct.

The best analogy I could give you on that would be if you were in a sales meeting with another company, and you respected the guy you were negotiating with. Let’s say there are 30 people in there. Would you tell him right there, in the middle of the negotiation, how much you think of him? Or would you wait until after, and pull him aside?

I get why fans don’t see these spaces as workplaces. But that’s what they are.

Second, the idea that sports journalists don’t like the sports they cover is stupid. I’d share my own experience on that. My first full-time job in the industry paid $24,000. I covered high school sports for five years, which eventually included two years on the Patriots beat. At that point, I already loved sports, and football in particular (I always wanted to cover football specifically, that part isn’t happenstance). I was falling in love with reporting, and storytelling, and journalism.

If I didn’t love both, no way would I have made it five years (and two years juggling what were essentially separate full-time jobs, covering the Pats and preps) doing that job at that pay, working nights and weekends—some people I worked with wound up leaving because of what the job did to their social lives. I had friends in finance or sales making triple or quadruple what I was making that got to go to Happy Hour or go away on weekends. But I loved my job, first and foremost, because I loved sports.

I’m not complaining, by the way. I’m so grateful I had to do it that way because it gave me a work ethic, drive, competitiveness and priceless know-how. I’m saying that there’s no way I stick with it like I did if I didn’t love both sports and journalism.

NFL draft

From Dylan Schmittler (@DylansSports1): Where would Jeremiah Smith be drafted if he were eligible?

Dylan, I am confident he would be the first non-quarterback taken. His comp is Julio Jones—one I’ve gotten over and over from NFL folks—that he may be even more physically gifted now than Jones was coming out. In this year’s draft, for what it’s worth, that would probably make him the second pick (now that Dante Moore is going back to Oregon), and he’d be joining another Buckeye receiver with the Jets.

QB carousel

From Jg (@jgima94): QB carousel question: What pick will it take to get Mac Jones out of SF? How many years will (Malik) Willis get if you had to guess?

Jg, I’d say a Day 2 pick, and maybe a Day 3 pick swap for Jones. The Jets’ trade of Sam Darnold to the Panthers might be the best recent comp I could find, and New York got a 2021 sixth-round pick and ’22 second- and fourth-rounders for the quarterback. I’d guess the price would be a little less because Darnold had two years left on his rookie deal, and he was a little younger, too.

Regardless, the Niners were brilliant to get Mac Jones signed to a two-year, $8.41 million contract. It gave them the flexibility to trade him if he showed real value, and to trade him on a very reasonable base number ($4.67 million) for 2026. He has since shown such value (a 97.4 passer rating in 11 games, and a 5–3 record in his eight starts), and so the opportunity for another team to land him at the financial rate of a backup drives up his trade value. And the downside for the team at the time of signing was really minimal.

Los Angeles Chargers

From Charlie (@cmsinclar): Who would say are Chargers OC targets?

Charlie, they started their interviews by bringing in Marcus Brady on Thursday, and I’d expect more names to start to trickle in over the coming days. Ex-Titan coach Brian Callahan, ex-Giants coach Brian Daboll and Broncos QBs coach/pass game coordinator Davis Webb are three I’ve heard. And that illustrates the open-mindedness Jim Harbaugh appears to be taking into the search. Those three guys all have different schematic roots.

Another name that would be interesting is Rams pass game coordinator Nathan Scheelhaase, who just turned 35, came up under Matt Campbell at Iowa State, and has coached the past two years under Sean McVay. That experience around strong run-game guys would appeal to Harbaugh, as would Scheelhaase’s background as a quarterback.

Klint Kubiak/Vance Joseph

From David Kromelow (@dkrom59): Who is more likely to end up with a head coaching job this cycle, Klint Kubiak or Vance Joseph?

I’d lean toward Kubiak just because of the dearth of young offensive assistants on the market. It’s to the point where we have non-play-calling first-year coordinators (and I like Grant Udinski, but this is early) and guys who aren’t even OCs yet (Scheelhaase and Webb) getting real looks. Kubiak, meanwhile, has already been a play-calling coordinator for three different teams. He showed this year, in leading the Seahawks offense, that he’s learned from those experiences.

I also think Kubiak is a realistic candidate in more places, which gives him a better shot. If the Falcons don’t land Kevin Stefanski (or trade for Matt LaFleur), then I think Kubiak will be in the middle of that one. Miami and Arizona are possibilities, too. With Joseph, who’s done a fantastic job, I think you’re looking more at Arizona and potentially the Ravens. So I’d go with Kubiak as having a better chance.

But both are strong candidates.

College coaches

From 9's (@JLK7299): Are any college coaches going to be up for any of the available jobs?

