© Clare Grant/The Columbus Dispatc / USA
What to Expect for Bears When the Drafting Begins
Analysis: Numerous scenarios abound when the second pick in the draft after Caleb Williams comes up, and here's what could shape the next Bears selection at No. 9.
The Bears will take Caleb Williams No. 1 in the draft, he will wear his navy suit with silver in it, maybe with his nails painted orange and blue with a "C" on them.
Who knows and who really cares?
He'll accept congratulations from commissioner Roger Goodell and the Bears fans who are in Detroit for the festivities will go crazy.
After ESPN, NFL Network and ABC talk to him—and provided PBS and NPR and the Joe Blow podcast don't also get interviews with him first—there will be a resumption of the draft.
Then what?
What happens at No. 9 is the the perplexing problem facing the Bears in this draft. Do they stay put or do they go back a spot or two like last year after their initial drop to No. 9 from No. 1, when they went from No. 9 to No. 10?
"Yeah I like the numbers in terms of talented players that can get to Nine," GM Ryan Poles said.
On paper he likes it. Then stuff happens from No. 2 through No. 8 and it can affect whether he still likes the way it sets up.
"I like where we're at there on top of being set up next year to have a pretty good setup as well," he said. By this he is referring to a first-rounder and then two second-round picks in 2025 courtesy of the Carolina trade last year.
It is in this stretch of picks, from No. 2 through No. 8, where the Bears' fate will be decided in this draft.
Here is how it will play out or could play out, looking at possible scenarios.
1. The Run on QBs
How long it lasts is the question. The longer for the Bears, the better.
It should begin with Williams' pick, then the next two picks should be for a quarterback. It's always possible Washington, at No. 2, and New England, at No. 3, could come to their senses and trade out of it. They're in the top three spots not only because of their quarterbacks but because of how weak their team is. They didn't get those positions the way the Bears did No. 1, which was through a trade. It would make total sense for them to trade with some team later in the round like Denver, the Raiders or Minnesota--maybe even a few others later--who covet Drake Maye and Jayden Daniels.
Either way, those next two spots will be for quarterbacks after Williams goes.
Then comes the big issue and it's where the fourth quarterback lands, either J.J. McCarthy or Maye or Daniels.
Most likely it's going to be one of the teams either trading up with the Cardinals at No. 4 or trading up at No. 5 with the Chargers or No. 6 with the Giants. Or maybe it will be the Giants themselves.
2. Cardinals and MHJ
The Cardinals need a receiver and are going forward with Kyler Murray. They have a defensive-minded head coach and their defense was lacking in top talent last year. It's entirely possible they would trade out of the fourth spot to a team seeking a quarterback, while they move back for the fourth receiver and/or a pass rusher or defensive tackle.
This is the spot where the intrigue really begins for the Bears.
It's unlikely they're planning a move up to take Marvin Harrison Jr. as No. 4 is too far to go in terms of compensation, but if he he falls then they could make the move.
As Poles said, they like where they are in the round and how next year's draft is set up. If they trade up for MHJ, it's going to take giving up that second-round pick next year and most likely something else of note. They could even need to give up picks from this year's paltry four-player draft class.
It's not that MHJ would be unworthy of a Bears trade up, but it's a lot to expect of them to give up picks when they're limited in this area anyway.
Reportedly, one of the things the Caleb Williams camp wanted assurances of from the Bears before deciding to go along peacefully as the savior of the Chicago franchise was they would build the infrastructure for him to succeed. They've made great strides in this regard with Keenan Allen, Gerald Everett and the line help they acquired in free agency. It really does look like it's missing a piece or two.
Would the missing piece be the third receiver, and does it have to be MHJ?
It's more than likely the Cardinals will take MHJ, considering how poor their receiver corps has become. But trading back with the Bears would still let them get the ninth pick for possibly Malik Nabers or Rome Odunze if the Bears chose MHJ. And they would have extra picks for their future.
It's more likely another team would trade up there to the spot for the fourth quarterback, however. The Vikings are well armed for such a move, with two first-round picks, including the 11th overall.
