Bear Digest

Chicago Bears and San Francisco 49ers Game Day Preview

A capsule look at the key statistics, trends and matchups in Sunday's game as Caleb Williams and the Chicago Bears try to end a six-game losing streak at San Francisco.

Gene Chamberlain

The Bears and 49ers split their last 10 games, but the Bears have won the last games played in San Francisco and in Chicago.
The Bears and 49ers split their last 10 games, but the Bears have won the last games played in San Francisco and in Chicago. / Mike Dinovo-Imagn Images
In this story:

Chicago Bears (4-8) at San Francisco 49ers (5-7)

Kickoff: 3:25 p.m. Sunday

Where: Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, Ca.

TV:  Fox (Kenny Albert, Jonathan Vilma, Megan Olivi)

Radio: ESPN AM-1000 (Jeff Joniak, Tom Thayer, Jason McKie)

National Radio: ESPN (Jorge Sedano, Kelly Stouffer, Courtney Cronin)

Spanish Radio: Latino Mix 93.5 FM (Omar Ramos, Miguel Esparza)

The Line: 49ers by 3 1/2, over/under 44 ½ (Fan Duel)

Chicago Bears On SI Pick: 49ers 24, Bears 17

The Series: The 70th time they've met. The 49ers have a lead of 35-33-1. San Francisco owns a 22-14 edge at home. The Bears won the last game 19-10 in Chicago in 2022 and the last game in San Francisco, 14-9 in 2018. The teams have split the last 10 games.

The Coaches: Chicago Bears interim head coach Thomas Brown makes his NFL coaching debut after firing of Matt Eberflus the day after the Bears' 23-20 loss at Detroit. Brown, an NFL offensive coordinator with Carolina last season, was Bears offensive coordinator three weeks following the firing of offensive coordinator Shane Waldron before becoming interim head coach. He was Bears passing game coordinator at the start of this season.

49ers coach Kyle Shanahan has a 77-62 record for eighth seasons. He is 69-57 for the regular season and is 2-2 against the Chicago. His record in home games is 34-29.

The Teams: The Bears are basically one loss or one Washington win from playoff elimination. They have lost six straight games, have lost seven straight on the road, their last win away from home coming at Minnesota on Nov. 27, 2023. Their sixth straight losses included one on blocked field goal, one on Hail Mary, one in overtime and last week's when the time ran out on their final pass and they were still in possession of a timeout with the ball on the Detroit 41 and needing a field goal to tie. The overall mission for them remains the development of QB Caleb Williams, who has thrown 232 straight times without an interception to set an NFL rookie record and also a Bears record. While Williams has an interception-free streak going, he also heated up overall with five touchdown passes and a passer rating of 99.2, and 827 yards total. He continues to be sacked regularly and now has been sacked an NFL high of 49 times. Meanwhile the Bears defense has faltered against the run, allowing 124 yards or more in five of their six straight losses. They've also slipped against the pass to 22nd in net yards allowed per attempt (6.5) but remain No. 1 in red zone defense.

The 49ers have lost three straight, to Green Bay, Seattle and Buffalo and their defense has allowed 93 points total for those games with a low of 20. They haven't had more than 17 points in the last three games as injuries continue to plague both their offense and defense. Edge Nick Bosa is out. They've lost RB Christian McCaffrey, RB Elijah Mitchell and RB Jordan Mason, and WR Brandon Aiyuk and DT Javon Hargrave to injured reserve and are in last place in the NFC West, two games behind first-place Seattle. Team officials said a rumor started by Pro Football Talk's Mike Florio was completely false, saying the 49ers might be willing to trade coach Kyle Shanahan to the Bears.

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Stat Leaders: For the Bears, QB Caleb Williams is 253 of 411 (61.6%) for 2,612 yards with 14 TDs and five interceptions for a passer rating of 86.1. DJ Moore leads the Bears in receptions (62) and yards receiving (663) and is tied for the team lead with Keenan Allen in TD catches (5). Running back D'Andre Swift leads the Bears in rushing with 704 yards on 179 attempts (3.9 yards per attempt). RB Roschon Johnson leads in rushing TDs with six. ... S Kevin Byard leads the Bears in tackles with 94 and DE Montez Sweat leads in tackles for loss with seven. DT Gervon Dexter his a team-high five sacks. CB Jaylon Johnson leads in interceptions with two and CB Tyrique Stevenson is the leader in pass defenses with nine.

For the 49ers, QB Brock Purdy is 213 of 324 (65.7%) for 2,707 yards with 13 TDs, eight INTs and a passer rating of 94.8. Purdy also has the most rushing yard of any player available on offense for San Francisco with 271 yards on 5 runs (5.1 ypc) and four TDs. George Kittle and Jauan Jennings are tied for the team receptions lead with 50 and Jennings is the leader in yardage (684). Kittle has the lead for most TD catches (8). ... LB Fred Warner leads in tackles with 88, while DE Nick Bosa leads in tackles for loss (10) and in sacks (8). Warner and CB Deommodore Lenoir lead in interceptions with two. CB Renardo Green leads in pass defenses with seven.

Injury Report: For the Bears, RB Roschon Johnson and T Ryan Bates are out with concussions, S Elijah Hicks is out with an ankle injury. WR DJ Moore (quad) and RB D'Andre Swift (quad) are questionable.

