Justin Fields Only Needs Some GM Help
Super Bowl week has arrived and with it the hype.
From the standpoint of the league's worst team, the obvious point of discussion for the Bears is quarterback Justin Fields and the comparisons to Philadelphia's Jalen Hurts.
It's two highly mobile quarterbacks, a year apart in the draft and both had shaky starts as rookie passers. However, the comparisons go much deeper.
By looking at Hurts, is it possible to see a Super Bowl quarterback in Fields or merely wishful thinking?
"He showed ability to be impactful with his legs," Bears GM Ryan Poles said of Fields at season's end. "There's flashes with his arm. Now if we can put that together, I think we have something really good."
It's the flashes with his arm Fields needs to expand, just as Hurts has.
For Starters
It's difficult to achieve an exact comparison because the teams are not similar and haven't been.
Fields arrived in Chicago in a down cycle and spent his first two years with a franchise being overturned, shaken up and then reset. Hurts became starter near the end of the Doug Pederson regime and GM Howie Roseman made a rebuild on the fly because he had many pieces still young and viable. It wasn't the same case with the Bears, where their old defense needed to be jettisoned.
However, the two quarterbacks' performances are very similar for the first two years taking into account the same number of throws.
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Hurts threw 148 times as a rookie. Taking 148 passes as a cutoff point for Fields, which came in the eighth game of his first year, their starts were Fields 90 of 148 for 946 yards with three TD passes and six interceptions for a passer rating of 69.26; Hurts with 77 of 148 for 1,061 yards and six TDs with four interceptions for a rating of 77.56.
So Hurts definitely had better overall initial statistics, but not by a lot. Both would be embarrassed by those passer ratings for their starts but Hurts' 7.2 yards per pass attempt is a great start compared to Fields' 6.4.
Both did this with offensive personnel disintegrating to some extent.
In fact, Hurts may have had an even harder time because his wide receivers were Jalen Reagor, Greg Ward and Travis Fulgham. A diminished Allen Robinson, Darnell Mooney and Damiere Byrd/Marquess Goodwin sounds pretty good by comparison.
Passing Progress
Hurts made strides in Year 2, but Fields may have done this to an even greater extent considering his circumstances.
After two seasons, the two had almost the exact same number of pass attempts. So there was no need to cut off the starts at Game 8 in Year 1 for Fields because he had more rookie starts and throws than Hurts did. After two seasons, Hurts had fewer starts, more games played but 580 pass attempts. Fields had 588 attempts. So it is a fair comparison.
Hurts was 342 of 580 (58.9%) for 4,205 yards with 22 TDs and 13 interceptions for an 84.73 rating. Fields had cut the yards-per-attempt deficit. He is at 7.0 to 7.2 for Hurts after two years. He had a better completion percentage and also reduced the passer rating advantage Hurts had, along with most other stats.
Fields was 351 of 588 (59.9%) with 4,112 yards. He has 24 TD passes to 22 by Hurts, although his interceptions remain high at 21 compared to Hurts' 13. Hurts' second season was 16 TDs and nine interceptions. Fields, from Week 9 of Year 1 to now, had 21 TD passes and 15 interceptions. So this was very similar. Fields' passer rating after two years is 79.69, which cuts Hurts' edge by a few points over the same period.
The Running QB
Fields' has run for 1,563 yards on 232 attempts. Hurts through two years had 202 attempts for 1,138 yards. Hurts ran for 13 TDs and Fields 10 through two seasons.
So Fields has been a better runner, and the 1,143-yard effort this year led to this.
Whether this is a hinderance or a help to this point is debatable because his ability to run can take away from buying time with his feet and throwing late to a receiver who gets open in the scramble drill. He'll take off and run instead of waiting.
Still, it would be very difficult to argue Hurts is a better runner than Fields, who has better speed and can score from 67 yards away. He had three runs longer than 50 yards in 2022.
Tipping the Balance
While Hurts was slightly better through two years as a passer, it was not by a great extent.
Toss in these additional factors and the picture looks a little different.
In Year 2, Fields had a receiver corps of Darnell Mooney for just 12 games, Chase Claypool joining at midseason and getting injured for three games, and Equanimeous St. Brown and a cast of thousands it seemed—the group of castoffs from other teams.
