Bear Digest

Five warning signs for Chicago Bears to heed with season restarting

Analysis: From lack of time together as a team to inability to run the football, the Bears have obvious flaws showing up that must be addressed starting Monday.
Gene Chamberlain|
When the Bears come out of the tunnel in Washington on Monday night there are five warning signs to be addressed.
When the Bears come out of the tunnel in Washington on Monday night there are five warning signs to be addressed. | Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images

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Chicago Bears

The Bears are beginning practices Tuesday for their Monday night game against Washington with a sense of optimism and yet there are huge warning signs.

They held their annual team photo day, with the usual joking around and Caleb Williams shooting some interesting video in the process.

All is fun and games when you're riding consecutive wins into a bye, but statistics reveal a team waiting to crumble beneath the weight of several obvious flaws unless something improved during their week off.

Williams' passing in the second half of games is a primary reason they've managed two wins -- along with Josh Blackwell's hand. However, they're making it tough on a developing quarterback. This is obvious from a closer look at Williams' statistics, particularly his situational passing numbers.

When play resumes with the Commanders on Monday night, here are the warning signs for the Bears to heed.

5. Uncharted territory

Lack of time on task, or logging time playing together, is a problem for this team It affects numerous areas, from Williams needing to know the offense and his receivers on passing routes better, to the offensive line meshing as a cohesive blocking unit, to the running game breaking out on offense. All of their presnap penalties stem from this issue. On defense, a different scheme requires time on task before players can look instinctive—play without thinking so much.

The reason this ranks down the list this far is they've had four games together now.

The Jacksonville Jaguars are 4-1 with a new coaching staff. The Patriots are 3-2 with a new coaching staff. It's important, but not entirely critical, especially a quarter of the way into the season.

4. Poor health

No team is going to be full strength four game into an NFL season and the Bears have had to endure the loss of their best defensive player in Jaylon Johnson, their most consistent run defender in linebacker T.J. Edwards, their most explosive defensive player in slot cornerback Kyler Gordon and a promising pass rusher in Austin Booker with a knee injury. Edwards and Johnson were available only part of one game, the other two have been out all year.

They were without defensive tackle Grady Jarrett with a knee issue, tight end Colston Loveland with a hip injury and right tackle Darnell Wright for a game each.

Only Johnson is certain to be unavailable after the bye, although there has been no word on Booker's recovery. They need to start the 21-day window on him yet for a return from IR.

The status of Wright and Loveland is uncertain. Gordon and Edwards appeared ready to return as they practiced to start the bye week.

3. Pass rushing permitted

It's a problem when you have five sacks as a team and your opponent has one player, Dorance Armstrong, who has that many. The Bears are not finishing their pass rushes, and they've almost doubled their blitz percentage over the last two games from 12% to 23.5% by Pro Football Reference statistics measure. No one can be sure Booker's return means anything because he had no impact last year as a rookie and his league-high four sacks in preseason against mostly subs count for nothing against real NFL players now. The rush needs to be better from Montez Sweat, Dayo Odeyingbo, Gervon Dexter and whoever else lines up in pursuit of passers.

2. Go (with the running game)

They're putting too much pressure on their starting quarterback by beginning games without a rushing attack. It's simple and obvious.

Williams is at his worst when the Bears are tied in games or are in first quarters. He is 5-for-10 for 45 yards and two first downs when games are tied. He is completing 58.8% of passes (10 of 17) for 114 yards and a TD in first quarters.

It's first quarters and in tie games when running attacks are most critical as teams set the tone with physicality and probe for weaknesses. They try to establish the run to set up play-action.

Without a running game, they quickly get into situations where they trail and the running game becomes less important or even inconsequential.   

Williams has thrown 19 passes when tied or leading. He has thrown 87 passes with the Bears trailing.

Why isn't Williams' completion percentage increasing to hit Johnson's preset 70% target? They can't run the ball to take pressure off the pass. Throwing so much when trailing and so little when tied or leading is either a sign of a losing team or one without real offensive direction. There's no one who doubts the direction Johnson provides, so they better get the running attack working earlier in games or this situation will become even more serious than it already is.

The Bears sought to keep Caleb Williams upright by improving their pass blocking, but have they done so at the risk of making their run blocking poor?

1. Stop (the run)!

There is no way a team allowing 6.1 yards per rush can hope to challenge for a winning record or even be taken seriously for anything except a top 10 pick in the draft. That's not just bad, it's embarrassing.

They are paying close to $80 million in cap space this year for defensive linemen and linebackers and the end result has been a defense giving up the most yards per carry and one ranked 29th in sacks with 1.3 per game. It doesn't say much for those players or those who brought in the defensive linemen.

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.