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Chicago Bears 2026 Forecast Shows How Ben Johnson's Year 2 Could Turn Tense

Our game-by-game Bears forecast shows how Ben Johnson's second season in Chicago could turn tense as a brutal 2026 schedule tests Caleb Williams.
Gene Chamberlain|
D'Andre Swift dives towards the goal line against the Carolina Panthers in a 2024 Bears win.
D'Andre Swift dives towards the goal line against the Carolina Panthers in a 2024 Bears win. | Daniel Bartel-Imagn Images

In this story:

Chicago Bears

Ben Johnson and Caleb Williams brought the Bears a division title after six seasons without one.

The real goal announced in the past was not winning a division title but repeated success. Winners get tougher schedules and must recognize this but deal with it.

There are breaks in when teams play and where they play throughout a schedule. They might be good breaks or tough breaks.

The bye can enter in, and so, too, can the amount of rest a team gets. The Bears will be a well-rested group this year and fresher than opponents based on not facing a single team coming off a full bye week.

Can the Bears really pull off back-to-back division titles for the first time since 2005-06?

Could they even do what they did the last time it happened, and advance to a Super Bowl?

Here's one projection of how this schedule will go for the Bears in 2026.

Win: Bears 27, Panthers 24

At Carolina, Sept. 13

Bryce Young has help he didn't have in 2024 when the Bears saw him, but the Bears' have Ben Johnson and if Matt Eberflus' team could rout the Panthers then this team should at least take the opener on the road with a late Cairo Santos field goal.

Win: Bears 28, Vikings 20

At Soldier Field, Sept. 20

A charged-up crowd for the home opener greets a Bears team that should remember two tight games against Minnesota last year. Kyler Murray is still working into the offense at this point and the Vikings' revamped defensive front without Jonathan Greenard, Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave will be susceptible to the Bears’ running game.

Loss: Eagles 26, Bears 20

Soldier Field, Sept. 28

The crowd will be cranked up for Monday Night Football game and this time Philadelphia will be healthier than last year when D'Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai helped combine for 281 rushing yards against the Eagles' front. The Eagles' offensive line should be better than the one the Bears saw in Philly.

Win: Bears 30, Jets 20

Soldier Field, Oct.4

The last of three straight home games, and it won't be as easy as it looks on paper, as they go up against QB Geno Smith, but more importantly face Aaron Glenn. If any coach in the league outside of Dan Campbell knows what Johnson is up to, it should be the former Lions defensive coordinator. This looks like a rout, but on short rest it might take longer.

Loss: Packers 19, Bears 17

At Green Bay, Oct. 11

This rivalry has been restored more to the natural order of things after two Bears wins at Soldier Field. The home team should have the advantage again. Williams had a habit last year of falling behind against the Packers and then coming back. Doing the same might come back to bite him here.

Loss: Falcons 28, Bears 27

At Atlanta, Oct. 18

Atlanta had the offensive talent last year to win big games and win its division, and has bolstered its defense since Ian Cunningham left the Bears and took over personnel -- or at least took over the personnel side to everyone in the world except the NFL. Tua Tagovailoa should make much better use of a group of real weapons than Michael Penix did, and Atlanta's defense should be improved enough at home to knock off the Bears. The team that Matt Ryan is a figurehead personnel boss for will get this win.

Win: Bears 34, Patriots 20

At Soldier Field: Oct. 22

The Bears usually play well on Thursday Night Football, with four wins in their last six games, and especially coming off a disappointing and heart-breaking loss they'll be ready to face a Super Bowl team. Garrett Bradbury will flourish facing his old team and Will Campbell's short arms won't be able to handle the pass rush of Austin Booker and Montez Sweat.

Patriots coach Mike Vrabel congratulates offensive tackle Will Campbell after a touchdown against the Carolina Panthers.
Patriots coach Mike Vrabel congratulates offensive tackle Will Campbell after a touchdown against the Carolina Panthers. | Bob DeChiara-Imagn Images

Loss: Seahawks 19, Bears 13

At Seattle, Nov. 2

Johnson's offense will run up against it facing the Seattle defense. It would be easy to see the Seahawks' offense falling off this year without Kenneth Walker and with a new offensive coordinator. But Mike Macdonald's defensive scheme is in place and they'll have replaced and moved on from  new Bears safety Coby Bryant. The loud Seattle environment is not the kind of place where Williams has thrived so far.

Win: Bears 31, Buccaneers 23

At Soldier Field, Nov. 8

Another night game, the Bears' nemesis, Sunday Night Football. They've won only two of the last 12 appearing on it. This time, though, Johnson's offense will be shifting into higher gear against a Tampa Bay defense that has fallen off the last three seasons since it was on top in winning the Super Bowl.
Look for Williams to produce a big night against a struggling pass defense. Baker Mayfield has thrown 37 interceptions over the last three years and that's not the number to take against Bryant, Kyler Gordon and Dillon Thieneman.

Week 10: Bye

It's about time the Bears got a midseason week off to heal up injuries. Another scheduling break.

Win: Bears 37, Saints 17

At Soldier Field, Nov. 22

The Bears' self-scout on offense pays off with big point production against an improved Saints team that still needs to improve much more to compete against the NFC North champs. It's Dennis Allen's second straight year of revenge against his old team.

Loss: Lions 29, Bears 24

At Detroit, Nov. 26 

It won't be the stupid kind of loss the Bears had in the last Thanksgiving game under Matt Eberflus but so far Allen's defenses have had trouble early in games stopping Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Co. The offense is constantly fighting an uphill battle. They'll figure it out eventually but expect it to take one more game because this is a short work week.

Win: Bears 31, Jaguars 20

At Soldier Field, Dec. 6

The mini-bye will rejuvenate the Bears defensively and they'll swarm the ball and Trevor Lawrence in this one much the way they did against Jacksonville in London two years ago.

Win: Bears 41, Dolphins 20

At Miami, Dec. 13

It's time to make a playoff push, and facing one of the NFL's worst teams this season will let the Bears do it. They should dominate this game on both sides of the ball from before warmups. Malik Willis will wish he was backing up Jordan Love again in this one.

Loss: Bills 24, Bears 21

At Buffalo, Dec. 19

Without a consistent pass rush, it's hard to see how the Bears can hope to stop Buffalo and Josh Allen at game's end in a game resembling the pace and physicality of the playoffs.

Win: Bears 27, Packers 20

At Soldier Field, Dec. 25

Love runs up against Booker again and it's never pretty when that happens. Booker will get into double-digit sacks for the season in this game, Williams breaks that much-publicized 4,000-yard barrier for the first time in this win.

Win: Bears 20, Lions 17

At Soldier Field, Jan. 3

The playoff push continues and Johnson finally can say he beat Campbell. The running game rises to the occasion for the Bears, who will also hit Detroit with a trick pass for a TD.

Loss: Vikings 20, Bears 17

At Minneapolis, Jan. 10

Losing this to Brian Flores and his defense doesn't cost the Bears a playoff spot, as they're already in as wild cards with a 10-7 record.

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.