For the 49ers, LB Dre Greenlaw (Achilles), RB Jordan Mason (ankle), S George Odum (knee) , T Trent Williams (ankle), DE Nick Bosa (hip/oblique) and guard Aaron Banks (concussion) are out. DB Demetrius Flannign-Fowles (knee) and S Talanoa Hufanaga (wrist) are questionable.

Matching Up: The Bears are 26th on offense, 27th at passing and 23rd rushing. They are 23rd in points scored. Chicago is 22nd on defense, 11th against the pass and 25th against the run. They are ninth in points allowed.

The 49ers are seventh on offense, seventh in rushing and eighth at passing. They are 16th in scoring. San Francisco is fifth on defense, fourth against the pass and 15th against the run. The 49ers are 24th in scoring defense.

Of Note: The Bears are plus-10 in turnover ratio and the 49ers are minus-3. ... 49ers RB Isaac Guerendo had only one start in college at Wisconsin and Louisville and will get his first chance to be the main running back today.  ... Deebo Samuel's 208 yards on kick returns last week were the second most in team history (Abe Woodson, 210, 1962). ... Samuel's three straight games with fewer than 25 yards from scrimmage is the longest stretch of games like this in his career. ... The Bears are No. 1 in red zone defense (40.91% TDs) but the 49ers are second worst (70.7% TDs) ... The Bears have 22 third-down conversions in the last three games, tied for most in the league in that period. ...  The Bears have five red zone takeaways, tied for second most. ... P Tory Taylor has a 48.3-yard gross punting average, highest in Bears history. His 21 punts downed inside the 20-yard line are the most by any Bears rookie punter. ... Former Bears punter Pat O'Donnell is handling the job for the 49ers after a season-ending back injury to Mitch Wishnowsky.

Key Individual Matchups

Bears WR DJ Moore vs. 49ers CB Renardo Green

It's a rookie from Florida State against the explosive veteran, but Green has been a tough competitor all year with a 95.1 passer rating against when targeted and 65% completions allowed (26 of 40). Stathead and Pro Football Reference credit him with two TDs allowed. Pro Football Focus has him graded 19th best cornerback against the pass this year. Moore is trying to get over a quad injury and is questionable. Moore has not missed a game since 2020 with Carolina. His numbers have gradually risen with Williams' passing improvement and now he is at 64.6% catches-to-targets ratio, the third best of his career. He needs three TD catches to reach last year's total of eight and 40 targets to reach last year's total of 136. The number of different ways he's used in the offense has gone up since Thomas Brown took over the attack.

Bears CB Kyler Gordon vs. 49ers WR Jauan Jennings

Jennings will play all over the formation so calling him a slot receiver might be a misnomer but he will line up there. He has stepped up with the season-ending injury to Aiyuk and leads the team in most categories but he's going against a slot cornerback now graded by PFF as the 15th best overall in the league among all cornerbacks. The 6-foot, 200-pound Gordon has a 94.7 passer rating against and is allowing 69.4% completions and no TD catches. Jennings has a good size edge at 6-3, 212. At 68.4 yards per game receiving, he's averaging 42.4 more yards per game than in his previous best year.

Bears CB Jaylon Johnson vs. 49ers WR Deebo Samuel

It's been a season of handling the toughest assignments for Johnson and his cornerback grades from PFF show this as he has gradually slid from the top 10 and is 37th among all cornerbacks. His passer rating against has risen to 86.4 with two TD passes allowed, although he is still allowing a very low 60% completions when targeted according to Stathead/Pro Football Reference. Samuel's physical style hasn't been as evident this year and his success percentage is down to 39.3%, by far the lowest of his career. It's Samuel's sixth career season and he has only one 1,000-yard season.

Bears S Kevin Byard vs. 49ers TE George Kittle

Kittle is by far the biggest Niners threat, particularly in the red zone, and has eight TD catches. Kittle is certain to bounce back after being held to one catch for 7 yards by Buffalo. He has had TD catches in seven of the 10 games he has played this season. Although the Bears could match him with slot cornerback Kyler Gordon and with safety Kevin Byard, they'd like to get away with LB Tremaine Edmunds on him. It's probably going to be Byard more often. Byard has moved past LB T.J. Edwards for the Bears lead in tackles and has been playing more in the box and in shorter coverage than in the past because of the concussion suffered by Jaquan Brisker. Byard's passer rating against has been ballooning as a result of moving more and is up to 117.4 with four TD passes allowed, says Stathead. If the Bears can keep Edmunds nearby it's preferred as his passer rating against is 64.9 manning that deep middle linebacker spot in the zone.

Bears DE Montez Sweat vs. RT Colton McKivitz

McKivitz has been a solid performer and ranks 34th among all tackles according to PFF. The 6-foot-6, 301-pounder has had five penalties and one sack allowed. He could be a tackle Sweat is able to bully a bit because of a relatively lean build compared to other right tackles. Sweat 's pressures are down drastically at 17 and his sack total remains stationary as well at 4 1/2.

Bears TE Cole Kmet vs. 49ers LB Fred Warner

If Kmet is getting open this week then it will likely need to happen after he has gone outside rather than over the middle because Warner is turning the inside into a San Francisco fog. Receivers catch nothing there. He has dropped below Eagles linebacker Zack Baun in coverage grade but remains the best all-around linebacker in the view of many. Kmet's grades have dropped off through the year from a top-10 status all the way to 29th in PFF grades. He has 16 catches in the last six games for 159 yards and no touchdowns, coinciding with their losing streak.

Twitter: BearsOnSi

Published
Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

BearDigest.com publisher Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.