Bear Digest

Chicago Bears and San Francisco 49ers who wins and why for Week 17

An analysis of the positional group battles for the Bears and the 49ers in Sunday night's game with a final call on winner.
Gene Chamberlain|
Caleb Williams is sacked by 49ers defensive tackle Maliek Collins in last year's 49ers win over the Bears.
Caleb Williams is sacked by 49ers defensive tackle Maliek Collins in last year's 49ers win over the Bears. | Cary Edmondson-Imagn Images

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Chicago Bears

Ben Johnson definitely knows offense.

When he sees this week's opponent with quarterback Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle and coach Kyle Shanahan, Johnson knows the Bears' own offense and Caleb Williams will need to come prepared for a shootout. If not, they could get left behind by a team that hasn't punted since November.

"Yeah, I mean, they’re hot right now," Johnson said. "I  think the play caller, I think Shanahan, I think I said it a few days ago, he’s one of the best in the business at doing this. The playmakers are some of the top at their positions between Kittle, McCaffrey, Purdy is coming on. He’s doing a great job throwing with timing and anticipation. And if you give him time back there, he can cut you up.

"So, the only thing that’s a little bit different than the San Francisco offenses of the past is they probably feature the pass a little bit more than the run. I said, they are hot right now. We got to be on our mess."

They have been in recent games and performed that way against tougher competition. It's likely to be no easier in what shapes up as a playoff type of battle with NFC seeding on the line.

The 49ers' offense has been so strong it affects opposing offenses. The Colts, for example, abandoned their strength of running Jonathan Taylor to try and keep up with the scoring pace.

The Bears still can be top seeds and are second in the NFC now at 11-4. The 49ers are also 11-4  and with a chance at top seed.

It's the Bears and the 49ers in Santa Clara, Calif. on Sunday Night Football. Here's who wins and why.

Bears running vs. 49ers run defense

The 49ers defense is much better stopping the run than the pass, ranking eighth overall, but on a per carry basis they're only 15th. They're very vulnerable around left end at over 7 yards an attempt. Both of their defensive tackles, Kalia Davis and Alfred Collins, are big and capable of causing problems but so far have been victimized for gaping holes up front. D'Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai will be looking to capitalize in the league's second-rank running attack. Teams can run on the 49ers when they stick to it, like the Browns (138 yards) and Titans (136) did, but not every team is so patient going against San Francisco's potent passing attack. The Cardinals had 36 yards rushing, Carolina 69 and the Colts 58 within the last five games. It's like the 49ers' passing attack works as their own best run defense. No Edge.

Bears passing vs. 49ers pass defense

Getting back Luther Burden is a huge break for the Bears' passing game and helps with yards after catch. The way the Bears beat the Packers could be a huge boost if Caleb Williams builds on it because he unlocked the secret of finding DJ Moore downfield. One problem the Bears' passing attack had last week and in a few recent games has been keeping pressure out of Williams' face even if they've kept the sack totals down. The 49ers don't seem to pose a problem here as they are last in the NFL with 18 sacks after losing Nick Bosa. They're only 24th defending the pass, although their front presents some exotic looks, like the wide nine that gave the Bears trouble when Cleveland used it. Edge to Bears

49ers running vs. Bears run defense

San Francisco's running attack is capable but Shanahan has leaned more to the pass. They ran for 145 yards last week and 138 the previous game, but in three of the previous four games failed to reach 96 yards. The Niners are only 25th in rushing, and next to last in yards per carry (3.6), which is unusual for Shanahan's offenses. McCaffrey is probably a bigger threat as a receiver than runner at this point but still can break away. The Bears' run defense has struggled with consistency but seems to come up with big plays on big downs, and did last week against Green Bay despite allowing 192 yards. Having both linebackers T.J. Edwards and Tremaine Edmunds makes a difference. No Edge

49ers passing vs. Bears pass defense

The Bears' pass defense has allowed an average of 182 yards a game in the last six, but this is easily the most dangerous passing game they've faced since possibly the Cowboys game in Week 3. The main issue is it's unorthodox to have a tight end and running back as the chief targets to stop. Juaun Jennings is the counter threat but is dangerous. The Bears did hold up well under fire against Green Bay in two games, though. Much depends for the Bears on whether C.J. Gardner-Johnson is up to defending the slot and screen game after a knee injury last week.  Edge to 49ers

Special teams

Skyy Moore averages 12.2 yards and is a threat in the punt return game on par or even a little better than Devin Duvernay is for the Bears and San Francisco has had a nice mix on kick returns with Moore as the speed returner averaging 28.1 and Brian Robinson Jr. as a power returner at 31.1.

Former Bears kicker Eddy Pineiro is outperforming not only Cairo Santos but every other kicker with a 96.4% average on field goals, including 6 of 7 from 50+.  About the only thing the 49ers don't excel at is punt for distance and cover punts, but when you haven't punted since November what difference does that make? To top this off, the Bears have had key special teams players Duvernay, Josh Blackwell, Nick McCloud and D'Marco Jackson out much of this week with illness. Edge to 49ers

Coaching

Kyle Shanahan and defensive coordinator Robert Saleh have done spectacular jobs holding together a 49ers team dealing with injuries all season to key players like Nick Bosa, Fred Warner and Purdy. The Bears defense has done the same thing under Dennis Allen with injured personnel but in their case almost all the injuries were to players who were out and have returned. The 49ers are actually a bit more predictable than in the past because they don't run it as much, but they're still executing well. No Edge

Intangibles

The Bears never play well on trips to play the 49ers, but in the few instances they did they had potent offenses and they have one now that is ranked fourth in yards and 10th in scoring. San Francisco is hot since Purdy returned but three games came against the Browns, the Titans and Cardinals. Their schedule has been the inverse of what the Bears had, where they faced weaker teams early and tougher teams late. The trip west during Christmas week is distracting for the Bears but the 49ers had to play on Monday night and then return to the coast. No Edge

Prediction: 49ers 26, Bears 24

FanDuel line: 49ers by 3 (over/under 52 1/2).

Pineiro and tight end Jake Tonges come back to haunt their former team. The Bears have the art of the comeback down well but doing it on the road against a good team is never a simple matter.

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.