3. Jim Harbaugh's Secret Plan
League observers seem convinced Harbaugh will take one of the receivers for the Chargers, possibly MHJ if a fourth quarterback goes at No. 4 in a trade.
Then again, nothing says Harbaugh would sit still. And it's here where the Bears could get involved with a trade up. This would again require next year's second-round pick and probably something else. Moving up four spots at that point of the draft is costly. Harbaugh could still get his receiver at No. 9 if that's what he wants, but the other option he could seek is an offensive tackle. His past screams offensive tackle.
This isn't mentioned as often in Chargers draft analysis, but Harbaugh always leans on the running game. He could take tackle Joe Alt here, leaving MHJ to slide to No. 6.
MHJ visited with the Cardinals, the Bears and the Giants. And the Giants are at No. 6.
4. Giants QB Issue
New York seems stuck with QB Daniel Jones. However, the poor guy hasn't had a legitimate No. 1 receiver since the departure of Odell Beckham Jr. If he had one, perhaps people aren't trying to run him out of town.
Then again, his coach, Brian Daboll, is a former offensive coordinator who could be through with trying to improve Jones. Daboll might want in on this QB derby himself. He no longer has Saquon Barkley to lean on in the running game, so they have to do something to drastically improve the passing attack.
What the Giants do at No. 6 might be the last big domino to fall before the Bears' fate gets decided, because another quarterback taken here by the Giants or through a trade, will mean one of the top three wide receivers defiintely will be available to the Bears. If MHJ went at No. 4 to Arizona, it will likely mean Nabers or Ordunze to the Giants. If it's a quarterback move by the Giants or someone else trading here, then the Bears are getting a receiver, no problem.
Remember, too, the Giants gave up more sacks than anyone in the league last year. Drafting Joe Alt wouldn't necessarily help, though, because it's not left tackle where they have the problems.
A receiver who is open before the pass rush gets home might help the Giants more, and that would be MHJ if he's not gone to Arizona, or either Nabers or Odunze.
5. The Man Mountain
The Titans have already addressed wide receiver by signing Calvin Ridley. They drafted Will Levis last year and need to give him a chance to throw behind a solid offensive line. Only Washington, Carolina and the Giants gave up more sacks last year than the Titans.
This is the most obvious landing place for Notre Dame's Alt, leaving receivers to drop a spot.
If the Bears covet MHJ more than the other two receivers, and he's falling because of the trades down and quarterbacks, it's not out of the question the Bears would move up a spot or two for him. The Titans could feel comfortable trading back here two spots because they could then draft Alt, anyway.
6. The Last Step
Atlanta's position in the spot ahead of the Bears is almost irrelevant, provided they're not trading it away to someone who would jump up in front of the Bears to take a receiver or edge rusher.
Dallas Turner of Alabama is most likely the best overall pass rusher in the draft and the Falcons badly need an edge rusher. It's a no-brainer. This pick wouldn't hurt the Bears unless they are dead set on drafting an edge over a receiver, and this appears unlikely. Poles' insistence that they are in a good situation at No. 9 indicates they're flexible at which position they can take.
The smart play for the Falcons would be Turner. They could also go cornerback. Either way, don't look for the Bears to be affected. The third-best wide receiver is better than the best edge rusher in this draft.
So we arrive at the Bears pick and the most likely choice is either the third-best wide receiver, presumably Odunze, or trading back because pass rushing quality would likely be available a few picks later, so long as they don't move back too far.
7. Provisional
This is only necessary if the Bears are trading back. It depends greatly upon how far they've gone back. There could be edge rushers. They could look, instead, at a tackle or a tackle who projects as a guard. They're not in need of a guard starter but last year showed how fragile the guards they have in place really are. A player who challenged Braxton Jones or supplied potential as a guard replacement like Taleise Fuaga or Troy Fautanu, or simply another left tackle like Olu Fashanu of Penn State, would come into play then.
If the Bears trade back, just about any edge rusher, defensive tackle or offensive tackle still available could become their second pick in Round 1.
If they went back far enough, it could even be center Jackson Powers-Johnson from Oregon.
Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven
