Bear Digest

Chicago Bears and Washington Commanders Week 6 who wins and why

A comparison of the positional groups between Caleb Williams and the Bears and Jayden Daniels and the Commanders, with a prediction on the final outcome.
Gene Chamberlain|
Caleb Williams tries to escape the grasp of Commanders defensive tackle Daron Payne in Washington's 18-15 win last year.
Caleb Williams tries to escape the grasp of Commanders defensive tackle Daron Payne in Washington's 18-15 win last year. | Peter Casey-Imagn Images

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Chicago Bears

After two weeks of rehashing and projecting, at last the Bears return to the field against the team that started their freefall last year with one single pass.  

The Washington Commanders are talked about like a potential Super Bowl team based on last year's run to the NFC championship game, but this year they haven't been a lot different in their results than the Bears and they definitely have issues. They have one more win but played one more game. They haven't been slaughtered by their coach's former team like the Bears, and they both run the ball and stop the run far better than the Bears.

"It's a week-to-week basis thing," Bear quarterback Caleb Williams said. "It's a week-to-week league."

In this case for the Bears, it's probably more appropriate to say every other  week since it's been so long since they played.

"There are teams that may have lost to a team that another team beat the week before where you feel and thought that they shouldn't," Williams said. "So, it's a week-to-week thing."

The Bears being less able to rely on a run defense or running game, they'll need the  strength of a full 53-man roster to beat such a good team on the road as 4 1/2-point underdogs, even if Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels is missing multiple receivers.

"We needed special teams to come out on top last (game)," Bears coach Ben Johnson said. "We needed defense to come through with all those turnovers or else we don't come out on top last. We needed offense despite how rocky it was in the first half to find a little bit of a groove there in the second half and score 16 points on four possessions.

"Each week's different, but you're never out of it, not in this league."

The Bears thought the Commanders were out of it last year until that ball flew fatefully toward a stack of players just in front of the goal line, and Tyrique Stevenson tipped it to the man he was supposed to be covering.

They'll try for payback behind a new coaching staff and with many new players.

It's the Bears and Commanders in the Hail Mary rematch, here's who wins and why.

Bears running vs. Commanders run defense

The Commanders, with 35-year-old linebacker Bobby Wagner and Daron Payne playing prominent roles on the inside, have been effective but not dominant against the run. They rank 17th but 10th in yards allowed per carry. It's been much like Caleb Williams said about the entire league. Washington has been run on three times and twice completely shut down opposing running games. The Bears and D'Andre Swift, on the other hand, have been consistently underperforming on the ground but in particular needed instances they have managed to get it done. The fourth quarter against Dallas and the goal-line run in the fourth quarter against the Raiders proved huge. They think they're on the verge of getting the running game to pop and getting Darnell Wright back, their best run blocker, can make a difference.  No Edge

Bears passing vs. Commanders pass defense

Nothing about the performance by Washington's pass defense says special and the opportunity exists for Williams, DJ Moore and Rome Odunze to attack, provided they can get the pass away. Washington's Dorance Armstrong, Von Miller, Javon Kinlaw and Payne give them experienced players who can apply heat. The Bears are starting entirely inexperienced Theo Benedet on Williams' blind side and that can be a problem. If Williams gets it away, the Commanders rank 24th in passer rating against and 27th in net passing yards allowed per attempt.  Edge to Bears

Commanders passing vs. Bears pass defense

The return of Kyler Gordon bolsters Chicago's secondary immensely, but he hasn't played this season and had injury issues in training camp, as well. It's most likely not going to be the slot corner the Bears have been used to seeing at this point. The Commanders have the same problems. Not having Terry McLaurin and Noah Brown, and with Deebo Samuel a bit off with a heel injury, means a heavy lean toward tight end Zach Ertz in a place on the field where the Bears' pass defense has been able to come up with takeaways. The Bears are 17th against the pass but No. 1 on third down at 29.27%. The Bears don't have much of a pass rush but keeping Daniels contained might be more important. No Edge

Commanders running vs. Bears run defense

T.J. Edwards' return, and also even Gordon's return to an extent, provide needed boosts to the Bears run defense but it's also been a run defense so porous because the defensive line isn't getting the job done. With Grady Jarrett unlikely to play, it might be even less effective. Daniels' running on planned runs or scrambles isn't all the Bears have to worry about on defense, as seventh-round draft pick Jacory Croskey-Merritt leads the NFL at 6.6 yards per carry. He didn't get more than 10 carries in a game, though, until last week in the win over the Chargers. Edge to Commanders

Special Teams

Returns by Luke McCaffrey and a veteran group of blockers on special teams have made the Commanders No. 1 in the league as a team returning kicks and they're eighth at covering them. They also can have Deebo Samuel bring back kick. Jaylin Lane's punt return average is an outstanding 14.8 yards but it's bolstered by one 90-yard TD return. However, they're less effective covering punts and the Bears' Devin Duvernay rates high with an 11.4-yard return average. The Bears normally rate edges over many opponents with kickers/punters but Tress Way has twice as many punts downed inside the 20 as the Bears' Tory Taylor and a slightly better average per punt. And while Cairo Santos has been more effective than Matt Gay, he also has an injury issue coming into the game. Edge to Commanders

Coaching

Some of the surprise element the Commanders had against the rest of the league with their offense last year and with Daniels is gone. The Dan Quinn defense is lacking secondary talent to make it as effective as many of his past defenses. The last two Ben Johnson offenses in Detroit had huge offensive explosions coming out of bye weeks, but that was with a different team. Johnson hasn't had the blocking up front and downfield in the running game to initiate much of what he wants to do with the running attack or screen game. No Edge

Intangibles

The weather forecast calls for a rainy day and that's something the Bears can't be happy about because it's much easier to attack on the ground on a sloppy field in the rain than it is to pass. And the Bears' offense has been only about passing. The extra element of the Hail Mary pass rematch, with it being a revenge game, can't really come into play in players' minds. However, you can bet many Bears players on defense would love to make a statement after the way they lost last year's game. No Edge

Prediction: Commanders 26, Bears 21

The Bears simply haven't earned enough stripes so far to think they're capable of beating a good team on the road in a setting as big as Monday Night Football. They found a way to lose their first MNF battle to start the season and they probably won't need to find one in this game because it's right there in front of them. His name is Jayden Daniels.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.



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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.