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Bears Have 4 Reasons to Ignore the Year 2 Regression Warnings

Regression warnings are piling up on the Bears, but Ben Johnson, Caleb Williams and a healthier defense give Chicago real reasons to push back in 2026.
Gene Chamberlain|
Ben Johnson's impact on the Bears should be even greater in Year 2 based on his stint in Detroit.
Ben Johnson's impact on the Bears should be even greater in Year 2 based on his stint in Detroit. | Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

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Chicago Bears

To be sure, there are plenty of reasons to doubt the Bears' ability to remain atop the NFC North or in the NFC playoff picture even with Caleb Williams catching last year late in games.

The main one simply is the level and balance of competition. Numerous NFC teams are bunched up in a competitive area and four comprise the entire NFC North. It's tough to move ahead of the flock or just to keep pace. Something as simple as a more difficult schedule can account for a big drop, and the Bears are facing that tougher slate.

Numerous offseason predictions have put the Bears among the playoff teams most likely to decline, and now the analytical site Pro Football Focus has joined the rush that already included CBS Sports and Yahoo Sports, among others.

PFF's Bradley Locker put the Bears front and center among playoff teams likely to take a step back this season. Citing the more difficult schedule, loss of center Drew Dalman with Garrett Bradbury not a comparable replacement, and the lack of pass rush pressure, Locker builds a case for regression.

It's not a great deal different than what Yahoo Sports veteran writer Frank Schwab said when he lumped the Bears in with the Patriots as a team headed on the down elevator, or what CBS Sports' Tyler Sullivan wrote, although he had them only fourth-most likely division winner to decline.

It is difficult for PFF to get past the defensive issues the Bears could have.

"Defense is where more anguish surrounds the Bears," Locker wrote. "The team’s unit ranked 21st in EPA per play last year, with the big culprit the 26th-ranked pressure rate. Chicago’s defensive line looks concerning, with Montez Sweat the only returning starter to produce even a 63.0 overall PFF grade or 45 pressures.

"In the secondary, Chicago is relying on better play from corners Jaylon Johnson and Tyrique Stevenson, who both fell below a 62.5 PFF coverage mark."

Yet, there are reasons to doubt this anticipated regression. Here's what they're not seeing that they should, ranked in order of importance.

4. Offensive line trouble

While Dalman's play has been praised by PFF and others, it was PFF's own grading that told a different story. Dalman experienced a mediocre finish to his season. Only once in the final six games did he experience a PFF grade higher than 60, following a good start.

Bradbury, meanwhile, had his best grade of the year in the playoffs against Denver. While his overall play didn't get graded as high as Dalman's, he is very experienced with the task at hand. He just started every game at center for a playoff team with a young starting quarterback and was a key to why a line that had struggled so often in the past so suddenly turned it around.

Meanwhile at left tackle, the Bears likely won't have Ozzy Trapilo but his rookie blocking grades from PFF were not as good as what Braxton Jones had as a rookie or what he had in 2024 prior to a season-ending ankle injury that carried over to last year. If he merely regains where he was in 2024 he's ahead of what Trapilo brought the Bears last year.

3. Healthy defense

While the pass rush definitely has been neglected through the offseason, the entire defense is expected to be back healthy now.

They played so many games without Kyler Gordon and Jaylon Johnson last year that it was remarkable how they produced 33 takeaways.

Their continued absence from OTAs can't be construed as a positive but it's a long way from now until training camp. There's plenty of time for both to be full strength to begin camp.

The Bears lost more total games to injuries than any team (336), according to Sports Info Solutions. The large majority of those came on defense.

They played last year without two starting linebackers much of the time and for a while without their top four linebackers. While defensive end is a problem and they weren't a force while full strength, they lost both Dayo Odeyingbo and Shemar Turner for half the season, and defensive tackle Grady Jarrett didn't get close to full health until the stretch run after an early knee injury. It could very well look like a different defense, and actually will with changes made to add speed.

2. NFC North

While the Bears' failure to add pass rush help gets cited as a major offseason problem, they aren't alone at experiencing what has been viewed within the division as a mediocre offseason. When Sullivan graded every team or their offseason earlier this spring, the Bears tied for the highest grade. They had the same grade as Minnesota and Detroit, a C.

Green Bay had only a C-, and that was before Josh Jacobs was charge with several crimes that could be a problem if he is found guilty. Even if he isn't, the league could weight in on it.

The Packers also must cope with the fact they may not have a healthy Micah Parsons or even tight end Tucker Kraft back to start training camp and possibly the season.

1. The QB-coach connection

It's not just Caleb Williams' expected improvement in Year 2 of the offense that leads to optimism about a better passing attack, but also his pairing with Johnson.

This is what happened in Detroit in Jared Goff's second season under Johnson.

Goff threw for a career high of 261 first downs, a climb of 34 first downs. He hasn't had a boost like this since back when he entered — coincidentally enough, Year 3 in the NFL. That's when he climbed by 60 first downs. Williams is in his third year.

One thing Johnson did well working with Goff in Year 3 was getting him to recognize more when to dial it down. Goff's average intended air yards in Year 1 under Johnson was 7.0. In Year 2, Goff dropped it to 6.7. The throws downfield gave way to something shorter. By the third year, he had Goff down to 6.3 yards per attempt. As that came down, yards after the catch soared from 6.0 to 6.8 by Year 3 under Johnson.

All the big plays stopped resulting from heaving it downfield but improved to coming on a safer route with yards after catch.

Williams' average intended air yards last year was a whopping 8.5, and it should plummet after working another year under Johnson. The end result should be something much better than the 5.6 yards after catch on average that Williams had last season. Shorter, more accurate throws should result and Willliams would have a chance for a better completion percentage.

All of this occurred for Goff in Year 2 but there is more to Johnson working with Williams in Year 2.

It's not just Williams, but his receivers who have more familiarity with what Johnson wants. The way routes are run is critical. They know how it works with this offense after a year in it.

As Johnson pointed in the offseason, he wasn't familiar with his players, and neither were his assistants.

Familiarity works both ways and the end result is just one more reason to doubt regression.

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.

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