Bear Digest

Caleb Williams' passing yardage labeled as a bet sure to cash

According to one sports gambling writer the addition of Ben Johnson as play caller and a better line should make all the difference in boosting the Bears QB's passing number.
Gene Chamberlain|
Caleb Williams looks downfield after being flushed out of the pocket at Soldier Field against Detroit.
Caleb Williams looks downfield after being flushed out of the pocket at Soldier Field against Detroit. | Mike Dinovo-Imagn Images

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Chicago Bears

A Bears passing game in the hands of coach Ben Johnson, with Caleb Williams throwing the ball looks like a lock to challenge the Bears record of 3,838 passing yards in a season.

In fact, last week former Bears quarterback Rex Grossman predicted 4,200 to 4,300 yard passing this season for William.

The over/under on Williams' passing yardage total looks as close to a lock as it's possible to get to one sports gambling writer. Iain MacMillan of Sports Illustrated writers in an assessment of the coming season about Williams and thinks looks are not deceiving in this instance.

"I'm not the biggest believer in Williams, but it’s not hard to imagine him improving from his rookie season numbers when he threw for 3,541 yards," MacMillan wrote. "Now, he has a much more competent head coach in Johnson and a revamped offensive line, which should do wonders for his development.

"Even if he matches his passing yards total from last year, this bet will cash."

Fanduel.com had Williams' over/under for yardage at 3500.5 and DraftKings set it at 3,550.5.

Considering Williams appeared to be feeling his way through things at the start of his first season with 174 passing yards or less in three of the first four games, and threw for 150 yards or less five times, it would definitely appear his total will top out well above the 3,500 total.

In three years as Johnson's quarterback, Jared Goff never threw for less than 4,438 yards in a season. He threw for 3,245 yards in 2021 when Johnson had a bigger role in the offense but wasn't yet the coordinator. The Lions fired coordinator Anthony Lynn during the season that year.

Johnson's first official season as coordinator was 2022. Goff's passing yardage total climbed from 3,245 to 4,438 that season.

Whether Williams can make a similar jump depends on numerous extraneous circumstances, like the running game's success, the offensive line's performance and opponents, but one thing that must be remembered about last year's total was it came in Shane Waldron's sputtering attack.

There's quite a difference between the failures of that attack and what Johnson is used to doing.

Before jumping to conclusions about Williams' total going to the over, remember also the well-known NFL saying that Montez Sweat repeated last month at his OTAs press conference: "Football is a game where it’s not if you’re going to get hurt but when."

Injuries can always drop that total and Dak Prescott was a perfect example last year.

There is no such thing as a sure thing.

But Williams did go over the total last year when it was set at 3,400.5 yards.

  • Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
  • If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.