Bear Digest

Bears Predictions: Rest of Schedule, Final Record, Off-Season

Analyzing where the Bears can finish up, the near future and postseason outlook for a team in a total state of uncertainty after disappointing everyone in 2024.
Gene Chamberlain|
Keenan Allen and the offense are starting to click and Thomas Brown needs to hope it's not too late to work on his behalf.
Keenan Allen and the offense are starting to click and Thomas Brown needs to hope it's not too late to work on his behalf. | Kimberly P. Mitchell / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

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Chicago Bears

The expected boost the Bear will receive in morale with Thomas Brown as acting head coach probably won't be enough to lift them past the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday for a few reasons, although it should improve their play in a few ways.

It's safe to anticipate they'll come out fired up because Brown has an edge to the way he talks to the team, one that actually reminds some of a Mike Tomlin.

The way the Bears will play early should be one of the different aspects. The Bears trailed first in 11 of their 12 games this season. The only time they didn't fall behind initially was the loss in overtime to Minnesota at Soldier Field when Roschon Johnson powered in from the 1 in the first quarter.

They have trailed first in two of the three games Brown called as offensive coordinator, but that's a lot better than they did under Shane Waldron as they fell behind first in all nine games with him as offensive coordinator. They have exactly as many first-quarter points under Brown in three games (10) as they had for the entire nine games under Waldron.

It's still not enough to score 10 first-quarter points in three games. They need to assert themselves immediately, own leads and expand them.

The close to the game with Detroit was the explosion to a powder keg. They hadn't been able to finish in any of the other five losses during their losing streak and even early in their losses to the Colts and Texans. They are always a step behind at the beginning and two steps behind at the end.

The issue with finishing hasn't improved with Brown as coordinator, but then again the coordinator can only do so much from the coach's box. He can't order the timeout. It's the head coach doing this.

If they prove they can start fast and finish strong, stay ahead of the game under Brown, then they could make a strong run through a difficult schedule that should be four playoff-bound teams. If that occurs, Brown should get consideration for the head coaching job.

Here's the prediction on what happens to close the rest of their schedule, their final record, and the most immediate future before they set their sights on the identity of their next coach.

It's going to take more than a crystal ball to predict what a franchise that hired Marc Trestman over Bruce Arians will do for its next head coach.

The Rest of 2024 Season

A Loss at San Francisco because they can't stop the run and the 49ers will have someone to carry it enough to hurt the Bears defense, thereby making them vulnerable to play-action.

A loss at Minnesota because it's their toughest remaining game. Caleb Williams plays poorly on the road. His passer rating in road games is 73.4 on the road to 97.5 at home. He completes only 56% on the road and 66.5% at home. And it's just difficult playing in the noise at Minnesota.

A win over the Lions on Dec. 22 at Soldier Field. Some might think this call shows a lack of brains on my part but it's actually a no-brainer. It's not going to be warm at Soldier Field for Jared Goff and he absolutely cannot play in cold weather. The defense will intercept and swarm and the Bears will come away with a win by four to seven points.

A win over Seattle on the day after Christmas. It's never good for road teams around Christmas and the Seahawks have to leave on Christmas and then spend Christmas night in Chicago, then play Thursday on a short work week and do it by losing time going east to play. They also might be in first place now but they don't play like a playoff team. They're 18th on defense, 16th on offense, 28th rushing the ball and 21st stopping the run. They pass the ball well and defend the pass. As such, they're set up to fail against a balanced approach. They also turn the ball over more than all but five other teams. Arizona or the Rams will win that division and the Bears will have a major part in deciding it.

CHICAGO BEARS AND SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS: WHO WINS AND WHY

NICK BOSA DOWNGRADED TO OUT

BEARS AND 49ERS GAME DAY PREVIEW

A TRIP THROUGH ALL THE BEARS HEAD COACHING DEBUTS

https://www.si.com/nfl/bears/chicago-bears-and-san-francisco-49ers-game-day-preview

The season finale will be the usual disappointment in Green Bay even though Jordan Love and many of the starters play only part of the game. It won't matter. The Packers are fifth in rushing and the Bears can't stop the run. Malik Willis will play most of the game at quarterback and Green Bay's running attack has looked dominant in his two starts. They'll beat the Bears comfortably.

The Record and Result

The Bears finish 6-11. While their general play at the end will be enough to show improvement since Eberflus was coach, it won't be enough to convince anyone Thomas Brown should be their next head coach.

Whether they keep him on staff would be up to whoever the next head coach is but forcing coaches to keep assistants they don't know or want isn't a good policy. It worked with the Bears once with Mike Ditka and Buddy Ryan but that was during the Reagan administration.

Brown would leave and might even come up with a head coaching job on his own elsewhere because he'll have numerous opportunities. Or he'll be an offensive coordinator elsewhere and no doubt come back to beat the Bears.

Getting Help

The Bears will draft between seventh and 10th because of their record. Whoever the coach is will want to see them do exactly what Poles will want, and that's bolster their lines on both sides of the football with draft picks and free agents because you can't win when you can't rush the passer or stop the run, or when you have trouble in short-yardage situations and you can't protect Williams from behind sacked 49 times in 12 games.

Williams isn't getting rid of the ball too late and causing sacks like Fields used to do. NFL NextGen Stats says he's getting rid of it faster than Jordan Love, Patrick Mahomes, C.J. Stroud, Russell Wilson, Bo Nix, Brock Purdy, Sam Darnold, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts and, of course, Justin Fields. Yet he is the most-sacked QB in the league.

The Coach

Poles and Kevin Warren have been around football long enough to see the Bears need to be better on offense, that they need a head coach who relates better with Caleb Williams and one who can keep them ahead of things at the beginning and end to games.

It's going to need to be a coach on the offensive side.

While there is plenty to be said for a dominant, tough guy personality like Mike Vrabel, especially when you see the way their locker room fell apart this year.

But the Bears haven't really taken the offensive route except for Marc Trestman and Matt Nagy. And Trestman was so bad at leading or choosing defensive help that the year he had the Bears eighth in the league on offense they were still not good enough for the playoffs.

Dave Wannstedt: defensive side. Dick Jauron: defensive side. Lovie Smith: defensive side. Eberflus: defensive side.

Trestman was a Chris Conte misake from getting into the playoffs and did elevate their offensive play for one year. Right now Nagy looks like the good old days with his record of 59-48, a division title and only one losing regular season. And he was from the offensive side.

They have the quarterback. Now they need the offensive side head coach.

It shouldn't be too difficult to figure out the names who need consideration.

Twitter: BearsOnSI

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.