Meanwhile, the Eagles upgraded in Year 2 by adding DeVonta Smith, Quez Watkins and Jalen Reagor to their tight end combo of Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert (74 catches, 1,019 yards, 6 TDs combined). Smith had a full season and much better numbers than the Bears got from Darnell Mooney in Fields' second year. In fact, Watkins in 2021 had more catches (43) and yards (647) than Mooney had for 2022 due to his injury. The Bears really only had one tight end catching passes in Fields' second season—Kmet with 50—as the other two combined for six receptions.
Not only did Hurts in Year 2 benefit from better receivers, but he also had an offensive line far better than Fields had in Year 2 according to the analytical website Pro Football Focus.
When Year 2 ended for Hurts, PFF had ranked his offensive line fourth in the league and then a few months later No. 1, just before his third season started.
Meanwhile, Fields played as a rookie for the offensive line when it ranked last in the NFL. At the end of 2022, the line had improved according to PFF and they were 14th. That was 10 spots behind where the Eagles were after two of Hurts' seasons.
Not only that, but the line remained mostly intact for Hurts over those two seasons while Fields played behind one that changed nine games this past season and has had no continuity.
It definitely doesn't help shaky pass blocking when Fields holds the ball too long. He averaged 3.12 seconds according to NFL NextGen Stats, putting him near the bottom of the league for getting the ball out quickly.
However, Hurts held the ball 3.12 seconds in his second season and was still able to progress as a passer because his line provided better time. He wasn't getting sacked 55 times as Fields did this year. Hurts got sacked 26 times while holding the ball 3.12 seconds in Year 2.
Year 3
It almost seems comical now when you think about reporters asking after the season whether Fields was going to be Ryan Poles' quarterback starter in 2023—not because it was a bad question but because the real question should have been what are you going to do like Howie Roseman did to complement your starting QB in Year 3?
That's obviously the one factor holding Fields back from where Hurts went in Year 3. He doesn't have the team Hurts had at the end of Year 2.
It's not as much as case of Fields needing to progress greatly as it is will his GM do what Roseman did to help Hurts for Year 3?
Roseman got Hurts an ace receiver in A.J. Brown. The effective offensive line he put together by the end of Hurts' first year was still intact and largely healthy for two full seasons heading into the third season. He had a big-time defense supporting the offense.
And here is Hurts in the Super Bowl after throwing for 3,701 yards, 22 TDs, a passer rating of 101.5 and 8.0 yards an attempt in Year 3.
A big advance is nothing beyond Fields' ability to accomplish because he has already shown through two seasons he has the ability to get almost to where Hurts was and without any support.
The Assessment
It was another comical moment when some reports trickled last week that Fields would apparently be the QB going forward.
Of course he is. Poles already said he would. Dog bites man.
When asked at the postseason press conference, Poles said, "Yeah."
Yeah means affirmative, not maybe or I might decide later and not tell anyone and leak it. He said "yeah."
Poles then had added that he would do as he does every year and assess the talent in the draft and he would have to be "blown away" by a passer to alter plans and draft a quarterback.
The Bears haven't even completed assessments of the draft class.
They haven't even had the combine yet and none of the top QBs go to the Senior Bowl. So that's all still to come.
But Poles has a quarterback who is every bit what Hurts was through two seasons and the numbers as well as their situations through two seasons say this.
Unless there is some sort of complete collapse by Fields, the difference for Year 3 has to be what Poles will do for his QB and not what the QB will do for him.
First Season
| QB, Year | Passes | Completions | Yards | TDs | INT | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jalen Hurts 2020 | 148 attempts | 77 | 1,061 | 6 | 4 | 77.56 |
Justin Fields 2021* | 148 attempts | 90 | 946 | 3 | 6 | 69.26 |
*Through 148 passes (week 8)
Through Second Season
| QB | Attempts | Completions | Yards | TDs | INTs | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jalen Hurts | 580 | 342 | 4,205 | 22 | 13 | 84.73 |
Justin Fields** | 588 | 351 | 4,112 | 24 | 21 | 79.69 |
**Pass No. 149 Season 1 through end of Year 2
Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven
