D'Andre Swift headlines Bears' keys to victory in Week 6 vs Commanders

After a Week 5 bye and a long slate of Sunday games in Week 6, the Chicago Bears are finally back in action on Monday night. They face the Washington Commanders at Northwest Stadium, the very place, and almost exactly one year after, the infamous 'Fail Mary' that broke the 2024 Bears and sent them spiraling down a ten-game losing streak.

The good news for the Bears is that their bye week gave a few notable players time to recover from injuries as near full health returns to the team. Excepting Jaylon Johnson, who is still out indefinitely with a groin injury, only Grady Jarrett has been ruled out for Monday night's game. A clean injury report, however, leaves the Bears with no room for excuses against the Commanders.

This is a game the Bears can, and probably should, win, especially if they hit these three keys.

1. Hold the Commanders to less than 115 total rushing yards

The biggest mismatch of Monday's game is set to be Chicago's 31st-ranked run defense and Washington's league-leading rushing offense. The Commanders are averaging 156.4 rushing yards per game this season, which is something the Bears can't allow. The return of linebacker TJ Edwards should help tremendously in this regard, but the Bears still need much, much more from their front four.

If they can hold the Commanders to less than 115 total rushing yards, which would still be a lot but less than their average, that will force Jayden Daniels to throw the ball to a depleted receiving corps, which puts Chicago at an advantage.

Andrew Billing — David Banks-Imagn Images

2. D'Andre Swift much average 4.5 yards per carry

On the flip side of Chicago's run defense, their own rushing attack has been abysmal, averaging just 102.3 rushing yards per game, 9th-worst in the NFL. Most of the blame for this falls on D'Andre Swift, Chicago's highly paid RB1. He is averaging a paltry 3.3 yards per carry this season which is putting added pressure on Caleb Williams and the passing offense.

The run game's ineptitude nearly sank the Bears in Week 4 as they were consistently far behind the sticks. They got away with it against the Raiders, but that won't work against Washington. Swift needs to have his best game of the season on Monday night and keep the Bears' offense on schedule. If he can get to just 4.5 yards per carry, that should open things up for Williams to abuse Washington's poor secondary.

D'Andre Swif — Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn Images

3. Force three turnovers, including at least one interception

The Bears are currently tied for the fourth-best turnover margin in the NFL at +5. They've proven excellent at taking the ball away so far and at taking care of the ball on offense, and that can be a game-changer for them. Thus far, Jayden Daniels has not thrown any picks in the 2025 season. The Bears need to bring that streak to an end on Monday night.

If the Bears can force three turnovers, including at least one interception, that should be enough to win the turnover battle, which usually indicates who will win the game.

Final Prediction: Bears win 27-24

Truth be told, I only trust in the Bears enough to hit two of these keys at most. The Commanders will likely run all over this defense, which will keep them in the game and prevent the Bears from taking a commanding lead. This will be a close, back-and-forth game and will once again come down to the final possession.

This time, however, the Bears will prevail with a last second play as Williams drives the Bears into field goal range and Cairo Santos boots the game-winner as time expires. By Tuesday morning, there will be no denying that both Williams and the Bears are legit.

Kevin Byard II — Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn Images

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