9’s, there are really two guys that immediately come to mind, and both reaffirmed their commitments to their school: Indiana’s Curt Cignetti and Notre Dame’s Marcus Freeman. And, I do think both guys stick to their word and stay.

But the Steelers’ job is the Steelers’ job. History says a coach will only have one shot at it, because it comes open about once a generation. Freeman is a Midwesterner who grew up in the AFC North, fewer than four miles West of Pittsburgh. And if he were some NFL team’s defensive coordinator right now, rather than a college coach, he’d be about precisely what a Steeler coach typically is. Meanwhile, Cignetti is from Pittsburgh, and grew up in the shadow of the Steel Curtain dynasty. So if there ever was an NFL job for him, this is it.

That said, the last time the Rooneys hired a college coach was in 1951, when they plucked Joe Bach (one of Notre Dame’s famed Seven Mules, which I learned today was the line that blocked for the Four Horsemen) from St. Bonaventure. And if you want my predictions, I’d say neither of these guys goes to Pittsburgh, with Freeman eventually winding up in the NFL, and Cignetti finishing his career in Bloomington, probably with his name on the stadium.

Tennessee Titans

From Graham Whittle (@GWhittle_10): Is there anything more to the Matt Nagy to Tennessee connection OTHER than the strong relationship that he and Borgonzi seem to have?

Cleveland Browns

From Z (@splitteroftheg): If you had to guess, who are the Browns going to hire as HC? Are they looking for an offensive guy and does a guy like Udinski have a real shot at getting the job?

Z, my guess would be Jim Schwartz. But they’re one of two teams (Atlanta being the other) where there’s an internal preference to keep a good defensive coordinator on board in some capacity. And I think there’s a good chance Schwartz, who’s loved by his players and has developed the young guys at a high level, is the guy when it’s all said and done. We’ll see next week.

Philadelphia Eagles

From Jason (@Mailman725): What changes are needed for the Eagles? Will A.J. Brown be traded in the offseason?

Jason, I feel like it’s just time with A.J. Brown. I don’t know that Philly will shop him. But I do think they’ll listen to calls. And if they dealt him, they’d obviously have to replace him and find someone to play opposite DeVonta Smith (who was their No. 1 this year).

Otherwise, the roster is in good shape. The defense has gotten younger and better. The offensive line is still among the best in football, and Saquon Barkley’s still playing at a high level. To me, you’d be looking into the future with picks in this year’s draft. And if I were them, that might mean finding an offensive tackle to develop behind Jordan Mailata and Lane Johnson (preferably one who could play guard in the short term), and then perhaps a back to take some of the load off Barkley, and eventually replace him.

Las Vegas Raiders

From Albert (@Albertg34): Is Davis Webb a realistic option for the Raiders? At first I wasn’t a fan of it but I’ve come around and would really like it to happen. He would give Vegas a coach who can grow with the team and honestly not have unrealistic expectations and allow this team to be built correctly.

Albert, yes, I think he is. For one, there’s a good chance he’d bring an experienced OC with him—be it Kingsbury (a good friend of Tom Brady’s who coached Webb at Texas Tech) or Daboll (who Webb was with in both Buffalo and New York, and who was with Brady in New England). Then, there’s the upside he would bring, with his varied experience as a player and coach, and the energy he’d give to a program that needs it.

Would it be a gamble? Sure. But with Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza likely arriving in late April, creating great infrastructure for the quarterback will be key. And while I’ve said that there’s a whole more to being a head coach than that, anyone who’s been around Webb knows he might have even more potential as a program leader than he brings as a teacher of the position that he played.

OC and DC candidates

From Bolt Up in the 6ix (@BoltUp6ix): What high-profile candidates are likely to pursue OC jobs over HC jobs? I’m talking, maybe, previous HC or OC-type candidates—those who don’t necessarily want the HC title and role for next year.

I don’t know if there are many. Maybe Daboll and Mike McDaniel see specific coordinator jobs as favorable career-wise to what they might perceive as a bad head-coaching job, on the premise that most guys don’t get more than two shots.

But there is that “there’s only 32 of them” mostly true premise.

Eagles OC

From Ryan Fendt (@FendtRyan): Assuming (Kevin) Patullo is out as the Eagles’ OC, who do you think will be their new OC and do you think they are going to hire someone that can/will not get poached the next year so (Jalen) Hurts can finally have some continuity? OC continuity with QBs seems hard to come by these days.

Ryan, McDaniel, Scheelhaase, Daboll, Zac Robinson and Mike Kafka make sense. I’ve also heard a college name or two that would show Philly’s thinking outside the box on this one, too, and that doesn’t mean they’ll hire someone out of left field, but they’re at least looking there.